Betting Lines
| Spread | M-OH -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | MER +140 M-OH -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | M-OH +3 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | M-OH -1.3 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | M-OH -2.7 (-0.3) | 148.4 (-1.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | M-OH -2.2 (-0.8) | 147.1 (-0.1) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | M-OH -3.7 (+0.7) | 148.3 (-1.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | M-OH -2.3 (-0.7) | 150.5 (-3.5) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 14-4 |
| Home | 7-6 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-11 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#222) | -1.4 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#191) | 0.74 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#220) | 0.95 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#177) | 0.524 (#142) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 12.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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