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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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18–7 on winners spread MAE 10.1 25 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
South Carolina State @ Delaware State	+0.5	132.1	52%	61–59	✗
Duke @ NC State	-8.4	148.1	20%	93–64	✓
North Carolina Central @ Maryland Eastern Shore	+2.6	132.6	62%	77–73	✗
Coppin State @ Howard	+16.8	140.8	90%	70–90	✓
IU Indianapolis @ Cleveland State	+2.3	164.8	59%	93–101	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Incarnate Word	-7.8	139.9	22%	76–68	✓
Northwestern State @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+10.2	135.4	86%	62–74	✓
McNeese @ Nicholls	-8.7	140.6	18%	75–65	✓
SE Louisiana @ LSU New Orleans	+8.5	138.5	80%	82–78	✗
East Texas A&M @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+8.5	132.0	80%	71–84	✓
Montana State @ Northern Arizona	-6.9	140.9	25%	76–65	✓
Montana @ Northern Colorado	+5.8	150.5	74%	57–85	✓
Lamar @ Houston Christian	-1.4	130.8	42%	53–75	✗
Iowa State @ Arizona	+7.9	146.9	79%	57–73	✓
Idaho @ Eastern Washington	+3.5	150.1	69%	85–81	✗
Weber State @ Portland State	+4.5	146.1	69%	60–84	✓
Idaho State @ Sacramento State	+0.6	154.0	52%	65–83	✓
UMass Lowell @ Maine	-0.6	132.1	46%	67–56	✓
UMBC @ NJIT	-4.0	135.4	31%	91–52	✓
Bryant @ New Hampshire	+2.0	132.6	57%	83–88	✓
Tennessee @ South Carolina	-8.1	140.6	19%	78–59	✓
Georgia State @ Louisiana	-1.0	129.9	47%	75–84	✗
Alabama @ Georgia	+1.7	180.1	53%	88–98	✓
Eastern Michigan @ Buffalo	+5.3	144.7	71%	67–72	✓
Towson @ Stony Brook	+1.0	130.3	50%	69–57	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.