Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | DAY +400 ISU -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +5 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | ISU -4.3 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+28.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -1.6 (-3.4) | 143.5 (+29.5) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -1.9 (-3.1) | 143.5 (+29.5) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -1.3 (-3.7) | 144.8 (+28.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -0.4 (-4.6) | 144.0 (+29.0) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 16-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#65) | 12.4 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#66) | 0.33 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#53) | 0.74 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#52) | 0.474 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.00 | 1.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 32.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 25.2% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 77.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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