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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
13–2 on winners
spread MAE 8.3
15 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wofford
@
Charleston
|
+4.1 | 144.2 | 69% | 67–77 | ✓ |
The Citadel
@
Central Arkansas
|
+5.8 | 137.0 | 70% | 71–73 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
Grambling
|
+0.5 | 134.1 | 51% | 75–65 | ✗ |
Grand Canyon
@
Louisiana Tech
|
+5.0 | 146.3 | 71% | 66–74 | ✓ |
California Baptist
@
Middle Tennessee
|
+5.3 | 149.3 | 74% | 64–75 | ✓ |
Alcorn State
@
Rice
|
+16.4 | 137.4 | 90% | 75–77 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
Northern Colorado
|
+9.0 | 141.9 | 82% | 76–81 | ✓ |
Montana
@
Northern Iowa
|
+12.6 | 144.1 | 83% | 76–104 | ✓ |
Oral Roberts
@
Texas Tech
|
+23.6 | 150.1 | 91% | 50–86 | ✓ |
South Alabama
@
TCU
|
+8.8 | 136.0 | 78% | 49–58 | ✓ |
Tarleton State
@
UTEP
|
+17.8 | 133.9 | 91% | 62–67 | ✓ |
Southern Utah
@
New Mexico State
|
+3.4 | 144.3 | 63% | 69–72 | ✓ |
Drexel
@
Howard
|
+0.5 | 143.1 | 52% | 68–65 | ✗ |
DePaul
@
St. John's
|
+8.0 | 149.0 | 78% | 61–89 | ✓ |
North Florida
@
UNC Asheville
|
+2.1 | 159.8 | 55% | 81–95 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.