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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
15–1 on winners
spread MAE 12.0
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pennsylvania
@
Illinois
|
+15.6 | 148.3 | 87% | 70–105 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
Georgia
|
+0.6 | 166.5 | 53% | 102–77 | ✗ |
Idaho
@
Houston
|
+15.9 | 133.5 | 87% | 47–78 | ✓ |
Kennesaw State
@
Gonzaga
|
+17.6 | 149.4 | 88% | 64–73 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Kentucky
|
+2.0 | 151.9 | 58% | 84–89 | ✓ |
Akron
@
Texas Tech
|
+6.5 | 151.8 | 76% | 71–91 | ✓ |
Long Island University
@
Arizona
|
+17.7 | 142.9 | 87% | 58–92 | ✓ |
Wright State
@
Virginia
|
+14.9 | 145.9 | 87% | 73–82 | ✓ |
Tennessee State
@
Iowa State
|
+18.0 | 144.6 | 88% | 74–108 | ✓ |
Hofstra
@
Alabama
|
+9.0 | 157.4 | 82% | 70–90 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Villanova
|
-1.4 | 144.0 | 43% | 86–76 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Tennessee
|
+8.0 | 148.8 | 76% | 56–78 | ✓ |
Iowa
@
Clemson
|
-1.4 | 131.6 | 44% | 67–61 | ✓ |
Northern Iowa
@
St. John's
|
+9.8 | 131.8 | 80% | 53–79 | ✓ |
UCF
@
UCLA
|
+4.4 | 147.7 | 67% | 71–75 | ✓ |
Queens University
@
Purdue
|
+19.2 | 158.7 | 88% | 71–104 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.