Betting Lines
| Spread | BC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | BC -145 MOST +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +2 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -0.6 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BC -0.9 (+1.1) | 141.5 (+8.5) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BC -0.3 (+1.7) | 143.3 (+6.7) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -0.4 (+1.6) | 144.7 (+5.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BC -0.3 (+1.7) | 142.7 (+7.3) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 2-18 |
| Home | 9-8 | 7-8 |
| Away | 0-10 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#164) | 0.7 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#190) | 0.87 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#196) | 1.21 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#116) | 0.603 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 43.2 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.4 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 33.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 35.7% |
Game Analysis
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