Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | LT -275 SIU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +6 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | LT -7.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -5.8 (+0.2) | 142.7 (+21.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -7.7 (-1.7) | 146.6 (+17.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -5.5 (+0.5) | 143.9 (+20.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -5.5 (+0.5) | 143.2 (+20.8) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#58) | 0.6 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#68) | -0.77 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#78) | -0.57 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#210) | 0.486 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 2.05 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 60.5% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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