Betting Lines
| Spread | MERC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Under |
| Money | MERC -225 NHVN +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MERC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MERC +19 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | MERC -6.9 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MERC -3.5 (+15.5) | 125.3 (-4.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MERC -3.9 (+15.1) | 122.9 (-1.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MERC -3.2 (+15.8) | 122.8 (-1.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MERC -3.9 (+15.1) | 123.2 (-2.2) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | MERC 61 – 57 NHVN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MERC | NHVN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-14 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#280) | -11.3 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#305) | -1.85 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.14 (#311) | -2.40 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#300) | 0.430 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MERC | NHVN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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