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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–5 on winners
spread MAE 8.1
17 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prairie View A&M
@
Southern
|
+3.2 | 171.4 | 61% | 89–85 | ✗ |
Oregon
@
Rutgers
|
-5.1 | 141.9 | 32% | 85–88 | ✗ |
Yale
@
Brown
|
-9.3 | 150.3 | 20% | 70–53 | ✓ |
Milwaukee
@
Green Bay
|
+1.5 | 148.9 | 55% | 76–79 | ✓ |
Dartmouth
@
Harvard
|
+7.0 | 147.5 | 74% | 76–68 | ✗ |
Pennsylvania
@
Princeton
|
+0.5 | 143.7 | 52% | 76–78 | ✓ |
William & Mary
@
Charleston
|
-3.8 | 157.7 | 36% | 79–88 | ✗ |
Lamar
@
SE Louisiana
|
-0.0 | 134.0 | 50% | 52–60 | ✗ |
Texas Southern
@
Grambling
|
+13.8 | 152.3 | 90% | 67–84 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
UT Rio Grande Valley
|
+1.5 | 146.7 | 55% | 67–80 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
Nicholls
|
+12.5 | 152.4 | 87% | 72–74 | ✓ |
Stephen F. Austin
@
McNeese
|
+7.5 | 145.9 | 75% | 64–66 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Mississippi Valley State
|
-9.2 | 143.8 | 20% | 71–51 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
Houston Christian
|
-1.5 | 130.1 | 45% | 81–65 | ✓ |
East Texas A&M
@
LSU New Orleans
|
+10.1 | 155.9 | 82% | 73–83 | ✓ |
USC
@
Michigan State
|
+10.2 | 152.8 | 82% | 51–80 | ✓ |
Massachusetts
@
Ohio
|
+2.8 | 157.8 | 60% | 83–86 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.