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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
18–9 on winners
spread MAE 8.9
27 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Purdue
@
Nebraska
|
+2.8 | 142.8 | 63% | 80–77 | ✗ |
North Carolina
@
Miami
|
-0.5 | 149.1 | 55% | 66–75 | ✗ |
Virginia
@
Florida State
|
-6.9 | 151.7 | 28% | 61–58 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
Auburn
|
+1.1 | 159.3 | 56% | 84–76 | ✗ |
BYU
@
Baylor
|
-1.6 | 158.7 | 44% | 99–94 | ✓ |
Rhode Island
@
George Washington
|
+5.7 | 145.6 | 71% | 70–75 | ✓ |
George Mason
@
Richmond
|
-1.6 | 135.8 | 41% | 70–82 | ✗ |
Fordham
@
Saint Joseph's
|
+4.5 | 134.3 | 74% | 68–64 | ✗ |
Notre Dame
@
SMU
|
+10.9 | 151.1 | 85% | 81–89 | ✓ |
Marquette
@
Villanova
|
+12.2 | 145.6 | 85% | 74–77 | ✓ |
Wisconsin
@
Illinois
|
+12.6 | 160.5 | 85% | 92–90 | ✗ |
Eastern Illinois
@
Western Illinois
|
-6.0 | 131.0 | 27% | 70–79 | ✗ |
Houston
@
Utah
|
-14.0 | 141.4 | 12% | 66–52 | ✓ |
Duke
@
Pittsburgh
|
-12.5 | 133.3 | 17% | 70–54 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
TCU
|
-7.7 | 145.2 | 22% | 55–62 | ✗ |
Arkansas
@
LSU
|
-2.6 | 160.9 | 38% | 91–62 | ✓ |
Fresno State
@
Utah State
|
+19.7 | 144.6 | 89% | 78–91 | ✓ |
Oklahoma State
@
Arizona State
|
+2.4 | 159.8 | 58% | 76–85 | ✓ |
Colorado State
@
Air Force
|
-15.3 | 135.0 | 12% | 91–74 | ✓ |
Washington State
@
Gonzaga
|
+17.1 | 151.0 | 90% | 53–83 | ✓ |
San José State
@
UNLV
|
+9.1 | 145.6 | 82% | 75–82 | ✓ |
Iowa
@
Maryland
|
-11.6 | 138.3 | 18% | 70–77 | ✗ |
Colgate
@
Holy Cross
|
-5.3 | 140.1 | 30% | 74–70 | ✓ |
Boston University
@
Army
|
-1.4 | 145.2 | 45% | 85–68 | ✓ |
The Citadel
@
Western Carolina
|
+6.7 | 148.0 | 78% | 49–87 | ✓ |
VCU
@
La Salle
|
-11.8 | 143.1 | 15% | 77–68 | ✓ |
USC
@
Ohio State
|
+6.2 | 152.9 | 76% | 82–89 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.