Now she's with one of my good-time buddies, they're drinking in some crosstown bar. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 37.3% max 52.1% mean 43.6% std 2.4% (n=359)

By Conference

A dot per team, best conference average at the top. The tick marks each conference's mean.

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.67 (team entering with the better value wins 62% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Rankings

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# Team Field Goal Percentage z Pctl GP
1 Gonzaga 52.1% +3.53 100 32
2 South Dakota State 51.7% +3.35 100 33
3 Arizona 49.2% +2.33 99 37
4 Vermont 49.2% +2.33 99 33
5 Duke 49.1% +2.29 99 39
6 Purdue 49.0% +2.24 99 37
7 Belmont 48.6% +2.06 98 32
8 UC Santa Barbara 48.5% +2.05 98 26
9 Winthrop 48.5% +2.02 98 29
10 Santa Clara 48.4% +2.01 97 33
11 Wake Forest 48.3% +1.94 97 35
12 Kentucky 48.3% +1.94 97 34
13 Princeton 48.0% +1.84 97 28
14 Dayton 47.8% +1.77 96 35
15 Missouri State 47.8% +1.75 96 33
16 Kansas 47.8% +1.75 96 40
17 Davidson 47.7% +1.72 96 33
18 Colorado State 47.7% +1.72 95 30
19 Cleveland State 47.7% +1.70 95 29
20 Oklahoma 47.6% +1.67 95 35
21 Northern Colorado 47.5% +1.64 94 35
22 Toledo 47.4% +1.60 94 33
23 Loyola Chicago 47.4% +1.58 94 32
24 Miami 47.3% +1.55 94 37
25 Utah State 47.3% +1.54 93 33
26 Texas Tech 47.2% +1.48 93 37
27 Colgate 47.1% +1.47 93 34
28 Virginia Tech 47.1% +1.46 92 36
29 Ohio State 47.1% +1.45 92 32
30 Memphis 46.9% +1.38 92 33
31 Montana State 46.9% +1.37 92 33
32 Delaware 46.9% +1.37 91 35
33 Weber State 46.9% +1.36 91 31
34 Michigan 46.7% +1.30 91 34
35 UAB 46.6% +1.26 91 33
36 Houston 46.5% +1.21 90 38
37 Stephen F. Austin 46.3% +1.15 90 28
38 Saint Mary's 46.3% +1.13 90 33
39 Wright State 46.3% +1.12 89 35
40 Kansas City 46.2% +1.11 89 27
41 Baylor 46.2% +1.08 89 34
42 Western Kentucky 46.2% +1.08 89 30
43 Bellarmine 46.2% +1.07 88 29
44 VCU 46.1% +1.06 88 32
45 Murray State 46.1% +1.06 88 31
46 Iowa 46.1% +1.06 87 36
47 Denver 46.1% +1.05 87 30
48 Liberty 46.1% +1.04 87 30
49 Nicholls 46.0% +1.01 87 29
50 Charlotte 46.0% +1.00 86 31
51 LSU New Orleans 46.0% +0.99 86 29
52 Furman 46.0% +0.99 86 33
53 Notre Dame 45.9% +0.98 85 34
54 Drexel 45.9% +0.98 85 28
55 Hofstra 45.9% +0.96 85 30
56 South Alabama 45.9% +0.95 85 30
57 Florida Atlantic 45.8% +0.93 84 31
58 Drake 45.8% +0.92 84 34
59 South Dakota 45.8% +0.92 84 29
60 Southern Utah 45.7% +0.89 84 33
61 Bucknell 45.7% +0.88 83 32
62 Rhode Island 45.7% +0.87 83 30
63 Robert Morris 45.7% +0.87 83 31
64 Wagner 45.6% +0.86 82 26
65 Chattanooga 45.6% +0.85 82 33
66 Michigan State 45.6% +0.84 82 36
67 Clemson 45.6% +0.82 82 33
68 Cornell 45.5% +0.82 81 24
69 Mississippi State 45.5% +0.79 81 34
70 Jacksonville State 45.5% +0.78 81 30
71 USC 45.5% +0.78 80 34
72 Wyoming 45.4% +0.77 80 33
73 San Francisco 45.4% +0.77 80 33
74 Indiana 45.4% +0.77 80 35
75 Mercer 45.4% +0.77 79 31
76 BYU 45.4% +0.76 79 33
77 Loyola Marymount 45.4% +0.75 79 28
78 Wofford 45.4% +0.74 78 30
79 Northern Iowa 45.3% +0.74 78 31
80 St. John's 45.3% +0.74 78 32
81 Oral Roberts 45.3% +0.72 78 28
82 North Dakota State 45.3% +0.72 77 31
83 St. Bonaventure 45.3% +0.71 77 33
84 Rice 45.3% +0.70 77 31
85 Lipscomb 45.3% +0.70 77 30
86 Texas State 45.3% +0.70 76 26
87 Morehead State 45.2% +0.69 76 31
88 Buffalo 45.2% +0.68 76 28
89 Boston University 45.2% +0.68 75 34
90 Akron 45.2% +0.67 75 32
91 Oregon 45.1% +0.65 75 34
92 Eastern Washington 45.1% +0.65 75 32
93 Saint Louis 45.1% +0.65 74 34
94 Xavier 45.1% +0.64 74 36
95 Purdue Fort Wayne 45.1% +0.64 74 31
96 Syracuse 45.1% +0.63 73 33
97 New Mexico State 45.1% +0.63 73 31
98 Utah Valley 45.1% +0.63 73 30
99 VMI 45.1% +0.62 73 29
100 Campbell 45.1% +0.61 72 26
101 UCLA 45.0% +0.60 72 35
102 James Madison 45.0% +0.60 72 27
103 Florida Gulf Coast 45.0% +0.59 72 32
104 American University 45.0% +0.58 71 32
105 Kennesaw State 45.0% +0.58 71 27
106 Marquette 45.0% +0.58 71 32
107 Illinois State 44.9% +0.57 70 31
108 Hartford 44.9% +0.57 70 32
109 Louisiana Tech 44.9% +0.56 70 31
110 Virginia 44.9% +0.55 70 35
111 Valparaiso 44.9% +0.54 69 30
112 Illinois 44.8% +0.52 69 33
113 Norfolk State 44.8% +0.51 69 28
114 Lehigh 44.8% +0.51 68 31
115 Creighton 44.8% +0.49 68 35
116 Towson 44.8% +0.49 68 35
117 Iona 44.7% +0.46 68 33
118 North Carolina 44.7% +0.46 67 39
119 Nevada 44.6% +0.45 67 30
120 Pennsylvania 44.6% +0.43 67 28
121 Samford 44.6% +0.42 66 29
122 George Mason 44.6% +0.42 66 30
123 Rutgers 44.5% +0.39 66 32
124 Fresno State 44.5% +0.38 66 35
125 UMBC 44.4% +0.34 65 31
126 Youngstown State 44.4% +0.34 65 32
127 Nebraska 44.4% +0.34 65 32
128 Bradley 44.4% +0.33 65 30
129 SE Louisiana 44.4% +0.33 64 30
130 UL Monroe 44.3% +0.33 64 28
131 Middle Tennessee 44.3% +0.32 64 35
132 East Tennessee State 44.3% +0.32 63 30
133 Arkansas State 44.3% +0.30 63 26
134 Oregon State 44.3% +0.30 63 31
135 South Carolina Upstate 44.3% +0.30 63 30
136 Loyola Maryland 44.3% +0.29 62 29
137 Colorado 44.2% +0.28 62 33
138 Georgia 44.2% +0.28 62 32
139 UC Riverside 44.2% +0.28 61 26
140 Richmond 44.2% +0.27 61 37
141 Tulane 44.2% +0.26 61 29
142 Boise State 44.2% +0.25 61 34
143 Longwood 44.2% +0.25 60 29
144 Montana 44.2% +0.25 60 29
145 Sacred Heart 44.2% +0.25 60 29
146 Southern Illinois 44.1% +0.24 59 30
147 Texas 44.1% +0.23 59 34
148 Texas A&M 44.0% +0.20 59 39
149 SMU 44.0% +0.20 59 33
150 Ball State 44.0% +0.17 58 30
151 UNC Asheville 44.0% +0.17 58 29
152 Alabama 43.9% +0.16 58 33
153 Marist 43.9% +0.15 58 30
154 Cal State Fullerton 43.9% +0.15 57 30
155 TCU 43.9% +0.15 57 34
156 Charleston 43.9% +0.14 57 32
157 Tennessee Tech 43.9% +0.13 56 30
158 Southeast Missouri State 43.9% +0.13 56 30
159 Yale 43.8% +0.12 56 30
160 LSU 43.8% +0.12 56 34
161 North Texas 43.8% +0.11 55 30
162 Minnesota 43.8% +0.10 55 30
163 UT Rio Grande Valley 43.8% +0.08 55 29
164 UC San Diego 43.7% +0.08 54 27
165 UIC 43.7% +0.05 54 29
166 Northeastern 43.7% +0.04 54 31
167 Georgia Tech 43.7% +0.04 54 31
168 Air Force 43.6% +0.03 53 29
169 Detroit Mercy 43.6% +0.03 53 29
170 Northwestern State 43.6% +0.01 53 29
171 Coastal Carolina 43.6% -0.00 53 29
172 UConn 43.5% -0.01 52 33
173 Auburn 43.5% -0.01 52 34
174 Stony Brook 43.5% -0.01 52 30
175 UC Davis 43.5% -0.02 51 22
176 Marshall 43.5% -0.02 51 31
177 Ole Miss 43.5% -0.03 51 32
178 Providence 43.5% -0.04 51 33
179 McNeese 43.5% -0.04 50 29
180 Mount St. Mary's 43.5% -0.04 50 29
181 St. Thomas 43.5% -0.04 50 27
182 High Point 43.4% -0.04 49 29
183 Tennessee State 43.4% -0.05 49 30
184 Idaho 43.4% -0.05 49 29
185 Gardner-Webb 43.4% -0.06 49 28
186 Oklahoma State 43.4% -0.06 48 30
187 Tennessee 43.4% -0.06 48 35
188 Tulsa 43.4% -0.07 48 31
189 Manhattan 43.4% -0.07 47 29
190 Florida State 43.4% -0.07 47 31
191 Arkansas 43.4% -0.07 47 37
192 Kent State 43.4% -0.08 47 32
193 New Hampshire 43.4% -0.08 46 26
194 DePaul 43.3% -0.09 46 31
195 The Citadel 43.3% -0.09 46 28
196 Hawai'i 43.3% -0.09 46 26
197 Houston Christian 43.3% -0.10 45 25
198 Maryland 43.3% -0.10 45 32
199 Massachusetts 43.3% -0.11 45 32
200 Texas Southern 43.3% -0.11 44 32
201 Jacksonville 43.3% -0.12 44 27
202 Stanford 43.3% -0.12 44 32
203 Long Beach State 43.3% -0.12 44 31
204 Army 43.3% -0.12 43 29
205 Indiana State 43.2% -0.13 43 28
206 Portland 43.2% -0.13 43 32
207 Brown 43.2% -0.14 42 27
208 Villanova 43.2% -0.14 42 38
209 Southern 43.2% -0.14 42 29
210 Penn State 43.2% -0.14 42 31
211 San Diego State 43.2% -0.14 41 32
212 UMass Lowell 43.2% -0.15 41 28
213 Howard 43.2% -0.15 41 26
214 Lafayette 43.1% -0.17 41 29
215 Old Dominion 43.1% -0.17 40 31
216 Omaha 43.1% -0.18 40 29
217 Iowa State 43.1% -0.18 40 35
218 Niagara 43.1% -0.18 39 29
219 Bryant 43.0% -0.21 39 31
220 Miami (OH) 43.0% -0.22 39 29
221 Ohio 43.0% -0.23 39 34
222 UNC Greensboro 43.0% -0.23 38 31
223 UC Irvine 43.0% -0.23 38 23
224 Central Arkansas 43.0% -0.24 38 29
225 Sacramento State 42.9% -0.25 37 27
226 Oakland 42.9% -0.26 37 30
227 Grand Canyon 42.9% -0.26 37 29
228 New Mexico 42.9% -0.28 37 30
229 Western Illinois 42.8% -0.29 36 30
230 George Washington 42.8% -0.29 36 30
231 Boston College 42.8% -0.30 36 33
232 Prairie View A&M 42.8% -0.32 35 27
233 California Baptist 42.7% -0.33 35 31
234 Eastern Michigan 42.7% -0.34 35 30
235 Harvard 42.7% -0.34 35 23
236 Fairfield 42.7% -0.35 34 32
237 Binghamton 42.6% -0.38 34 27
238 Siena 42.6% -0.38 34 29
239 UTEP 42.6% -0.39 34 32
240 Florida 42.6% -0.39 33 34
241 Quinnipiac 42.6% -0.39 33 30
242 East Texas A&M 42.6% -0.40 33 2
243 Georgia Southern 42.6% -0.40 32 26
244 Abilene Christian 42.5% -0.43 32 32
245 Bowling Green 42.5% -0.43 32 29
246 North Carolina Central 42.5% -0.43 32 27
247 Missouri 42.5% -0.45 31 32
248 Vanderbilt 42.4% -0.46 31 36
249 Northern Kentucky 42.4% -0.47 31 30
250 Navy 42.4% -0.47 30 31
251 Northwestern 42.4% -0.49 30 30
252 UCF 42.3% -0.50 30 30
253 Louisiana 42.3% -0.50 30 29
254 San Diego 42.3% -0.52 29 29
255 Alabama State 42.3% -0.54 29 30
256 Saint Peter's 42.2% -0.54 29 33
257 Louisville 42.2% -0.54 28 32
258 Southern Miss 42.2% -0.55 28 31
259 Wisconsin 42.2% -0.55 28 33
260 Columbia 42.2% -0.56 28 25
261 Long Island University 42.2% -0.56 27 29
262 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 42.2% -0.56 27 31
263 UNC Wilmington 42.2% -0.58 27 34
264 Florida A&M 42.1% -0.58 27 28
265 Milwaukee 42.1% -0.59 26 31
266 Saint Joseph's 42.1% -0.60 26 30
267 Florida International 42.1% -0.61 26 30
268 San José State 42.1% -0.61 25 30
269 California 42.0% -0.62 25 32
270 Portland State 42.0% -0.62 25 29
271 Kansas State 42.0% -0.63 25 31
272 UNLV 42.0% -0.63 24 31
273 Saint Francis 42.0% -0.66 24 29
274 Northern Illinois 41.9% -0.67 24 30
275 South Carolina 41.9% -0.70 23 30
276 Utah 41.9% -0.70 23 31
277 Merrimack 41.8% -0.70 23 29
278 Monmouth 41.8% -0.71 23 34
279 Stetson 41.8% -0.71 22 26
280 Elon 41.7% -0.75 22 30
281 Western Michigan 41.7% -0.76 22 28
282 Green Bay 41.7% -0.77 22 29
283 Pepperdine 41.5% -0.83 21 31
284 Little Rock 41.5% -0.86 21 25
285 Tarleton State 41.5% -0.86 21 28
286 Morgan State 41.4% -0.88 20 24
287 Pittsburgh 41.4% -0.88 20 32
288 Arizona State 41.4% -0.90 20 31
289 La Salle 41.4% -0.90 20 30
290 SIU Edwardsville 41.4% -0.90 19 30
291 West Virginia 41.3% -0.92 19 33
292 Seton Hall 41.3% -0.93 19 31
293 Washington 41.3% -0.94 18 32
294 NC State 41.3% -0.94 18 32
295 North Carolina A&T 41.3% -0.95 18 29
296 Sam Houston 41.2% -0.96 18 30
297 Alcorn State 41.2% -0.97 17 34
298 Rider 41.2% -0.97 17 32
299 Idaho State 41.2% -0.99 17 28
300 Bethune-Cookman 41.1% -1.00 16 29
301 Troy 41.1% -1.00 16 29
302 Cal State Bakersfield 41.1% -1.00 16 25
303 App State 41.1% -1.01 16 31
304 UAlbany 41.0% -1.05 15 31
305 Pacific 41.0% -1.05 15 28
306 Utah Tech 41.0% -1.05 15 27
307 Central Michigan 40.9% -1.08 15 30
308 Cal Poly 40.9% -1.09 14 27
309 Butler 40.9% -1.10 14 31
310 Maine 40.9% -1.11 14 26
311 Jackson State 40.8% -1.14 13 30
312 Northern Arizona 40.7% -1.15 13 30
313 Seattle U 40.7% -1.16 13 30
314 UT Martin 40.7% -1.17 13 28
315 NJIT 40.6% -1.20 12 28
316 Fairleigh Dickinson 40.6% -1.20 12 26
317 Dartmouth 40.6% -1.20 12 24
318 Incarnate Word 40.6% -1.21 11 29
319 East Carolina 40.6% -1.21 11 30
320 Washington State 40.6% -1.23 11 37
321 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 40.5% -1.24 11 29
322 Presbyterian 40.5% -1.24 10 29
323 Radford 40.4% -1.28 10 27
324 UT Arlington 40.3% -1.33 10 27
325 Holy Cross 40.3% -1.33 9 29
326 Duquesne 40.3% -1.35 9 30
327 Wichita State 40.3% -1.35 9 28
328 Cincinnati 40.2% -1.37 9 32
329 St. Francis Brooklyn 40.2% -1.37 8 29
330 Grambling 40.2% -1.38 8 30
331 North Florida 40.1% -1.40 8 28
332 Eastern Kentucky 40.1% -1.41 8 27
333 Georgetown 40.0% -1.45 7 31
334 Cal State Northridge 39.9% -1.50 7 28
335 William & Mary 39.9% -1.51 7 31
336 Western Carolina 39.9% -1.51 6 31
337 Lamar 39.9% -1.52 6 27
338 Austin Peay 39.7% -1.57 6 27
339 North Dakota 39.7% -1.57 6 29
340 Delaware State 39.7% -1.58 5 25
341 Canisius 39.5% -1.65 5 31
342 Temple 39.5% -1.68 5 29
343 Fordham 39.4% -1.70 4 32
344 Central Connecticut 39.3% -1.74 4 32
345 Evansville 39.3% -1.75 4 29
346 Charleston Southern 39.3% -1.76 4 28
347 Hampton 38.9% -1.90 3 26
348 Chicago State 38.9% -1.92 3 32
349 Georgia State 38.8% -1.94 3 26
350 UTSA 38.8% -1.96 3 29
351 Maryland Eastern Shore 38.6% -2.02 2 24
352 Coppin State 38.6% -2.03 2 32
353 Mississippi Valley State 38.6% -2.04 2 28
354 Eastern Illinois 38.5% -2.09 1 29
355 South Carolina State 38.3% -2.17 1 28
356 Alabama A&M 37.9% -2.34 1 30
357 South Florida 37.4% -2.52 1 31
358 North Alabama 37.4% -2.53 0 26
359 IU Indianapolis 37.3% -2.55 0 27