Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | PFW -225 DREX +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +6 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -5.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (+19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -3.2 (+2.8) | 143.2 (+24.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -2.9 (+3.1) | 142.2 (+25.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -3.0 (+3.0) | 143.1 (+24.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -3.2 (+2.8) | 143.4 (+24.6) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-10 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#73) | 1.6 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#172) | 0.62 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#158) | -0.22 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#111) | 0.494 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 14.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 11.6% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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