Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | APSU +100 GAST -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +12 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -2.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-36.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -1.6 (+10.4) | 141.4 (-29.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -0.9 (+11.1) | 141.5 (-29.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -1.7 (+10.3) | 142.4 (-30.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -2.1 (+9.9) | 144.3 (-32.3) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-13 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#173) | -2.6 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#64) | -0.37 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#82) | -0.68 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#46) | 0.483 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 11.4% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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