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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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13–7 on winners spread MAE 7.4 20 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Delaware State @ Howard	+12.5	126.1	87%	58–84	✓
Alcorn State @ Alabama State	+9.7	159.8	81%	66–81	✓
Grambling @ Florida A&M	-3.1	142.7	39%	84–91	✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Prairie View A&M	+4.9	171.7	67%	61–73	✓
Southern @ Bethune-Cookman	+4.6	162.6	66%	77–73	✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Norfolk State	+6.7	126.4	73%	74–70	✗
South Carolina State @ Coppin State	-1.0	150.1	46%	74–72	✓
Houston Christian @ Lamar	+7.6	134.3	76%	56–64	✓
Navy @ American University	-1.1	144.1	46%	51–65	✗
Incarnate Word @ Stephen F. Austin	+11.1	142.2	84%	46–56	✓
LSU New Orleans @ SE Louisiana	+1.6	147.2	56%	79–76	✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Northwestern State	-3.9	148.4	36%	63–64	✗
Nicholls @ McNeese	+13.9	151.5	90%	68–94	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ East Texas A&M	-4.7	138.1	33%	61–50	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Texas Southern	+11.9	151.3	86%	51–84	✓
Jackson State @ Alabama A&M	+10.6	141.4	83%	91–100	✓
Villanova @ Providence	-3.5	167.0	38%	88–82	✓
Marquette @ St. John's	+19.5	157.5	96%	68–92	✓
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan	+11.0	138.3	84%	59–77	✓
Kent State @ Buffalo	+4.5	171.9	66%	87–81	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.