Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | RGV -1200 LEM +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +20 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | RGV -17.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (+20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RGV -12.6 (+7.4) | 148.0 (+26.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RGV -11.7 (+8.3) | 147.8 (+26.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RGV -12.6 (+7.4) | 148.9 (+25.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RGV -13.8 (+6.2) | 147.8 (+26.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 4-12 |
| Home | 12-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 2-11 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 81.4 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#92) | -6.3 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#135) | -0.79 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#144) | -0.77 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#95) | 0.441 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 12.6% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 60.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.3% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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