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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
20–7 on winners
spread MAE 8.7
27 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Purdue
@
Nebraska
|
+4.0 | 141.7 | 67% | 80–77 | ✗ |
North Carolina
@
Miami
|
+1.8 | 149.1 | 55% | 66–75 | ✓ |
Virginia
@
Florida State
|
-6.8 | 149.8 | 25% | 61–58 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
Auburn
|
-0.6 | 161.9 | 51% | 84–76 | ✓ |
BYU
@
Baylor
|
-0.3 | 159.2 | 48% | 99–94 | ✓ |
Rhode Island
@
George Washington
|
+5.1 | 146.7 | 68% | 70–75 | ✓ |
George Mason
@
Richmond
|
-1.4 | 137.2 | 40% | 70–82 | ✗ |
Fordham
@
Saint Joseph's
|
+3.5 | 131.1 | 71% | 68–64 | ✗ |
Notre Dame
@
SMU
|
+11.3 | 151.6 | 86% | 81–89 | ✓ |
Marquette
@
Villanova
|
+12.5 | 143.1 | 88% | 74–77 | ✓ |
Wisconsin
@
Illinois
|
+13.4 | 154.6 | 88% | 92–90 | ✗ |
Eastern Illinois
@
Western Illinois
|
-5.5 | 129.7 | 22% | 70–79 | ✗ |
Houston
@
Utah
|
-13.1 | 141.7 | 15% | 66–52 | ✓ |
Duke
@
Pittsburgh
|
-14.2 | 133.5 | 15% | 70–54 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
TCU
|
-7.2 | 146.2 | 22% | 55–62 | ✗ |
Arkansas
@
LSU
|
-2.9 | 159.6 | 36% | 91–62 | ✓ |
Fresno State
@
Utah State
|
+16.1 | 144.5 | 89% | 78–91 | ✓ |
Oklahoma State
@
Arizona State
|
+1.6 | 156.9 | 59% | 76–85 | ✓ |
Colorado State
@
Air Force
|
-15.1 | 131.1 | 13% | 91–74 | ✓ |
Washington State
@
Gonzaga
|
+18.3 | 153.1 | 91% | 53–83 | ✓ |
San José State
@
UNLV
|
+8.1 | 146.9 | 80% | 75–82 | ✓ |
Iowa
@
Maryland
|
-11.6 | 140.8 | 15% | 70–77 | ✗ |
Colgate
@
Holy Cross
|
-5.3 | 140.4 | 29% | 74–70 | ✓ |
Boston University
@
Army
|
-1.4 | 143.8 | 39% | 85–68 | ✓ |
The Citadel
@
Western Carolina
|
+5.7 | 145.5 | 76% | 49–87 | ✓ |
VCU
@
La Salle
|
-12.0 | 139.6 | 15% | 77–68 | ✓ |
USC
@
Ohio State
|
+5.4 | 150.7 | 69% | 82–89 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.