Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | SIE +215 JAX -260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +11 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | JAX -7.3 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -4.3 (-6.7) | 140.7 (-1.7) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -5.3 (-5.7) | 140.5 (-1.5) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -4.2 (-6.8) | 141.4 (-2.4) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -3.9 (-7.1) | 142.5 (-3.5) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIE | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#260) | 2.4 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#134) | 0.23 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#175) | 1.38 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#124) | 0.541 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIE | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 15.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 23.9% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 40.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 14.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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