Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | UL +475 UAB -750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +12 | 184 | Lost |
| Massey | UAB -8.6 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.9 (+22.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -6.7 (-5.3) | 151.1 (+32.9) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -7.5 (-4.5) | 145.7 (+38.3) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -6.4 (-5.6) | 150.1 (+33.9) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -6.4 (-5.6) | 150.2 (+33.8) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 5-12 | 14-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -11.8 (#342) | -3.2 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.40 (#334) | -1.71 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.47 (#330) | -2.14 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#238) | 0.425 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 26.4 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.8% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 60.0% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 42.6% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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