I've never done bad things. "Ashes to Ashes" - David Bowie

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 25.3% max 43.7% mean 33.5% std 2.5% (n=359)

By Conference

A dot per team, best conference average at the top. The tick marks each conference's mean.

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.59 (team entering with the better value wins 57% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Rankings

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# Team Three-Point Percentage z Pctl GP
1 South Dakota State 43.7% +4.12 100 33
2 Colgate 40.2% +2.72 100 34
3 Virginia Tech 39.2% +2.31 99 36
4 Davidson 38.5% +2.04 99 33
5 Purdue 38.4% +2.00 99 37
6 Princeton 38.4% +1.98 99 28
7 UMBC 38.3% +1.96 98 31
8 Longwood 38.3% +1.95 98 29
9 Lehigh 38.2% +1.90 98 31
10 Liberty 38.1% +1.85 97 30
11 UAB 38.1% +1.85 97 33
12 Jacksonville State 38.0% +1.83 97 30
13 Northern Colorado 37.9% +1.79 97 35
14 Notre Dame 37.9% +1.78 96 34
15 Santa Clara 37.8% +1.76 96 33
16 Michigan State 37.8% +1.73 96 36
17 Syracuse 37.7% +1.72 96 33
18 Loyola Chicago 37.6% +1.68 95 32
19 Bucknell 37.6% +1.66 95 32
20 Furman 37.5% +1.64 95 33
21 VMI 37.4% +1.58 94 29
22 South Dakota 37.3% +1.56 94 29
23 Oral Roberts 37.2% +1.50 94 28
24 Texas State 37.1% +1.49 94 26
25 Massachusetts 37.1% +1.47 93 32
26 Denver 37.1% +1.47 93 30
27 Winthrop 37.0% +1.44 93 29
28 Gonzaga 37.0% +1.43 92 32
29 Hartford 36.9% +1.40 92 32
30 Detroit Mercy 36.9% +1.38 92 29
31 Utah Valley 36.9% +1.38 92 30
32 Illinois State 36.9% +1.38 91 31
33 Minnesota 36.8% +1.34 91 30
34 Vermont 36.8% +1.34 91 33
35 Idaho 36.7% +1.31 91 29
36 Montana State 36.6% +1.28 90 33
37 Duke 36.6% +1.27 90 39
38 Colorado 36.6% +1.27 90 33
39 New Hampshire 36.6% +1.27 89 26
40 Tulane 36.5% +1.23 89 29
41 Ohio State 36.5% +1.22 89 32
42 Missouri State 36.4% +1.20 89 33
43 Purdue Fort Wayne 36.4% +1.19 88 31
44 South Carolina Upstate 36.4% +1.18 88 30
45 Iowa 36.3% +1.14 88 36
46 Clemson 36.3% +1.13 87 33
47 Kennesaw State 36.2% +1.12 87 27
48 Howard 36.2% +1.11 87 26
49 Rice 36.2% +1.11 87 31
50 Eastern Washington 36.1% +1.07 86 32
51 Kansas 36.1% +1.07 86 40
52 Saint Louis 36.1% +1.06 86 34
53 Dayton 36.1% +1.05 85 35
54 Tennessee 36.0% +1.01 85 35
55 UC San Diego 36.0% +1.01 85 27
56 Illinois 35.9% +1.00 85 33
57 Villanova 35.9% +1.00 84 38
58 Western Kentucky 35.9% +0.99 84 30
59 North Texas 35.8% +0.96 84 30
60 Morehead State 35.8% +0.95 84 31
61 North Carolina 35.8% +0.95 83 39
62 Omaha 35.8% +0.94 83 29
63 George Mason 35.8% +0.93 83 30
64 Ball State 35.7% +0.92 82 30
65 USC 35.7% +0.91 82 34
66 Colorado State 35.6% +0.87 82 30
67 Towson 35.6% +0.86 82 35
68 Kansas City 35.6% +0.86 81 27
69 Siena 35.6% +0.85 81 29
70 Memphis 35.5% +0.83 81 33
71 Saint Mary's 35.5% +0.81 80 33
72 San Diego State 35.4% +0.79 80 32
73 SMU 35.4% +0.76 80 33
74 North Dakota State 35.3% +0.76 80 31
75 UCLA 35.3% +0.75 79 35
76 Akron 35.3% +0.73 79 32
77 Mercer 35.3% +0.72 79 31
78 Arizona 35.2% +0.71 78 37
79 Toledo 35.2% +0.70 78 33
80 Southeast Missouri State 35.2% +0.69 78 30
81 UConn 35.2% +0.68 78 33
82 Florida Atlantic 35.1% +0.68 77 31
83 Southern Illinois 35.1% +0.67 77 30
84 Florida Gulf Coast 35.1% +0.67 77 32
85 Coastal Carolina 35.1% +0.67 77 29
86 East Tennessee State 35.1% +0.66 76 30
87 Sacramento State 35.1% +0.65 76 27
88 Northern Iowa 35.1% +0.64 76 31
89 Portland 35.0% +0.63 75 32
90 Southern 35.0% +0.63 75 29
91 UCF 35.0% +0.63 75 30
92 Columbia 34.9% +0.58 75 25
93 Long Beach State 34.9% +0.56 74 31
94 Boston University 34.9% +0.56 74 34
95 Wofford 34.8% +0.55 74 30
96 Stetson 34.8% +0.55 73 26
97 The Citadel 34.8% +0.54 73 28
98 VCU 34.7% +0.52 73 32
99 UTEP 34.7% +0.52 73 32
100 Kentucky 34.7% +0.51 72 34
101 Drexel 34.7% +0.51 72 28
102 Binghamton 34.7% +0.50 72 27
103 Oklahoma 34.7% +0.49 72 35
104 Tennessee State 34.6% +0.48 71 30
105 Delaware 34.6% +0.47 71 35
106 Kansas State 34.6% +0.47 71 31
107 Weber State 34.6% +0.46 70 31
108 Northwestern 34.6% +0.45 70 30
109 Grand Canyon 34.6% +0.45 70 29
110 Hawai'i 34.6% +0.44 70 26
111 BYU 34.6% +0.44 69 33
112 Saint Peter's 34.6% +0.44 69 33
113 Prairie View A&M 34.5% +0.44 69 27
114 Charlotte 34.5% +0.43 68 31
115 Jacksonville 34.5% +0.42 68 27
116 Murray State 34.5% +0.41 68 31
117 San José State 34.5% +0.41 68 30
118 Providence 34.4% +0.39 67 33
119 Wake Forest 34.4% +0.39 67 35
120 SE Louisiana 34.4% +0.39 67 30
121 Marist 34.4% +0.38 66 30
122 UNC Greensboro 34.4% +0.37 66 31
123 Marquette 34.4% +0.37 66 32
124 Buffalo 34.4% +0.37 66 28
125 Northwestern State 34.4% +0.37 65 29
126 San Francisco 34.3% +0.35 65 33
127 St. Thomas 34.3% +0.35 65 27
128 New Mexico 34.3% +0.34 65 30
129 Baylor 34.3% +0.34 64 34
130 Northern Arizona 34.3% +0.32 64 30
131 Louisiana 34.3% +0.32 64 29
132 Miami (OH) 34.3% +0.32 63 29
133 Tulsa 34.2% +0.32 63 31
134 Georgia Tech 34.2% +0.32 63 31
135 James Madison 34.2% +0.31 63 27
136 Sacred Heart 34.2% +0.31 62 29
137 Georgetown 34.2% +0.30 62 31
138 Loyola Marymount 34.2% +0.29 62 28
139 Bellarmine 34.2% +0.29 61 29
140 Central Connecticut 34.2% +0.28 61 32
141 Penn State 34.2% +0.28 61 31
142 Youngstown State 34.1% +0.27 61 32
143 Central Michigan 34.1% +0.27 60 30
144 Northern Kentucky 34.1% +0.26 60 30
145 NC State 34.1% +0.26 60 32
146 Utah State 34.1% +0.25 59 33
147 UNC Asheville 34.1% +0.25 59 29
148 Bradley 34.1% +0.24 59 30
149 Southern Utah 34.1% +0.24 59 33
150 Pepperdine 34.1% +0.24 58 31
151 Cornell 34.0% +0.24 58 24
152 Norfolk State 34.0% +0.24 58 28
153 Florida International 34.0% +0.23 58 30
154 Stony Brook 34.0% +0.23 57 30
155 Niagara 34.0% +0.23 57 29
156 Mount St. Mary's 34.0% +0.22 57 29
157 Lipscomb 34.0% +0.22 56 30
158 Quinnipiac 34.0% +0.21 56 30
159 Boise State 34.0% +0.21 56 34
160 Louisiana Tech 34.0% +0.20 56 31
161 Vanderbilt 34.0% +0.20 55 36
162 Charleston 33.9% +0.19 55 32
163 Michigan 33.9% +0.18 55 34
164 Chattanooga 33.9% +0.18 54 33
165 Rutgers 33.9% +0.18 54 32
166 South Alabama 33.9% +0.18 54 30
167 Montana 33.9% +0.17 54 29
168 Stanford 33.9% +0.16 53 32
169 Eastern Kentucky 33.9% +0.16 53 27
170 Miami 33.9% +0.16 53 37
171 Houston 33.8% +0.15 53 38
172 Hofstra 33.8% +0.13 52 30
173 Rhode Island 33.8% +0.12 52 30
174 George Washington 33.8% +0.12 52 30
175 Fresno State 33.7% +0.12 51 35
176 Bethune-Cookman 33.7% +0.08 51 29
177 Saint Joseph's 33.6% +0.07 51 30
178 Ohio 33.6% +0.07 51 34
179 Sam Houston 33.6% +0.06 50 30
180 St. John's 33.5% +0.03 50 32
181 Incarnate Word 33.5% +0.02 50 29
182 App State 33.5% +0.02 49 31
183 Pennsylvania 33.5% +0.01 49 28
184 Fairfield 33.5% +0.01 49 32
185 Utah 33.5% +0.01 49 31
186 Oregon 33.5% +0.01 48 34
187 Washington State 33.5% +0.00 48 37
188 Wright State 33.4% -0.01 48 35
189 North Dakota 33.4% -0.01 47 29
190 UC Santa Barbara 33.4% -0.02 47 26
191 Cal State Fullerton 33.4% -0.02 47 30
192 Dartmouth 33.4% -0.03 47 24
193 Little Rock 33.3% -0.05 46 25
194 New Mexico State 33.3% -0.05 46 31
195 East Carolina 33.3% -0.07 46 30
196 Air Force 33.3% -0.07 46 29
197 Merrimack 33.3% -0.07 45 29
198 Indiana 33.3% -0.07 45 35
199 UNLV 33.2% -0.09 45 31
200 Iona 33.2% -0.09 44 33
201 Western Michigan 33.2% -0.11 44 28
202 Seton Hall 33.2% -0.11 44 31
203 UL Monroe 33.2% -0.12 44 28
204 Middle Tennessee 33.1% -0.13 43 35
205 Seattle U 33.1% -0.13 43 30
206 Monmouth 33.1% -0.13 43 34
207 Holy Cross 33.1% -0.13 42 29
208 Florida State 33.1% -0.14 42 31
209 St. Bonaventure 33.1% -0.14 42 33
210 Bowling Green 33.1% -0.15 42 29
211 Drake 33.1% -0.15 41 34
212 American University 33.1% -0.16 41 32
213 Texas 33.0% -0.17 41 34
214 Samford 33.0% -0.18 41 29
215 Elon 33.0% -0.18 40 30
216 Nevada 33.0% -0.18 40 30
217 Alabama State 33.0% -0.19 40 30
218 California Baptist 33.0% -0.20 39 31
219 Gardner-Webb 33.0% -0.20 39 28
220 Campbell 33.0% -0.20 39 26
221 Western Illinois 33.0% -0.20 39 30
222 Wyoming 32.9% -0.21 38 33
223 Richmond 32.9% -0.22 38 37
224 Robert Morris 32.9% -0.22 38 31
225 Tennessee Tech 32.9% -0.23 37 30
226 UNC Wilmington 32.9% -0.24 37 34
227 Valparaiso 32.9% -0.24 37 30
228 Belmont 32.8% -0.26 37 32
229 Lafayette 32.8% -0.28 36 29
230 Harvard 32.8% -0.28 36 23
231 West Virginia 32.8% -0.28 36 33
232 Ole Miss 32.6% -0.33 35 32
233 Yale 32.6% -0.33 35 30
234 Evansville 32.6% -0.33 35 29
235 NJIT 32.6% -0.34 35 28
236 Maryland 32.6% -0.35 34 32
237 Cleveland State 32.6% -0.36 34 29
238 Kent State 32.5% -0.39 34 32
239 UIC 32.4% -0.42 34 29
240 Georgia State 32.4% -0.42 33 26
241 North Florida 32.4% -0.44 33 28
242 Fairleigh Dickinson 32.4% -0.44 33 26
243 Navy 32.3% -0.45 32 31
244 Texas A&M 32.3% -0.45 32 39
245 UAlbany 32.3% -0.46 32 31
246 UC Davis 32.3% -0.46 32 22
247 Virginia 32.3% -0.47 31 35
248 UC Riverside 32.3% -0.48 31 26
249 Troy 32.3% -0.49 31 29
250 Xavier 32.2% -0.50 30 36
251 Delaware State 32.2% -0.50 30 25
252 Abilene Christian 32.2% -0.50 30 32
253 Loyola Maryland 32.1% -0.53 30 29
254 Texas Tech 32.1% -0.53 29 37
255 Georgia 32.1% -0.53 29 32
256 UC Irvine 32.1% -0.54 29 23
257 San Diego 32.1% -0.55 28 29
258 Nicholls 32.1% -0.56 28 29
259 High Point 32.0% -0.58 28 29
260 Indiana State 32.0% -0.59 28 28
261 Northeastern 32.0% -0.60 27 31
262 Nebraska 32.0% -0.61 27 32
263 Milwaukee 31.9% -0.61 27 31
264 La Salle 31.9% -0.61 27 30
265 Stephen F. Austin 31.9% -0.62 26 28
266 Oregon State 31.9% -0.63 26 31
267 Arkansas State 31.9% -0.64 26 26
268 Northern Illinois 31.8% -0.66 25 30
269 Eastern Illinois 31.8% -0.66 25 29
270 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 31.8% -0.67 25 31
271 Auburn 31.8% -0.67 25 34
272 Army 31.7% -0.71 24 29
273 DePaul 31.7% -0.72 24 31
274 Brown 31.7% -0.72 24 27
275 Rider 31.6% -0.74 23 32
276 Alcorn State 31.6% -0.75 23 34
277 LSU 31.6% -0.76 23 34
278 Iowa State 31.5% -0.77 23 35
279 Saint Francis 31.5% -0.79 22 29
280 North Carolina A&T 31.5% -0.79 22 29
281 Cincinnati 31.4% -0.82 22 32
282 Pittsburgh 31.4% -0.83 22 32
283 Pacific 31.4% -0.84 21 28
284 Texas Southern 31.4% -0.85 21 32
285 South Carolina 31.3% -0.85 21 30
286 Western Carolina 31.3% -0.86 20 31
287 Washington 31.2% -0.90 20 32
288 Maryland Eastern Shore 31.2% -0.90 20 24
289 St. Francis Brooklyn 31.2% -0.90 20 29
290 Wichita State 31.2% -0.92 19 28
291 Grambling 31.1% -0.94 19 30
292 William & Mary 31.1% -0.96 19 31
293 Temple 31.1% -0.97 18 29
294 Long Island University 31.0% -0.97 18 29
295 North Carolina Central 31.0% -0.97 18 27
296 Maine 31.0% -0.98 18 26
297 Southern Miss 31.0% -0.98 17 31
298 UT Arlington 31.0% -1.00 17 27
299 Boston College 30.9% -1.01 17 33
300 Louisville 30.9% -1.01 16 32
301 Tarleton State 30.9% -1.02 16 28
302 Chicago State 30.9% -1.02 16 32
303 Alabama 30.9% -1.03 16 33
304 Austin Peay 30.8% -1.06 15 27
305 Creighton 30.8% -1.07 15 35
306 LSU New Orleans 30.8% -1.08 15 29
307 California 30.8% -1.09 15 32
308 Arizona State 30.7% -1.11 14 31
309 Eastern Michigan 30.7% -1.13 14 30
310 Wisconsin 30.6% -1.15 14 33
311 McNeese 30.6% -1.15 13 29
312 South Carolina State 30.6% -1.16 13 28
313 Houston Christian 30.5% -1.20 13 25
314 Duquesne 30.5% -1.21 13 30
315 Mississippi Valley State 30.4% -1.22 12 28
316 Arkansas 30.4% -1.24 12 37
317 Florida 30.3% -1.26 12 34
318 UT Rio Grande Valley 30.3% -1.27 11 29
319 Bryant 30.3% -1.29 11 31
320 UMass Lowell 30.2% -1.29 11 28
321 TCU 30.2% -1.30 11 34
322 Canisius 30.2% -1.30 10 31
323 Lamar 30.2% -1.31 10 27
324 East Texas A&M 30.2% -1.32 10 2
325 Cal State Northridge 30.2% -1.33 9 28
326 Marshall 30.1% -1.33 9 31
327 Morgan State 30.0% -1.38 9 24
328 Charleston Southern 30.0% -1.39 9 28
329 Jackson State 30.0% -1.40 8 30
330 Manhattan 29.9% -1.43 8 29
331 Radford 29.8% -1.47 8 27
332 Oakland 29.8% -1.49 8 30
333 Florida A&M 29.7% -1.50 7 28
334 Butler 29.7% -1.51 7 31
335 Portland State 29.7% -1.51 7 29
336 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 29.7% -1.51 6 29
337 UT Martin 29.7% -1.51 6 28
338 Fordham 29.7% -1.53 6 32
339 Coppin State 29.7% -1.53 6 32
340 Idaho State 29.6% -1.55 5 28
341 Utah Tech 29.5% -1.58 5 27
342 Central Arkansas 29.5% -1.59 5 29
343 Mississippi State 29.5% -1.59 4 34
344 Cal Poly 29.5% -1.59 4 27
345 Oklahoma State 29.5% -1.60 4 30
346 SIU Edwardsville 29.2% -1.70 4 30
347 Georgia Southern 29.2% -1.70 3 26
348 IU Indianapolis 29.2% -1.70 3 27
349 North Alabama 29.2% -1.71 3 26
350 Hampton 29.1% -1.74 3 26
351 Old Dominion 29.0% -1.78 2 31
352 Wagner 28.5% -1.98 2 26
353 UTSA 28.4% -2.04 2 29
354 Cal State Bakersfield 28.3% -2.09 1 25
355 Missouri 28.1% -2.16 1 32
356 Green Bay 28.0% -2.19 1 29
357 Alabama A&M 27.1% -2.54 1 30
358 Presbyterian 26.1% -2.97 0 29
359 South Florida 25.3% -3.29 0 31