Does Free Throw Rate predict winners?
Free throws made per field-goal attempt; how often a team gets to the line.
Game Outcomes
Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss
Based on 3702 of 3953 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.
How useful is it?
- AUC
- 0.547
- Better team wins
- 53.1%
- Games
- 3,702
On its own, no better than a coin flip at picking winners.
Reading the chart: points below the dashed diagonal are games where the home team entered with the better value; a predictive stat shows more green there and more red above the diagonal. AUC summarizes exactly that separation — 0.50 is a coin flip, 1.00 is perfect.