Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Under |
| Money | UNC +150 AUB -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +13 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -3.4 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.9 (-16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -3.1 (-9.9) | 166.0 (-9.0) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -3.3 (-9.7) | 164.3 (-7.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -1.9 (-11.1) | 163.3 (-6.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -1.7 (-11.3) | 166.2 (-9.2) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 32-6 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 11-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 83.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 17.6 (#11) | 21.0 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#16) | 3.12 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.93 (#11) | 4.82 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.764 (#4) | 0.755 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 53.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 1.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 62.2% |
| TOV% | 12.2% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 39.1% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 42.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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