Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | CHST +1000 DREX -2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CHST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +12 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | DREX -22.4 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (+17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -15.9 (+3.9) | 137.7 (+16.3) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -16.6 (+4.6) | 139.1 (+14.9) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -18.0 (+6.0) | 138.4 (+15.6) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -17.5 (+5.5) | 136.8 (+17.2) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CHST | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 3-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 1-19 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.5 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -20.8 (#363) | 1.6 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.86 (#360) | 0.18 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.98 (#362) | -0.59 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.377 (#328) | 0.471 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CHST | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 32.9% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 37.9% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 13.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 10.9% |
| DRB% | 61.9% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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