Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | COLO +850 CONN -1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +1 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -12.2 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -5.6 (+6.6) | 145.3 (-0.3) | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -7.2 (+8.2) | 145.0 (-0.0) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -6.6 (+7.6) | 147.2 (-2.2) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -6.4 (+7.4) | 146.3 (-1.3) | 25% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-21 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-7 | 14-2 |
| Away | 0-10 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#90) | 17.5 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#95) | 0.83 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#84) | 1.42 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#100) | 0.490 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 52.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 41.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 61.1% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 41.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 42.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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