Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | JAX -170 MER +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +1 | 179 | Lost |
| Massey | JAX -8.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (+29.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -6.3 (-7.3) | 142.5 (+36.5) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -5.1 (-6.1) | 142.7 (+36.3) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -4.7 (-5.7) | 143.3 (+35.7) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -6.5 (-7.5) | 144.5 (+34.5) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 7-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#111) | -4.5 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#49) | -1.66 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.99 (#49) | -2.51 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.667 (#19) | 0.393 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 25.0% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 12.2% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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