Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | SIU -175 EKU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EKU +5 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | EKU -1.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EKU -1.2 (-3.8) | 142.7 (+6.3) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EKU -0.6 (-4.4) | 144.9 (+4.1) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EKU -1.7 (-3.3) | 145.8 (+3.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EKU -1.4 (-3.6) | 144.9 (+4.1) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-8 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#153) | 2.2 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#255) | -0.82 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#226) | -1.52 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#192) | 0.470 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 15.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 38.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 14.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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