Betting Lines
| Spread | UTEP -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | SJSU +165 UTEP -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +6 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | UTEP -10.5 (+16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTEP -5.5 (+11.5) | 135.5 (+0.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTEP -6.1 (+12.1) | 136.2 (-0.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTEP -5.1 (+11.1) | 136.9 (-0.9) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTEP -5.4 (+11.4) | 137.3 (-1.3) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-9 | 11-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -10.3 (#336) | 0.2 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.04 (#361) | 1.98 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.86 (#359) | 2.35 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.310 (#359) | 0.663 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 43.2% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 25.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 17.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 32.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 59.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 49.0% |
Game Analysis
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