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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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18–6 on winners spread MAE 9.3 24 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Northern Iowa @ Murray State -2.8 134.4 35% 74–67 ✓
Alabama State @ Mississippi Valley State -15.8 132.3 11% 79–56 ✓
Jackson State @ Bethune-Cookman +2.9 145.8 54% 84–71 ✗
Lehigh @ Bucknell +5.0 145.2 72% 50–67 ✓
Alcorn State @ Florida A&M +0.9 138.2 45% 76–85 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -1.8 152.9 32% 75–61 ✓
McNeese @ SE Louisiana -4.9 137.1 32% 88–82 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ East Texas A&M -3.3 132.9 31% 76–74 ✓
Coppin State @ South Carolina State +16.4 140.5 90% 57–87 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Grambling +5.1 139.5 64% 48–70 ✓
Nicholls @ LSU New Orleans -6.9 149.2 29% 78–62 ✓
Lamar @ Northwestern State -0.2 130.8 46% 75–65 ✓
Incarnate Word @ UT Rio Grande Valley +4.5 142.9 69% 66–60 ✗
Duke @ Virginia -12.4 133.6 14% 80–62 ✓
Morgan State @ North Carolina Central +5.6 155.8 75% 92–78 ✗
Delaware State @ Norfolk State +9.0 149.3 81% 84–96 ✓
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +6.8 137.7 78% 62–68 ✓
Kansas State @ Utah +3.1 145.2 66% 69–74 ✓
Texas Southern @ Southern +6.8 141.2 78% 57–66 ✓
Arizona @ Baylor +1.9 152.0 62% 74–67 ✗
Villanova @ UConn +6.7 137.0 77% 59–66 ✓
Jacksonville @ Florida Gulf Coast +1.9 142.1 60% 56–72 ✓
Austin Peay @ Bellarmine -4.8 146.9 34% 68–94 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Eastern Michigan -4.4 148.0 34% 66–76 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.