Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | FOR +500 SF -725 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +21 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -9.7 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (+13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -8.1 (-12.9) | 134.6 (+14.4) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -9.3 (-11.7) | 136.0 (+13.0) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -8.8 (-12.2) | 137.7 (+11.3) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -7.8 (-13.2) | 136.0 (+13.0) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-8 | 17-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#208) | 7.6 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#212) | 1.18 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#263) | 2.46 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#234) | 0.543 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 43.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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