Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | ODU +800 HPU -1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ODU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +6 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | HPU -15.7 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -12.0 (+6.0) | 141.3 (-1.3) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -12.2 (+6.2) | 139.5 (+0.5) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -12.1 (+6.1) | 139.9 (+0.1) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -12.4 (+6.4) | 141.9 (-1.9) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ODU | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-2 |
| Home | 7-9 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 81.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -17.0 (#357) | -1.3 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.86 (#345) | 0.25 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.12 (#344) | 0.05 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.299 (#362) | 0.471 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ODU | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.2% | 33.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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