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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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21–6 on winners spread MAE 7.9 27 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Lafayette @ Lehigh	+4.1	142.7	69%	59–64	✓
Seattle U @ Pacific	+3.3	134.2	65%	54–56	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Long Beach State	-2.6	146.1	42%	74–71	✓
Canisius @ Fairfield	+9.5	135.1	84%	55–61	✓
Manhattan @ Iona	+10.8	151.2	87%	57–66	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal Poly	-1.0	163.3	47%	93–78	✓
Grand Canyon @ Fresno State	-1.7	133.6	44%	68–57	✓
San Francisco @ Gonzaga	+18.5	147.8	91%	66–68	✓
Kansas @ Kansas State	-5.9	150.8	26%	86–62	✓
UIC @ Bradley	+4.1	140.7	69%	85–70	✗
Nevada @ New Mexico	+7.0	144.2	76%	73–80	✓
Saint Mary's @ Portland	-11.4	141.2	15%	75–69	✓
California @ Stanford	+2.9	141.7	66%	78–66	✗
Omaha @ Kansas City	-3.7	142.6	31%	77–60	✓
Northern Colorado @ Northern Arizona	-6.7	144.9	25%	77–81	✗
Weber State @ Montana State	+5.7	144.6	76%	88–91	✓
Utah Valley @ California Baptist	+1.4	140.2	60%	71–78	✓
Tennessee @ Alabama	+6.6	161.7	75%	79–73	✗
Southern Utah @ Utah Tech	+7.7	144.8	80%	91–102	✓
Santa Clara @ San Diego	-12.2	152.5	16%	85–73	✓
Cincinnati @ Arizona State	+0.6	141.0	57%	68–82	✓
UC Irvine @ UC San Diego	+4.9	140.2	70%	61–59	✗
Cal State Northridge @ Hawai'i	+11.0	148.9	86%	68–89	✓
Florida Atlantic @ South Florida	+5.3	156.6	70%	75–89	✓
Oregon @ Washington	+7.5	142.0	78%	57–72	✓
Chicago State @ Mercyhurst	+7.8	128.8	79%	59–61	✓
USC @ Wisconsin	+6.5	155.1	76%	73–71	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.