Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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100–32 on winners spread MAE 8.0 132 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
USC @ Michigan +18.7 169.8 90% 66–96 ✓
Robert Morris @ Detroit Mercy -1.3 145.4 47% 85–77 ✓
Siena @ Iona +1.8 141.7 62% 72–75 ✓
Marist @ Saint Peter's -3.1 130.6 41% 59–69 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Manhattan -7.4 152.3 27% 79–80 ✗
Wagner @ Chicago State -0.7 146.6 57% 79–72 ✓
New Haven @ Stonehill +1.1 124.0 48% 70–55 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Long Island University +4.4 146.9 69% 78–84 ✓
Le Moyne @ Saint Francis -6.0 144.1 25% 84–58 ✓
Lamar @ McNeese +15.7 139.7 87% 70–82 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Liberty +8.0 151.1 80% 73–81 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Delaware -0.6 129.3 37% 67–64 ✓
Oregon @ Maryland -1.5 149.1 36% 64–54 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Mercyhurst +7.8 127.5 74% 74–67 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Middle Tennessee +7.5 131.3 72% 51–88 ✓
Louisville @ Stanford -8.3 155.2 22% 76–80 ✗
Ohio State @ Rutgers -8.5 147.1 21% 80–73 ✓
UTEP @ Missouri State +2.0 132.8 57% 55–79 ✓
West Virginia @ Iowa State +14.4 138.1 88% 59–80 ✓
Seattle U @ Gonzaga +21.9 145.6 90% 72–80 ✓
Michigan State @ Nebraska +2.8 143.4 63% 56–58 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Washington State +0.9 137.7 56% 76–78 ✓
San Diego @ San Francisco +12.0 145.6 86% 64–74 ✓
Portland @ Saint Mary's +21.1 140.0 91% 57–78 ✓
Pepperdine @ Santa Clara +19.2 141.6 89% 63–82 ✓
Oregon State @ Pacific +4.3 136.9 70% 53–84 ✓
Notre Dame @ California +2.8 136.3 68% 71–72 ✓
Virginia @ NC State +3.1 153.5 67% 76–61 ✗
Kentucky @ Alabama +5.4 165.9 60% 74–89 ✓
VCU @ Duquesne -5.0 160.0 27% 93–80 ✓
UTSA @ Temple +10.5 147.6 86% 57–76 ✓
Villanova @ Butler +2.7 146.1 62% 85–67 ✗
Providence @ St. John's +15.4 167.5 88% 77–71 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest +5.2 153.0 72% 78–81 ✓
Clemson @ Pittsburgh -1.4 131.4 41% 73–68 ✓
Northeastern @ Campbell +1.6 148.8 69% 82–97 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech +11.0 163.1 82% 80–102 ✓
Auburn @ Georgia +7.9 168.5 78% 100–104 ✓
Colgate @ Army -5.1 149.9 35% 76–69 ✓
American University @ Boston University +0.7 145.1 53% 64–62 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Kent State +12.5 152.6 89% 73–77 ✓
Vermont @ New Hampshire -6.6 142.4 27% 80–61 ✓
Chattanooga @ VMI -3.9 146.8 42% 71–79 ✗
Wofford @ The Citadel -9.6 135.8 19% 95–86 ✓
Southern Miss @ Louisiana -7.2 128.2 20% 74–67 ✓
Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina +6.4 145.9 77% 89–71 ✗
BYU @ Kansas State -2.1 159.4 32% 83–73 ✓
Houston @ Cincinnati -2.9 135.8 28% 67–60 ✓
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina -7.5 154.8 23% 83–71 ✓
Kansas @ UCF +0.2 144.4 54% 75–81 ✓
La Salle @ George Washington +14.4 146.7 89% 55–77 ✓
Dayton @ Loyola Chicago -10.1 142.0 17% 70–68 ✓
Baylor @ TCU +2.4 153.8 55% 63–69 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Presbyterian +1.9 134.1 53% 77–86 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Charleston Southern +5.2 144.1 74% 83–86 ✓
Longwood @ High Point +17.1 154.7 89% 67–80 ✓
Xavier @ DePaul +2.0 140.3 59% 77–86 ✓
Navy @ Holy Cross -3.0 133.7 37% 65–58 ✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota -6.9 145.0 25% 87–90 ✗
Ohio @ Eastern Michigan +1.4 146.8 55% 68–67 ✗
Bowling Green @ Massachusetts -1.2 142.6 55% 101–100 ✓
Ball State @ Buffalo +10.6 138.7 85% 72–85 ✓
NJIT @ Binghamton -0.8 138.5 66% 73–65 ✓
Bryant @ Maine -0.5 129.9 41% 56–51 ✓
UAlbany @ UMass Lowell +1.8 147.4 62% 71–83 ✓
Hofstra @ Drexel -7.0 135.3 22% 70–67 ✓
Stetson @ Central Arkansas +9.9 143.8 86% 73–93 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ West Georgia +0.2 153.0 55% 76–88 ✓
Boston College @ Georgia Tech +5.6 140.4 72% 53–65 ✓
North Carolina @ SMU +3.0 147.0 59% 83–97 ✓
Memphis @ Rice -10.3 139.7 18% 76–70 ✓
Toledo @ Central Michigan -7.3 147.2 26% 78–75 ✓
James Madison @ Arkansas State +9.8 155.2 85% 78–74 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Alabama -2.1 147.9 49% 72–55 ✓
Bellarmine @ Queens University +3.9 155.5 77% 76–98 ✓
Tennessee @ Arkansas +2.0 153.2 58% 75–86 ✓
Florida A&M @ Bethune-Cookman +5.0 143.9 78% 83–87 ✓
Akron @ Miami (OH) +1.3 163.6 51% 73–76 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Old Dominion +0.6 157.5 53% 93–86 ✗
Ole Miss @ Oklahoma +7.4 140.7 77% 70–86 ✓
Duke @ Florida State -10.2 155.7 18% 91–87 ✓
Texas State @ UL Monroe -2.3 146.8 38% 84–79 ✓
Arizona @ Utah -12.2 155.7 15% 97–78 ✓
Rhode Island @ George Mason +6.8 133.8 78% 50–61 ✓
San José State @ Utah State +19.7 143.6 90% 78–96 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Winthrop +17.9 156.1 91% 77–88 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Northridge +0.5 151.4 59% 65–74 ✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota State +13.4 142.6 88% 77–79 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Stony Brook +4.7 137.4 72% 80–81 ✓
Samford @ UNC Greensboro +0.2 147.1 55% 82–89 ✓
Western Carolina @ Furman +12.9 147.3 88% 80–77 ✗
Mercer @ East Tennessee State +5.9 145.5 75% 71–77 ✓
App State @ Marshall +6.7 140.9 75% 81–88 ✓
LSU @ Texas A&M +3.5 161.0 66% 72–75 ✓
Utah Valley @ Abilene Christian -9.1 134.5 19% 68–85 ✗
Howard @ South Carolina State -7.8 135.7 22% 57–58 ✗
Norfolk State @ North Carolina Central -5.2 135.2 25% 67–69 ✗
Alcorn State @ Jackson State +1.9 144.8 68% 86–89 ✓
Morgan State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +7.6 133.8 76% 49–66 ✓
Coppin State @ Delaware State +10.3 132.6 85% 53–51 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ SE Louisiana -6.8 134.3 26% 73–63 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Northwestern State -1.6 144.3 60% 68–74 ✗
East Texas A&M @ Nicholls +9.3 145.1 85% 58–80 ✓
South Alabama @ Troy +7.0 151.9 79% 49–59 ✓
Morehead State @ SIU Edwardsville +4.5 133.7 68% 73–72 ✗
Tennessee State @ Little Rock -3.7 141.5 34% 84–79 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Lindenwood +10.5 145.0 84% 80–83 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ UT Martin +10.6 132.5 85% 61–65 ✓
Western Illinois @ Southeast Missouri State +11.5 145.1 86% 50–73 ✓
Lehigh @ Bucknell +3.1 137.9 60% 65–72 ✓
Minnesota @ Northwestern +7.1 133.3 76% 84–78 ✗
Air Force @ UNLV +12.6 140.3 88% 39–67 ✓
Houston Christian @ Incarnate Word +7.8 137.6 76% 56–73 ✓
Lafayette @ Loyola Maryland +0.8 147.9 48% 79–64 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Davis +9.9 149.4 84% 81–79 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Idaho +8.4 151.0 83% 81–84 ✓
North Florida @ Lipscomb +16.0 160.9 89% 74–82 ✓
Jacksonville @ Austin Peay +10.6 140.0 86% 68–71 ✓
California Baptist @ Tarleton State +0.9 140.6 58% 76–81 ✓
Colorado @ Arizona State +4.0 153.2 70% 95–89 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ Grambling +6.1 150.8 85% 72–76 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ UT Rio Grande Valley +1.9 133.3 56% 63–59 ✗
UCLA @ Iowa +8.0 135.7 79% 61–74 ✓
Davidson @ Saint Joseph's -1.5 139.6 47% 62–56 ✓
Texas Southern @ Southern +9.2 153.3 83% 73–84 ✓
Monmouth @ Towson +7.5 134.0 75% 62–48 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Montana -1.4 155.9 47% 79–88 ✗
Portland State @ Idaho State +4.8 141.4 71% 93–87 ✗
Mississippi State @ Texas +8.8 152.6 77% 101–98 ✗
Wichita State @ Charlotte -5.8 135.1 23% 100–104 ✗
Alabama State @ Mississippi Valley State -9.9 143.4 16% 89–69 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +1.4 142.4 52% 83–95 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.