We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
← Four Factors

Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage

Opponent eFG%; a defense's shot-quality suppression.

(opponent FGM + 0.5×opponent 3PM) ÷ opponent FGA — effective field goal percentage computed on what opponents shot against this team.

Lower is better  ·  league avg 50.1%  ·  as of 2022-04-05

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 43.1% max 58.9% mean 50.1% std 2.8% (n=359)

By Conference

A dot per team, best conference average at the top. The tick marks each conference's mean.

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.64 (team entering with the better value wins 60% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Rankings

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# Team Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage z Pctl GP
1 Gonzaga 43.1% -2.52 100 32
2 Houston 43.3% -2.45 100 38
3 Grand Canyon 43.4% -2.42 99 29
4 UC Irvine 44.1% -2.16 99 23
5 San Diego State 44.1% -2.16 99 32
6 Auburn 44.2% -2.13 99 34
7 Saint Peter's 44.2% -2.10 98 33
8 Arizona 44.4% -2.06 98 37
9 VCU 44.4% -2.04 98 32
10 SMU 44.6% -1.99 97 33
11 USC 44.7% -1.95 97 34
12 Creighton 44.9% -1.87 97 35
13 Cincinnati 45.0% -1.84 97 32
14 LSU 45.1% -1.79 96 34
15 New Mexico State 45.2% -1.77 96 31
16 Texas Southern 45.3% -1.72 96 32
17 Utah Valley 45.4% -1.67 96 30
18 Gardner-Webb 45.5% -1.67 95 28
19 Temple 45.5% -1.65 95 29
20 Oklahoma State 45.6% -1.60 95 30
21 Seton Hall 45.6% -1.60 94 31
22 Texas Tech 45.8% -1.56 94 37
23 East Texas A&M 45.8% -1.55 94 2
24 Kansas 45.8% -1.53 94 40
25 Norfolk State 45.8% -1.53 93 28
26 Illinois 46.0% -1.47 93 33
27 UConn 46.0% -1.47 93 33
28 Indiana 46.2% -1.40 92 35
29 Alabama A&M 46.3% -1.36 92 30
30 Providence 46.3% -1.35 92 33
31 Arizona State 46.3% -1.35 92 31
32 North Texas 46.3% -1.35 91 30
33 Rhode Island 46.3% -1.35 91 30
34 Seattle U 46.4% -1.32 91 30
35 Tennessee 46.4% -1.32 91 35
36 Coastal Carolina 46.5% -1.29 90 29
37 Morehead State 46.5% -1.28 90 31
38 Iona 46.6% -1.26 90 33
39 Memphis 46.6% -1.25 89 33
40 Louisiana 46.8% -1.17 89 29
41 Dayton 46.9% -1.15 89 35
42 Washington State 46.9% -1.15 89 37
43 Hawai'i 46.9% -1.14 88 26
44 Kentucky 46.9% -1.14 88 34
45 Bradley 46.9% -1.14 88 30
46 Loyola Chicago 46.9% -1.14 87 32
47 Marquette 47.0% -1.12 87 32
48 Texas 47.0% -1.09 87 34
49 UC Riverside 47.1% -1.09 87 26
50 San Francisco 47.1% -1.08 86 33
51 Wyoming 47.1% -1.08 86 33
52 Duke 47.1% -1.07 86 39
53 Jacksonville 47.2% -1.05 85 27
54 Wake Forest 47.2% -1.03 85 35
55 Toledo 47.2% -1.03 85 33
56 Middle Tennessee 47.2% -1.02 85 35
57 South Carolina 47.2% -1.02 84 30
58 Wichita State 47.3% -1.02 84 28
59 Navy 47.3% -1.02 84 31
60 UC Davis 47.3% -1.01 84 22
61 Villanova 47.3% -1.01 83 38
62 Hampton 47.3% -0.99 83 26
63 Monmouth 47.3% -0.99 83 34
64 Texas A&M 47.4% -0.96 82 39
65 TCU 47.4% -0.96 82 34
66 Milwaukee 47.5% -0.94 82 31
67 California 47.5% -0.93 82 32
68 Arkansas 47.5% -0.92 81 37
69 North Dakota State 47.6% -0.91 81 31
70 Ohio State 47.6% -0.90 81 32
71 Bryant 47.6% -0.89 80 31
72 UCLA 47.6% -0.88 80 35
73 Saint Joseph's 47.7% -0.87 80 30
74 Vermont 47.7% -0.86 80 33
75 BYU 47.7% -0.86 79 33
76 South Alabama 47.7% -0.85 79 30
77 Jackson State 47.7% -0.85 79 30
78 Fresno State 47.7% -0.84 78 35
79 Baylor 47.8% -0.82 78 34
80 Fordham 48.0% -0.76 78 32
81 Iowa State 48.0% -0.76 78 35
82 Michigan State 48.1% -0.72 77 36
83 Colorado 48.1% -0.71 77 33
84 Cal Poly 48.1% -0.71 77 27
85 Fairfield 48.1% -0.71 77 32
86 Murray State 48.1% -0.71 76 31
87 UC Santa Barbara 48.1% -0.70 76 26
88 Wagner 48.1% -0.70 76 26
89 Towson 48.1% -0.70 75 35
90 Jacksonville State 48.1% -0.69 75 30
91 Buffalo 48.2% -0.69 75 28
92 California Baptist 48.2% -0.69 75 31
93 Saint Louis 48.2% -0.69 74 34
94 Niagara 48.2% -0.68 74 29
95 Florida A&M 48.2% -0.68 74 28
96 Louisiana Tech 48.2% -0.67 73 31
97 Saint Mary's 48.3% -0.65 73 33
98 Nicholls 48.3% -0.65 73 29
99 Georgia Southern 48.3% -0.65 73 26
100 Xavier 48.3% -0.64 72 36
101 Boise State 48.3% -0.64 72 34
102 Penn State 48.3% -0.64 72 31
103 Liberty 48.3% -0.64 72 30
104 South Florida 48.3% -0.63 71 31
105 UAB 48.3% -0.63 71 33
106 Marist 48.3% -0.63 71 30
107 UNLV 48.4% -0.60 70 31
108 Vanderbilt 48.5% -0.58 70 36
109 Santa Clara 48.5% -0.57 70 33
110 Troy 48.5% -0.57 70 29
111 Long Island University 48.5% -0.56 69 29
112 Mount St. Mary's 48.6% -0.55 69 29
113 Rutgers 48.6% -0.54 69 32
114 Sam Houston 48.6% -0.54 68 30
115 North Carolina 48.6% -0.52 68 39
116 UCF 48.7% -0.49 68 30
117 Missouri State 48.8% -0.48 68 33
118 DePaul 48.8% -0.47 67 31
119 Virginia 48.8% -0.46 67 35
120 North Florida 48.8% -0.46 67 28
121 UMass Lowell 48.8% -0.45 66 28
122 SIU Edwardsville 48.8% -0.44 66 30
123 Grambling 48.9% -0.43 66 30
124 Yale 48.9% -0.43 66 30
125 Wisconsin 48.9% -0.41 65 33
126 Colgate 48.9% -0.41 65 34
127 Virginia Tech 48.9% -0.41 65 36
128 St. John's 48.9% -0.40 65 32
129 Kent State 49.0% -0.40 64 32
130 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 49.0% -0.40 64 31
131 Notre Dame 49.0% -0.37 64 34
132 Siena 49.1% -0.36 63 29
133 Merrimack 49.1% -0.35 63 29
134 Akron 49.1% -0.34 63 32
135 Purdue 49.1% -0.34 63 37
136 Montana State 49.1% -0.34 62 33
137 Arkansas State 49.2% -0.32 62 26
138 Rider 49.2% -0.32 62 32
139 San Diego 49.2% -0.32 61 29
140 Stephen F. Austin 49.2% -0.31 61 28
141 Lehigh 49.2% -0.30 61 31
142 Coppin State 49.3% -0.29 61 32
143 Southern 49.3% -0.29 60 29
144 Drake 49.3% -0.27 60 34
145 UT Arlington 49.4% -0.26 60 27
146 Cleveland State 49.4% -0.25 59 29
147 Chattanooga 49.4% -0.25 59 33
148 Oklahoma 49.4% -0.25 59 35
149 Utah 49.4% -0.25 59 31
150 Florida 49.4% -0.25 58 34
151 Howard 49.4% -0.24 58 26
152 Belmont 49.4% -0.23 58 32
153 Northern Kentucky 49.5% -0.22 58 30
154 Kansas State 49.5% -0.20 57 31
155 High Point 49.5% -0.20 57 29
156 Davidson 49.5% -0.19 57 33
157 George Mason 49.6% -0.18 56 30
158 George Washington 49.6% -0.17 56 30
159 Tulane 49.6% -0.17 56 29
160 Utah State 49.6% -0.16 56 33
161 Oregon 49.6% -0.16 55 34
162 Delaware 49.6% -0.16 55 35
163 Mississippi State 49.6% -0.16 55 34
164 Portland 49.7% -0.14 54 32
165 Clemson 49.7% -0.14 54 33
166 Iowa 49.7% -0.13 54 36
167 Southern Illinois 49.7% -0.13 54 30
168 Old Dominion 49.7% -0.13 53 31
169 Michigan 49.7% -0.12 53 34
170 Alabama 49.8% -0.11 53 33
171 App State 49.8% -0.09 53 31
172 UTEP 49.9% -0.07 52 32
173 UNC Asheville 49.9% -0.07 52 29
174 Butler 49.9% -0.06 52 31
175 Binghamton 49.9% -0.05 51 27
176 South Carolina State 49.9% -0.05 51 28
177 La Salle 49.9% -0.05 51 30
178 Washington 49.9% -0.04 51 32
179 Georgia State 50.0% -0.04 50 26
180 Ohio 50.0% -0.03 50 34
181 LSU New Orleans 50.1% -0.00 50 29
182 Tennessee State 50.1% -0.00 49 30
183 Colorado State 50.1% +0.01 49 30
184 Georgia Tech 50.1% +0.02 49 31
185 Florida International 50.2% +0.04 49 30
186 Maryland 50.2% +0.04 48 32
187 Oakland 50.2% +0.04 48 30
188 North Alabama 50.2% +0.05 48 26
189 St. Bonaventure 50.3% +0.10 47 33
190 Louisville 50.4% +0.10 47 32
191 The Citadel 50.4% +0.10 47 28
192 UNC Greensboro 50.4% +0.12 47 31
193 Eastern Washington 50.4% +0.12 46 32
194 Alabama State 50.4% +0.13 46 30
195 New Hampshire 50.4% +0.13 46 26
196 Drexel 50.4% +0.13 46 28
197 Richmond 50.5% +0.15 45 37
198 East Carolina 50.5% +0.15 45 30
199 UNC Wilmington 50.5% +0.16 45 34
200 North Carolina Central 50.5% +0.16 44 27
201 Florida Gulf Coast 50.5% +0.16 44 32
202 Quinnipiac 50.6% +0.18 44 30
203 Campbell 50.6% +0.18 44 26
204 Northern Illinois 50.6% +0.18 43 30
205 West Virginia 50.6% +0.18 43 33
206 Western Kentucky 50.6% +0.19 43 30
207 Elon 50.6% +0.19 42 30
208 Syracuse 50.6% +0.20 42 33
209 Florida Atlantic 50.7% +0.21 42 31
210 Texas State 50.7% +0.22 42 26
211 UAlbany 50.7% +0.24 41 31
212 Boston University 50.7% +0.24 41 34
213 Northwestern 50.8% +0.26 41 30
214 UT Martin 50.8% +0.26 41 28
215 Rice 50.8% +0.27 40 31
216 Dartmouth 50.8% +0.27 40 24
217 Missouri 50.8% +0.28 40 32
218 Utah Tech 50.8% +0.28 39 27
219 North Carolina A&T 50.9% +0.29 39 29
220 Alcorn State 50.9% +0.30 39 34
221 Illinois State 50.9% +0.31 39 31
222 Youngstown State 51.0% +0.32 38 32
223 Prairie View A&M 51.0% +0.33 38 27
224 VMI 51.0% +0.33 38 29
225 Maryland Eastern Shore 51.0% +0.34 37 24
226 Winthrop 51.0% +0.34 37 29
227 NJIT 51.0% +0.35 37 28
228 Cornell 51.0% +0.35 37 24
229 Oral Roberts 51.1% +0.36 36 28
230 Cal State Fullerton 51.1% +0.38 36 30
231 Delaware State 51.1% +0.38 36 25
232 Brown 51.1% +0.39 35 27
233 Minnesota 51.2% +0.42 35 30
234 Morgan State 51.2% +0.42 35 24
235 Charleston 51.2% +0.43 35 32
236 Princeton 51.3% +0.43 34 28
237 Longwood 51.3% +0.46 34 29
238 South Dakota State 51.4% +0.46 34 33
239 Loyola Maryland 51.4% +0.47 34 29
240 Ole Miss 51.4% +0.47 33 32
241 Stanford 51.4% +0.48 33 32
242 Cal State Bakersfield 51.4% +0.50 33 25
243 Bethune-Cookman 51.5% +0.51 32 29
244 Tennessee Tech 51.5% +0.51 32 30
245 Air Force 51.5% +0.51 32 29
246 Canisius 51.5% +0.51 32 31
247 Lipscomb 51.5% +0.52 31 30
248 Nebraska 51.5% +0.52 31 32
249 Wright State 51.5% +0.52 31 35
250 Furman 51.5% +0.53 30 33
251 Boston College 51.5% +0.53 30 33
252 Eastern Michigan 51.6% +0.55 30 30
253 Hartford 51.6% +0.56 30 32
254 South Carolina Upstate 51.6% +0.57 29 30
255 UIC 51.6% +0.57 29 29
256 Indiana State 51.7% +0.58 29 28
257 Southern Utah 51.7% +0.59 28 33
258 Northeastern 51.7% +0.61 28 31
259 Montana 51.8% +0.64 28 29
260 St. Francis Brooklyn 51.9% +0.65 28 29
261 UT Rio Grande Valley 51.9% +0.65 27 29
262 Cal State Northridge 51.9% +0.65 27 28
263 Abilene Christian 51.9% +0.68 27 32
264 Radford 52.0% +0.68 27 27
265 Kansas City 52.0% +0.69 26 27
266 McNeese 52.0% +0.69 26 29
267 New Mexico 52.0% +0.70 26 30
268 Pittsburgh 52.0% +0.70 25 32
269 Marshall 52.0% +0.70 25 31
270 Long Beach State 52.1% +0.72 25 31
271 Pennsylvania 52.1% +0.72 25 28
272 Harvard 52.1% +0.72 24 23
273 Samford 52.1% +0.74 24 29
274 Manhattan 52.2% +0.77 24 29
275 Tulsa 52.2% +0.77 23 31
276 Florida State 52.2% +0.78 23 31
277 Valparaiso 52.3% +0.79 23 30
278 Weber State 52.3% +0.80 23 31
279 Denver 52.3% +0.82 22 30
280 Saint Francis 52.4% +0.83 22 29
281 Southeast Missouri State 52.4% +0.83 22 30
282 Ball State 52.4% +0.83 22 30
283 Nevada 52.4% +0.84 21 30
284 Tarleton State 52.4% +0.84 21 28
285 Miami 52.5% +0.89 21 37
286 Austin Peay 52.5% +0.89 20 27
287 Sacramento State 52.6% +0.92 20 27
288 Portland State 52.6% +0.93 20 29
289 Stony Brook 52.6% +0.93 20 30
290 Charlotte 52.6% +0.93 19 31
291 UC San Diego 52.7% +0.93 19 27
292 South Dakota 52.7% +0.95 19 29
293 Pepperdine 52.7% +0.95 18 31
294 UMBC 52.8% +0.98 18 31
295 Army 52.8% +0.98 18 29
296 IU Indianapolis 52.8% +0.99 18 27
297 Northern Colorado 52.8% +1.00 17 35
298 Mercer 52.8% +1.00 17 31
299 UL Monroe 52.9% +1.01 17 28
300 Western Illinois 52.9% +1.01 16 30
301 Lamar 52.9% +1.02 16 27
302 Central Connecticut 52.9% +1.02 16 32
303 Northern Arizona 53.0% +1.06 16 30
304 Stetson 53.0% +1.06 15 26
305 Green Bay 53.0% +1.07 15 29
306 Central Michigan 53.0% +1.08 15 30
307 Kennesaw State 53.1% +1.08 15 27
308 Robert Morris 53.1% +1.10 14 31
309 East Tennessee State 53.1% +1.10 14 30
310 Northwestern State 53.2% +1.13 14 29
311 Holy Cross 53.2% +1.13 13 29
312 Sacred Heart 53.2% +1.14 13 29
313 Idaho State 53.2% +1.15 13 28
314 Western Carolina 53.2% +1.15 13 31
315 American University 53.3% +1.15 12 32
316 James Madison 53.3% +1.17 12 27
317 Eastern Illinois 53.3% +1.18 12 29
318 Chicago State 53.3% +1.18 11 32
319 Purdue Fort Wayne 53.4% +1.20 11 31
320 Presbyterian 53.4% +1.20 11 29
321 NC State 53.4% +1.21 11 32
322 Western Michigan 53.4% +1.22 10 28
323 San José State 53.5% +1.23 10 30
324 Bowling Green 53.5% +1.23 10 29
325 Miami (OH) 53.5% +1.26 9 29
326 William & Mary 53.6% +1.28 9 31
327 Georgetown 53.6% +1.28 9 31
328 Lafayette 53.7% +1.31 9 29
329 SE Louisiana 53.7% +1.32 8 30
330 Bucknell 53.8% +1.33 8 32
331 Wofford 53.8% +1.33 8 30
332 Fairleigh Dickinson 53.8% +1.36 8 26
333 Northern Iowa 53.9% +1.38 7 31
334 Duquesne 54.0% +1.41 7 30
335 Southern Miss 54.0% +1.43 7 31
336 UTSA 54.2% +1.50 6 29
337 Hofstra 54.4% +1.55 6 30
338 Bellarmine 54.4% +1.56 6 29
339 Detroit Mercy 54.4% +1.56 6 29
340 Georgia 54.5% +1.60 5 32
341 Eastern Kentucky 54.6% +1.62 5 27
342 Idaho 54.6% +1.62 5 29
343 Loyola Marymount 54.7% +1.66 4 28
344 Central Arkansas 54.8% +1.69 4 29
345 Columbia 54.9% +1.74 4 25
346 Pacific 54.9% +1.76 4 28
347 Maine 54.9% +1.76 3 26
348 Oregon State 55.0% +1.79 3 31
349 Massachusetts 55.2% +1.86 3 32
350 Charleston Southern 55.2% +1.87 3 28
351 Houston Christian 55.3% +1.87 2 25
352 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 55.3% +1.88 2 29
353 Evansville 56.1% +2.18 2 29
354 North Dakota 56.3% +2.24 1 29
355 Omaha 56.3% +2.25 1 29
356 Little Rock 56.3% +2.26 1 25
357 Mississippi Valley State 56.6% +2.35 1 28
358 Incarnate Word 56.6% +2.37 0 29
359 St. Thomas 58.9% +3.17 0 27