Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | FOR +1300 PSU -4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +19 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | PSU -19.7 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.6 (-12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -13.3 (-5.7) | 155.8 (-4.8) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -14.8 (-4.2) | 156.5 (-5.5) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -14.0 (-5.0) | 155.2 (-4.2) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -14.3 (-4.7) | 155.8 (-4.8) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 6-14 |
| Home | 8-8 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#211) | 17.4 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#198) | 1.90 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#252) | 2.76 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#245) | 0.560 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 52.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 60.3% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 25.4% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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