Betting Lines
| Spread | UND -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | BCU +135 UND -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BCU +12 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UND -0.3 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UND -0.8 (+12.8) | 134.7 (+11.3) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UND -1.3 (+13.3) | 139.0 (+7.0) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UND -1.2 (+13.2) | 137.3 (+8.7) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UND -0.7 (+12.7) | 136.3 (+9.7) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BCU | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 8-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-12 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 82.2 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#230) | -2.7 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#264) | 0.86 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#274) | 1.12 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#232) | 0.576 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BCU | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 64.0% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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