Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -700 UTSA +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +14 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -18.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -12.7 (+1.3) | 143.3 (+14.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -13.8 (+0.2) | 145.0 (+13.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -13.2 (+0.8) | 145.0 (+13.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -14.5 (-0.5) | 143.3 (+14.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 9-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 77.5 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#97) | -7.3 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#55) | -2.17 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#67) | -3.52 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#52) | 0.387 (#319) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 32.5% |
| 3PT% | 26.1% | 25.9% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 38.1% |
| TOV% | 23.8% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 31.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 60.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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