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← Scoring

Scoring Volatility

How much a team's game margins swing — the standard deviation of margin.

Sample standard deviation of per-game scoring margin. Low volatility means consistent performances; high volatility means blowouts mixed with duds, which makes a team's record less predictive.

Lower is better  ·  league avg 13.4  ·  as of 2022-04-05

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 4.2 max 19.2 mean 13.4 std 2.0 (n=359)

By Conference

A dot per team, best conference average at the top. The tick marks each conference's mean.

Does it predict winners?

Weak standalone predictor of the winner.

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Rankings

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# Team Scoring Volatility z Pctl GP
1 East Texas A&M 4.2 -4.66 100 2
2 Campbell 8.2 -2.66 100 26
3 VMI 8.6 -2.46 99 29
4 UIC 9.0 -2.23 99 29
5 Canisius 9.0 -2.23 99 31
6 Hampton 9.1 -2.17 99 26
7 Iona 9.2 -2.15 98 33
8 Lamar 9.2 -2.15 98 27
9 Davidson 9.7 -1.89 98 33
10 William & Mary 9.8 -1.85 97 31
11 North Carolina A&T 9.8 -1.81 97 29
12 Harvard 9.9 -1.80 97 23
13 UC Davis 9.9 -1.80 97 22
14 Holy Cross 9.9 -1.77 96 29
15 Cal State Bakersfield 10.0 -1.74 96 25
16 Florida A&M 10.0 -1.74 96 28
17 Wisconsin 10.2 -1.61 96 33
18 Georgia Southern 10.3 -1.60 95 26
19 Rider 10.4 -1.55 95 32
20 Cal State Fullerton 10.5 -1.49 95 30
21 Kent State 10.6 -1.45 94 32
22 Akron 10.6 -1.44 94 32
23 Delaware 10.6 -1.43 94 35
24 Chattanooga 10.6 -1.42 94 33
25 UNC Wilmington 10.6 -1.42 93 34
26 Boise State 10.7 -1.40 93 34
27 Florida International 10.7 -1.37 93 30
28 Jacksonville State 10.7 -1.37 92 30
29 App State 10.8 -1.35 92 31
30 North Texas 10.8 -1.32 92 30
31 Drexel 10.8 -1.31 92 28
32 New Mexico State 10.9 -1.27 91 31
33 Stetson 10.9 -1.25 91 26
34 Winthrop 11.0 -1.25 91 29
35 East Tennessee State 11.0 -1.25 91 30
36 Monmouth 11.0 -1.24 90 34
37 Georgia 11.0 -1.24 90 32
38 Radford 11.0 -1.22 90 27
39 Cal Poly 11.0 -1.21 89 27
40 Eastern Washington 11.0 -1.21 89 32
41 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 11.1 -1.19 89 31
42 Auburn 11.1 -1.18 89 34
43 Cleveland State 11.1 -1.17 88 29
44 Northern Colorado 11.1 -1.17 88 35
45 Sacred Heart 11.2 -1.13 88 29
46 Charleston 11.2 -1.10 87 32
47 Portland State 11.2 -1.10 87 29
48 UMass Lowell 11.3 -1.08 87 28
49 Charleston Southern 11.3 -1.08 87 28
50 Columbia 11.3 -1.07 86 25
51 Maryland 11.3 -1.05 86 32
52 Fairfield 11.4 -1.04 86 32
53 North Dakota 11.4 -1.04 85 29
54 South Alabama 11.4 -1.03 85 30
55 Loyola Maryland 11.4 -1.01 85 29
56 Middle Tennessee 11.4 -1.00 85 35
57 SE Louisiana 11.5 -0.99 84 30
58 Southern Illinois 11.5 -0.99 84 30
59 Bethune-Cookman 11.5 -0.99 84 29
60 Troy 11.6 -0.94 84 29
61 UNC Greensboro 11.6 -0.91 83 31
62 NC State 11.7 -0.89 83 32
63 Duquesne 11.7 -0.88 83 30
64 McNeese 11.7 -0.88 82 29
65 Little Rock 11.7 -0.87 82 25
66 Southern Miss 11.7 -0.86 82 31
67 Hartford 11.7 -0.86 82 32
68 USC 11.7 -0.85 81 34
69 Notre Dame 11.8 -0.84 81 34
70 Fordham 11.8 -0.80 81 32
71 Cal State Northridge 11.8 -0.80 80 28
72 SIU Edwardsville 11.9 -0.78 80 30
73 Howard 11.9 -0.78 80 26
74 Coastal Carolina 11.9 -0.77 80 29
75 Hawai'i 11.9 -0.76 79 26
76 Marshall 11.9 -0.76 79 31
77 Richmond 11.9 -0.75 79 37
78 Boston University 11.9 -0.75 78 34
79 Bucknell 11.9 -0.75 78 32
80 Mercer 11.9 -0.74 78 31
81 Northern Kentucky 12.0 -0.73 78 30
82 Texas A&M 12.0 -0.71 77 39
83 Rhode Island 12.0 -0.70 77 30
84 Wichita State 12.0 -0.70 77 28
85 East Carolina 12.1 -0.69 77 30
86 UC Riverside 12.1 -0.68 76 26
87 Princeton 12.1 -0.68 76 28
88 La Salle 12.1 -0.67 76 30
89 Oregon State 12.1 -0.67 75 31
90 Virginia 12.1 -0.66 75 35
91 George Mason 12.1 -0.66 75 30
92 Saint Peter's 12.1 -0.66 75 33
93 Pittsburgh 12.1 -0.65 74 32
94 Montana State 12.2 -0.64 74 33
95 Massachusetts 12.2 -0.61 74 32
96 Louisiana 12.2 -0.61 73 29
97 Miami 12.2 -0.61 73 37
98 UAlbany 12.2 -0.61 73 31
99 Samford 12.3 -0.58 73 29
100 Quinnipiac 12.3 -0.57 72 30
101 Miami (OH) 12.3 -0.57 72 29
102 Florida Gulf Coast 12.3 -0.56 72 32
103 UT Martin 12.3 -0.55 72 28
104 Eastern Kentucky 12.3 -0.55 71 27
105 New Hampshire 12.3 -0.54 71 26
106 Penn State 12.3 -0.54 71 31
107 Kansas 12.3 -0.54 70 40
108 James Madison 12.4 -0.54 70 27
109 San Diego State 12.4 -0.54 70 32
110 Tulane 12.4 -0.53 70 29
111 Maryland Eastern Shore 12.4 -0.52 69 24
112 The Citadel 12.4 -0.52 69 28
113 Jackson State 12.4 -0.50 69 30
114 George Washington 12.4 -0.50 68 30
115 Idaho State 12.4 -0.50 68 28
116 Northeastern 12.5 -0.48 68 31
117 South Carolina State 12.5 -0.48 68 28
118 Presbyterian 12.5 -0.48 67 29
119 Youngstown State 12.5 -0.48 67 32
120 Green Bay 12.5 -0.47 67 29
121 North Alabama 12.5 -0.44 66 26
122 Georgia Tech 12.6 -0.43 66 31
123 Towson 12.6 -0.43 66 35
124 Alabama State 12.6 -0.43 66 30
125 UTEP 12.6 -0.41 65 32
126 Northern Arizona 12.6 -0.41 65 30
127 Alabama 12.6 -0.39 65 33
128 UT Arlington 12.6 -0.39 65 27
129 Brown 12.7 -0.38 64 27
130 Valparaiso 12.7 -0.38 64 30
131 Niagara 12.7 -0.38 64 29
132 Oakland 12.7 -0.37 63 30
133 Robert Morris 12.7 -0.37 63 31
134 IU Indianapolis 12.7 -0.37 63 27
135 Colgate 12.7 -0.37 63 34
136 Tulsa 12.7 -0.35 62 31
137 South Florida 12.7 -0.35 62 31
138 Delaware State 12.7 -0.35 62 25
139 Louisville 12.7 -0.34 61 32
140 Hofstra 12.7 -0.34 61 30
141 Navy 12.7 -0.34 61 31
142 Siena 12.8 -0.32 61 29
143 Providence 12.8 -0.31 60 33
144 Ohio 12.8 -0.30 60 34
145 South Dakota State 12.8 -0.29 60 33
146 Western Carolina 12.9 -0.28 59 31
147 Northern Iowa 12.9 -0.28 59 31
148 VCU 12.9 -0.27 59 32
149 Clemson 12.9 -0.26 59 33
150 Saint Joseph's 12.9 -0.26 58 30
151 Austin Peay 12.9 -0.24 58 27
152 Chicago State 12.9 -0.24 58 32
153 Georgetown 13.0 -0.22 58 31
154 Minnesota 13.0 -0.20 57 30
155 Stanford 13.1 -0.17 57 32
156 Fresno State 13.1 -0.16 57 35
157 Pacific 13.1 -0.16 56 28
158 Rutgers 13.1 -0.14 56 32
159 Vermont 13.1 -0.14 56 33
160 Charlotte 13.1 -0.14 56 31
161 Cornell 13.1 -0.13 55 24
162 Louisiana Tech 13.2 -0.12 55 31
163 Purdue Fort Wayne 13.2 -0.12 55 31
164 Western Kentucky 13.2 -0.11 54 30
165 Memphis 13.2 -0.10 54 33
166 St. Francis Brooklyn 13.2 -0.09 54 29
167 UNC Asheville 13.2 -0.09 54 29
168 Duke 13.2 -0.09 53 39
169 Illinois State 13.3 -0.05 53 31
170 Kansas City 13.3 -0.04 53 27
171 Wyoming 13.4 -0.03 53 33
172 UCLA 13.4 -0.01 52 35
173 California Baptist 13.4 -0.01 52 31
174 High Point 13.4 -0.00 52 29
175 Murray State 13.4 -0.00 51 31
176 Missouri State 13.4 +0.01 51 33
177 Maine 13.4 +0.01 51 26
178 Denver 13.4 +0.02 51 30
179 Drake 13.4 +0.02 50 34
180 Central Connecticut 13.5 +0.03 50 32
181 Binghamton 13.5 +0.03 50 27
182 Pennsylvania 13.5 +0.05 49 28
183 Ohio State 13.5 +0.05 49 32
184 Arkansas 13.5 +0.05 49 37
185 Stephen F. Austin 13.5 +0.05 49 28
186 UC Irvine 13.5 +0.06 48 23
187 Vanderbilt 13.5 +0.06 48 36
188 Tarleton State 13.5 +0.06 48 28
189 Utah Valley 13.5 +0.07 47 30
190 Liberty 13.5 +0.07 47 30
191 Abilene Christian 13.5 +0.07 47 32
192 San Diego 13.5 +0.07 47 29
193 Pepperdine 13.6 +0.09 46 31
194 UAB 13.6 +0.09 46 33
195 Grambling 13.6 +0.09 46 30
196 Wofford 13.6 +0.09 46 30
197 TCU 13.6 +0.09 45 34
198 NJIT 13.6 +0.10 45 28
199 Houston Christian 13.6 +0.11 45 25
200 West Virginia 13.6 +0.11 44 33
201 Marquette 13.6 +0.11 44 32
202 Boston College 13.6 +0.12 44 33
203 Kansas State 13.6 +0.12 44 31
204 Lipscomb 13.7 +0.12 43 30
205 Dayton 13.7 +0.12 43 35
206 Idaho 13.7 +0.14 43 29
207 New Mexico 13.7 +0.14 42 30
208 Washington 13.7 +0.14 42 32
209 Furman 13.7 +0.16 42 33
210 Manhattan 13.7 +0.17 42 29
211 Buffalo 13.8 +0.18 41 28
212 Michigan State 13.8 +0.19 41 36
213 Creighton 13.8 +0.20 41 35
214 Arkansas State 13.8 +0.21 41 26
215 Northern Illinois 13.8 +0.22 40 30
216 St. Thomas 13.8 +0.22 40 27
217 Incarnate Word 13.9 +0.24 40 29
218 UC Santa Barbara 13.9 +0.24 39 26
219 Arizona State 13.9 +0.25 39 31
220 Georgia State 13.9 +0.26 39 26
221 Oklahoma State 13.9 +0.27 39 30
222 Indiana State 13.9 +0.27 38 28
223 Ole Miss 13.9 +0.27 38 32
224 Saint Mary's 13.9 +0.27 38 33
225 Eastern Michigan 14.0 +0.28 37 30
226 Eastern Illinois 14.0 +0.29 37 29
227 St. Bonaventure 14.1 +0.33 37 33
228 UC San Diego 14.1 +0.33 37 27
229 Lehigh 14.1 +0.36 36 31
230 Nicholls 14.1 +0.36 36 29
231 San Francisco 14.2 +0.38 36 33
232 DePaul 14.2 +0.38 35 31
233 Long Beach State 14.2 +0.41 35 31
234 LSU New Orleans 14.3 +0.43 35 29
235 Cincinnati 14.3 +0.44 35 32
236 Alcorn State 14.3 +0.44 34 34
237 SMU 14.3 +0.44 34 33
238 Army 14.3 +0.45 34 29
239 Colorado State 14.3 +0.45 34 30
240 Seton Hall 14.3 +0.46 33 31
241 Western Illinois 14.3 +0.47 33 30
242 Santa Clara 14.3 +0.48 33 33
243 Jacksonville 14.4 +0.49 32 27
244 South Carolina 14.4 +0.49 32 30
245 South Carolina Upstate 14.4 +0.50 32 30
246 Wright State 14.4 +0.52 32 35
247 Morehead State 14.4 +0.52 31 31
248 Merrimack 14.4 +0.52 31 30
249 Ball State 14.4 +0.52 31 30
250 Fairleigh Dickinson 14.4 +0.52 30 26
251 Washington State 14.4 +0.52 30 37
252 Air Force 14.5 +0.53 30 29
253 Southern 14.5 +0.54 30 29
254 Tennessee Tech 14.5 +0.55 29 30
255 Villanova 14.5 +0.55 29 38
256 Florida Atlantic 14.5 +0.56 29 31
257 Oral Roberts 14.6 +0.61 28 28
258 Texas State 14.6 +0.61 28 26
259 UCF 14.6 +0.61 28 30
260 Marist 14.6 +0.62 28 30
261 Seattle U 14.6 +0.63 27 30
262 Wake Forest 14.7 +0.63 27 35
263 California 14.7 +0.64 27 32
264 Gardner-Webb 14.7 +0.64 27 28
265 Southern Utah 14.7 +0.68 26 33
266 Portland 14.8 +0.70 26 32
267 Utah Tech 14.8 +0.70 26 27
268 Saint Louis 14.8 +0.71 25 34
269 Colorado 14.8 +0.71 25 33
270 Mississippi State 14.8 +0.71 25 34
271 Lafayette 14.8 +0.72 25 29
272 Nevada 14.8 +0.73 24 30
273 Grand Canyon 14.9 +0.74 24 29
274 Dartmouth 14.9 +0.77 24 24
275 Florida 14.9 +0.77 23 34
276 Xavier 14.9 +0.77 23 36
277 North Florida 14.9 +0.78 23 28
278 UTSA 14.9 +0.78 23 29
279 Loyola Marymount 15.0 +0.78 22 28
280 BYU 15.0 +0.78 22 33
281 Old Dominion 15.0 +0.79 22 31
282 Bellarmine 15.0 +0.80 22 29
283 Kentucky 15.0 +0.80 21 34
284 American University 15.0 +0.82 21 32
285 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 15.0 +0.83 21 29
286 Coppin State 15.0 +0.83 20 32
287 Purdue 15.1 +0.84 20 37
288 Indiana 15.1 +0.85 20 35
289 Virginia Tech 15.1 +0.87 20 36
290 Kennesaw State 15.2 +0.89 19 27
291 North Carolina 15.2 +0.90 19 39
292 Rice 15.2 +0.92 19 31
293 UConn 15.2 +0.93 18 33
294 Iowa State 15.2 +0.93 18 35
295 Sam Houston 15.3 +0.94 18 30
296 Alabama A&M 15.3 +0.94 18 30
297 Oklahoma 15.3 +0.96 17 35
298 Utah State 15.3 +0.97 17 33
299 Nebraska 15.4 +0.99 17 32
300 Bradley 15.4 +1.00 16 30
301 San José State 15.4 +1.01 16 30
302 Michigan 15.4 +1.01 16 34
303 Montana 15.4 +1.02 16 29
304 Weber State 15.4 +1.03 15 31
305 Prairie View A&M 15.5 +1.04 15 27
306 Central Michigan 15.5 +1.07 15 30
307 North Carolina Central 15.5 +1.07 15 27
308 Tennessee State 15.5 +1.07 14 30
309 Texas Southern 15.5 +1.08 14 32
310 Sacramento State 15.6 +1.10 14 27
311 Utah 15.6 +1.10 13 31
312 Yale 15.6 +1.10 13 30
313 Iowa 15.6 +1.10 13 36
314 Gonzaga 15.6 +1.13 13 32
315 Milwaukee 15.6 +1.13 12 31
316 Butler 15.7 +1.14 12 31
317 Central Arkansas 15.7 +1.14 12 29
318 Bowling Green 15.7 +1.16 11 29
319 UT Rio Grande Valley 15.7 +1.18 11 29
320 Arizona 15.7 +1.18 11 37
321 UNLV 15.8 +1.19 11 31
322 Houston 15.8 +1.22 10 38
323 Stony Brook 15.8 +1.22 10 30
324 North Dakota State 15.9 +1.25 10 31
325 Elon 16.0 +1.30 9 30
326 Texas Tech 16.0 +1.30 9 37
327 Detroit Mercy 16.0 +1.33 9 29
328 Morgan State 16.0 +1.34 9 24
329 St. John's 16.1 +1.36 8 32
330 Western Michigan 16.1 +1.37 8 28
331 Toledo 16.1 +1.38 8 33
332 Temple 16.2 +1.40 8 29
333 Northwestern 16.2 +1.44 7 30
334 Tennessee 16.3 +1.47 7 35
335 Syracuse 16.3 +1.48 7 33
336 Oregon 16.5 +1.56 6 34
337 South Dakota 16.5 +1.57 6 29
338 Loyola Chicago 16.5 +1.58 6 32
339 Southeast Missouri State 16.6 +1.61 6 30
340 Illinois 16.6 +1.63 5 33
341 Wagner 16.6 +1.64 5 26
342 Texas 16.7 +1.65 5 34
343 Baylor 16.7 +1.67 4 34
344 Longwood 16.7 +1.69 4 29
345 Norfolk State 16.8 +1.71 4 28
346 Omaha 16.8 +1.73 4 29
347 Evansville 16.9 +1.77 3 29
348 Mississippi Valley State 16.9 +1.78 3 28
349 Northwestern State 16.9 +1.79 3 29
350 Missouri 16.9 +1.79 3 32
351 UL Monroe 17.0 +1.83 2 28
352 Florida State 17.2 +1.94 2 31
353 LSU 17.3 +2.00 2 34
354 Saint Francis 17.4 +2.01 1 29
355 Mount St. Mary's 17.4 +2.01 1 29
356 Bryant 18.1 +2.38 1 31
357 Belmont 18.1 +2.39 1 32
358 Long Island University 18.2 +2.43 0 29
359 UMBC 19.2 +2.96 0 32