This will be our year, took a long time to come "This Will Be Our Year" - The Zombies

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 11.8% max 36.1% mean 21.9% std 3.8% (n=359)

By Conference

A dot per team, best conference average at the top. The tick marks each conference's mean.

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.56 (team entering with the better value wins 54% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Rankings

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# Team Opponent Free Throw Rate z Pctl GP
1 Western Kentucky 11.8% -2.64 100 30
2 UMBC 12.9% -2.37 100 31
3 Duke 13.2% -2.30 99 39
4 Rice 15.1% -1.79 99 31
5 Creighton 15.1% -1.79 99 35
6 Oakland 15.2% -1.77 99 30
7 Notre Dame 15.4% -1.72 98 34
8 Toledo 15.4% -1.70 98 33
9 Duquesne 15.5% -1.68 98 30
10 North Carolina 15.5% -1.68 97 39
11 Purdue 15.6% -1.67 97 37
12 UC San Diego 15.6% -1.65 97 27
13 Army 15.7% -1.65 97 29
14 South Dakota State 15.8% -1.61 96 33
15 Gonzaga 15.9% -1.58 96 32
16 Princeton 15.9% -1.58 96 28
17 St. Bonaventure 15.9% -1.57 96 33
18 Morehead State 16.0% -1.55 95 31
19 Vermont 16.1% -1.54 95 33
20 Santa Clara 16.2% -1.51 95 33
21 Arizona 16.2% -1.50 94 37
22 Colgate 16.2% -1.50 94 34
23 Stony Brook 16.3% -1.48 94 30
24 Minnesota 16.4% -1.46 94 30
25 App State 16.4% -1.45 93 31
26 Florida Gulf Coast 16.4% -1.45 93 32
27 Lipscomb 16.5% -1.43 93 30
28 Eastern Illinois 16.5% -1.43 92 29
29 Belmont 16.5% -1.42 92 32
30 Northern Iowa 16.6% -1.41 92 31
31 Jacksonville State 16.6% -1.40 92 30
32 Virginia 16.6% -1.40 91 35
33 Miami 16.9% -1.33 91 37
34 Richmond 17.0% -1.31 91 37
35 Sacred Heart 17.0% -1.31 91 29
36 Dayton 17.1% -1.28 90 35
37 Valparaiso 17.1% -1.28 90 30
38 Bucknell 17.2% -1.25 90 32
39 Georgia 17.2% -1.23 89 32
40 Bryant 17.4% -1.20 89 31
41 San Diego 17.4% -1.18 89 29
42 Oral Roberts 17.5% -1.18 89 28
43 Tennessee Tech 17.6% -1.14 88 30
44 Murray State 17.6% -1.13 88 31
45 Syracuse 17.7% -1.12 88 33
46 SMU 17.7% -1.11 87 33
47 Coastal Carolina 17.7% -1.11 87 29
48 Saint Francis 17.8% -1.09 87 29
49 Lafayette 17.8% -1.07 87 29
50 Wyoming 17.9% -1.06 86 33
51 Cal State Fullerton 17.9% -1.05 86 30
52 Campbell 17.9% -1.05 86 26
53 Furman 18.0% -1.04 85 33
54 Maryland 18.2% -0.99 85 32
55 Saint Mary's 18.2% -0.97 85 33
56 Drexel 18.3% -0.97 85 28
57 Colorado State 18.3% -0.95 84 30
58 Villanova 18.3% -0.94 84 38
59 Kentucky 18.3% -0.94 84 34
60 Akron 18.5% -0.91 84 32
61 Columbia 18.5% -0.90 83 25
62 Stetson 18.5% -0.89 83 26
63 UNC Asheville 18.5% -0.89 83 29
64 Wisconsin 18.6% -0.89 82 33
65 East Tennessee State 18.6% -0.88 82 30
66 Wright State 18.6% -0.86 82 35
67 Iowa 18.7% -0.86 82 36
68 Boise State 18.7% -0.85 81 34
69 Purdue Fort Wayne 18.7% -0.84 81 31
70 Providence 18.8% -0.83 81 33
71 Michigan 18.8% -0.82 80 34
72 Northern Kentucky 18.9% -0.81 80 30
73 NJIT 18.9% -0.79 80 28
74 VMI 18.9% -0.78 80 29
75 Saint Joseph's 19.0% -0.78 79 30
76 Fresno State 19.0% -0.77 79 35
77 William & Mary 19.1% -0.75 79 31
78 North Dakota State 19.1% -0.75 78 31
79 Virginia Tech 19.1% -0.75 78 36
80 TCU 19.1% -0.74 78 34
81 Penn State 19.1% -0.74 78 31
82 USC 19.2% -0.73 77 34
83 Portland 19.2% -0.73 77 32
84 Utah Valley 19.2% -0.71 77 30
85 Chattanooga 19.2% -0.71 77 33
86 Xavier 19.3% -0.69 76 36
87 Hofstra 19.3% -0.69 76 30
88 Northeastern 19.3% -0.69 76 31
89 Oklahoma 19.4% -0.68 75 35
90 East Texas A&M 19.5% -0.64 75 2
91 San José State 19.5% -0.64 75 30
92 Baylor 19.5% -0.64 75 34
93 DePaul 19.5% -0.64 74 31
94 SE Louisiana 19.5% -0.63 74 30
95 The Citadel 19.5% -0.63 74 28
96 Weber State 19.5% -0.63 73 31
97 Mount St. Mary's 19.6% -0.62 73 29
98 Colorado 19.6% -0.62 73 33
99 Alabama A&M 19.6% -0.61 73 30
100 North Florida 19.6% -0.61 72 28
101 Longwood 19.6% -0.61 72 29
102 Quinnipiac 19.7% -0.58 72 30
103 Arkansas State 19.8% -0.56 72 26
104 Indiana State 19.8% -0.55 71 28
105 Ole Miss 19.9% -0.54 71 32
106 Kansas 19.9% -0.53 71 40
107 Old Dominion 19.9% -0.53 70 31
108 Stanford 19.9% -0.53 70 32
109 New Hampshire 20.0% -0.52 70 26
110 Coppin State 20.0% -0.51 70 32
111 American University 20.0% -0.50 69 32
112 Eastern Kentucky 20.0% -0.50 69 27
113 Georgetown 20.0% -0.50 69 31
114 Tulsa 20.0% -0.50 68 31
115 Michigan State 20.1% -0.49 68 36
116 Southern Miss 20.1% -0.48 68 31
117 Utah 20.1% -0.47 68 31
118 Illinois 20.2% -0.46 67 33
119 Dartmouth 20.3% -0.44 67 24
120 Tulane 20.3% -0.44 67 29
121 Charlotte 20.3% -0.43 66 31
122 UC Riverside 20.4% -0.40 66 26
123 Central Connecticut 20.5% -0.39 66 32
124 Pennsylvania 20.5% -0.39 66 28
125 Louisiana Tech 20.5% -0.39 65 31
126 Binghamton 20.5% -0.38 65 27
127 James Madison 20.5% -0.38 65 27
128 Mississippi State 20.5% -0.37 65 34
129 UCLA 20.5% -0.37 64 35
130 Utah State 20.5% -0.37 64 33
131 Western Carolina 20.6% -0.35 64 31
132 Oregon 20.6% -0.35 63 34
133 Long Beach State 20.6% -0.35 63 31
134 Siena 20.6% -0.35 63 29
135 Wake Forest 20.6% -0.34 63 35
136 Davidson 20.6% -0.34 62 33
137 Fordham 20.7% -0.33 62 32
138 Eastern Michigan 20.7% -0.33 62 30
139 Mercer 20.7% -0.33 61 31
140 Rutgers 20.7% -0.32 61 32
141 Marquette 20.7% -0.32 61 32
142 Marist 20.7% -0.32 61 30
143 Western Michigan 20.7% -0.31 60 28
144 Oregon State 20.8% -0.30 60 31
145 Buffalo 20.9% -0.28 60 28
146 Robert Morris 20.9% -0.28 59 31
147 Pittsburgh 20.9% -0.28 59 32
148 Southern Utah 21.0% -0.26 59 33
149 Southern Illinois 21.0% -0.25 59 30
150 George Washington 21.0% -0.24 58 30
151 Hartford 21.0% -0.23 58 32
152 Louisville 21.1% -0.23 58 32
153 San Diego State 21.1% -0.22 58 32
154 Wofford 21.1% -0.22 57 30
155 Holy Cross 21.1% -0.21 57 29
156 Boston University 21.1% -0.21 57 34
157 Florida 21.2% -0.20 56 34
158 North Dakota 21.2% -0.18 56 29
159 Missouri State 21.2% -0.18 56 33
160 Bellarmine 21.3% -0.18 56 29
161 Nebraska 21.3% -0.18 55 32
162 Incarnate Word 21.3% -0.18 55 29
163 Loyola Chicago 21.3% -0.17 55 32
164 Ohio State 21.3% -0.17 54 32
165 Massachusetts 21.3% -0.16 54 32
166 BYU 21.3% -0.16 54 33
167 Ohio 21.3% -0.16 54 34
168 New Mexico State 21.3% -0.16 53 31
169 Cornell 21.4% -0.14 53 24
170 Wichita State 21.5% -0.12 53 28
171 Seton Hall 21.5% -0.12 53 31
172 Long Island University 21.5% -0.12 52 29
173 Central Arkansas 21.5% -0.11 52 29
174 Nevada 21.6% -0.10 52 30
175 Niagara 21.6% -0.09 51 29
176 Texas Southern 21.6% -0.09 51 32
177 Florida State 21.6% -0.09 51 31
178 East Carolina 21.6% -0.09 51 30
179 Norfolk State 21.6% -0.08 50 28
180 Pacific 21.6% -0.08 50 28
181 Navy 21.6% -0.08 50 31
182 George Mason 21.7% -0.07 49 30
183 Washington 21.7% -0.06 49 32
184 Utah Tech 21.8% -0.05 49 27
185 Butler 21.8% -0.05 49 31
186 Delaware 21.8% -0.05 48 35
187 Youngstown State 21.8% -0.04 48 32
188 UConn 21.8% -0.03 48 33
189 Saint Louis 21.8% -0.03 47 34
190 Detroit Mercy 21.8% -0.03 47 29
191 Fairfield 21.9% -0.02 47 32
192 NC State 21.9% -0.02 47 32
193 La Salle 21.9% -0.01 46 30
194 UTSA 21.9% -0.00 46 29
195 UCF 21.9% +0.00 46 30
196 UNC Greensboro 22.0% +0.01 46 31
197 Texas Tech 22.0% +0.02 45 37
198 Miami (OH) 22.0% +0.03 45 29
199 Loyola Maryland 22.1% +0.04 45 29
200 Yale 22.1% +0.04 44 30
201 Little Rock 22.1% +0.04 44 25
202 UAB 22.1% +0.04 44 33
203 Marshall 22.1% +0.04 44 31
204 South Alabama 22.1% +0.05 43 30
205 Florida Atlantic 22.1% +0.05 43 31
206 Jacksonville 22.2% +0.07 43 27
207 Northern Colorado 22.2% +0.07 42 35
208 Clemson 22.2% +0.08 42 33
209 UNLV 22.3% +0.08 42 31
210 Kansas State 22.3% +0.09 42 31
211 Washington State 22.3% +0.09 41 37
212 North Texas 22.3% +0.10 41 30
213 Milwaukee 22.4% +0.11 41 31
214 Tennessee 22.4% +0.12 41 35
215 St. Francis Brooklyn 22.4% +0.13 40 29
216 Bradley 22.5% +0.14 40 30
217 UC Santa Barbara 22.5% +0.15 40 26
218 Pepperdine 22.6% +0.16 39 31
219 Samford 22.6% +0.16 39 29
220 Oklahoma State 22.6% +0.17 39 30
221 Florida International 22.6% +0.17 39 30
222 Towson 22.6% +0.18 38 35
223 Liberty 22.7% +0.21 38 30
224 Charleston Southern 22.7% +0.21 38 28
225 Evansville 22.8% +0.22 37 29
226 Grand Canyon 22.8% +0.22 37 29
227 UT Arlington 22.9% +0.24 37 27
228 Georgia Tech 22.9% +0.25 37 31
229 Georgia State 22.9% +0.26 36 26
230 UAlbany 23.0% +0.27 36 31
231 Hawai'i 23.0% +0.27 36 26
232 Bowling Green 23.0% +0.28 35 29
233 LSU New Orleans 23.0% +0.28 35 29
234 Temple 23.0% +0.28 35 29
235 Lehigh 23.0% +0.29 35 31
236 Memphis 23.0% +0.29 34 33
237 Rider 23.1% +0.31 34 32
238 Brown 23.1% +0.31 34 27
239 Indiana 23.2% +0.33 34 35
240 Canisius 23.3% +0.36 33 31
241 Arizona State 23.3% +0.36 33 31
242 Arkansas 23.3% +0.36 33 37
243 UC Irvine 23.4% +0.38 32 23
244 San Francisco 23.4% +0.38 32 33
245 Boston College 23.4% +0.39 32 33
246 UMass Lowell 23.4% +0.39 32 28
247 California Baptist 23.4% +0.40 31 31
248 Ball State 23.5% +0.42 31 30
249 High Point 23.6% +0.43 31 29
250 Idaho 23.6% +0.44 30 29
251 Winthrop 23.7% +0.47 30 29
252 Maine 23.8% +0.48 30 26
253 St. John's 23.8% +0.49 30 32
254 Eastern Washington 23.8% +0.49 29 32
255 Harvard 23.8% +0.50 29 23
256 Fairleigh Dickinson 23.8% +0.50 29 26
257 Denver 23.8% +0.50 28 30
258 Iona 23.9% +0.51 28 33
259 California 23.9% +0.52 28 32
260 South Florida 23.9% +0.52 28 31
261 UNC Wilmington 23.9% +0.52 27 34
262 St. Thomas 23.9% +0.53 27 27
263 Texas A&M 24.0% +0.54 27 39
264 Rhode Island 24.0% +0.54 27 30
265 Monmouth 24.0% +0.54 26 34
266 Illinois State 24.0% +0.54 26 31
267 UL Monroe 24.0% +0.55 26 28
268 Delaware State 24.1% +0.58 25 25
269 Merrimack 24.2% +0.59 25 29
270 UTEP 24.2% +0.60 25 32
271 West Virginia 24.3% +0.62 25 33
272 Troy 24.3% +0.62 24 29
273 Howard 24.3% +0.63 24 26
274 Green Bay 24.3% +0.63 24 29
275 Western Illinois 24.3% +0.63 23 30
276 Sacramento State 24.4% +0.65 23 27
277 Maryland Eastern Shore 24.5% +0.66 23 24
278 Georgia Southern 24.6% +0.70 23 26
279 Drake 24.6% +0.71 22 34
280 Manhattan 24.6% +0.71 22 29
281 Loyola Marymount 24.7% +0.71 22 28
282 South Dakota 24.7% +0.72 22 29
283 UT Rio Grande Valley 24.7% +0.72 21 29
284 Alabama State 24.7% +0.72 21 30
285 UIC 24.7% +0.73 21 29
286 Kennesaw State 24.8% +0.76 20 27
287 Alabama 24.9% +0.76 20 33
288 Cincinnati 24.9% +0.77 20 32
289 Tarleton State 24.9% +0.78 20 28
290 Houston 24.9% +0.78 19 38
291 Austin Peay 25.0% +0.79 19 27
292 Missouri 25.0% +0.80 19 32
293 Texas State 25.0% +0.81 18 26
294 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 25.1% +0.82 18 29
295 Auburn 25.1% +0.84 18 34
296 Hampton 25.1% +0.84 18 26
297 Northwestern 25.2% +0.85 17 30
298 Jackson State 25.3% +0.87 17 30
299 Northern Arizona 25.3% +0.87 17 30
300 Northwestern State 25.3% +0.88 16 29
301 Vanderbilt 25.3% +0.89 16 36
302 Central Michigan 25.4% +0.91 16 30
303 Sam Houston 25.4% +0.91 16 30
304 Kent State 25.7% +1.00 15 32
305 Idaho State 25.9% +1.03 15 28
306 Mississippi Valley State 25.9% +1.04 15 28
307 UC Davis 26.0% +1.07 15 22
308 Nicholls 26.0% +1.07 14 29
309 New Mexico 26.0% +1.08 14 30
310 LSU 26.1% +1.08 14 34
311 Cleveland State 26.1% +1.10 13 29
312 Florida A&M 26.1% +1.10 13 28
313 Wagner 26.2% +1.12 13 26
314 South Carolina State 26.2% +1.12 13 28
315 Bethune-Cookman 26.2% +1.12 12 29
316 Alcorn State 26.4% +1.16 12 34
317 Iowa State 26.4% +1.16 12 35
318 North Carolina A&T 26.5% +1.19 11 29
319 Louisiana 26.6% +1.21 11 29
320 Texas 26.6% +1.23 11 34
321 UT Martin 26.7% +1.24 11 28
322 Gardner-Webb 27.0% +1.32 10 28
323 Stephen F. Austin 27.0% +1.32 10 28
324 VCU 27.1% +1.36 10 32
325 South Carolina Upstate 27.1% +1.36 9 30
326 Montana State 27.2% +1.37 9 33
327 Radford 27.2% +1.38 9 27
328 Charleston 27.2% +1.38 9 32
329 Lamar 27.2% +1.39 8 27
330 Middle Tennessee 27.3% +1.40 8 35
331 Portland State 27.3% +1.41 8 29
332 SIU Edwardsville 27.3% +1.42 8 30
333 Seattle U 27.5% +1.45 7 30
334 Omaha 27.5% +1.45 7 29
335 Cal State Northridge 27.7% +1.51 7 28
336 North Alabama 27.8% +1.53 6 26
337 Chicago State 27.8% +1.54 6 32
338 Cal Poly 27.8% +1.54 6 27
339 IU Indianapolis 27.9% +1.57 6 27
340 Grambling 28.0% +1.59 5 30
341 Tennessee State 28.1% +1.63 5 30
342 Houston Christian 28.4% +1.70 5 25
343 Southeast Missouri State 29.0% +1.86 4 30
344 South Carolina 29.1% +1.88 4 30
345 McNeese 29.3% +1.93 4 29
346 Northern Illinois 29.5% +1.97 4 30
347 Air Force 29.6% +2.00 3 29
348 Presbyterian 29.7% +2.04 3 29
349 Prairie View A&M 29.9% +2.08 3 27
350 Saint Peter's 29.9% +2.10 3 33
351 Morgan State 31.0% +2.37 2 24
352 North Carolina Central 31.1% +2.39 2 27
353 Montana 31.2% +2.43 2 29
354 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 31.9% +2.60 1 31
355 Southern 32.2% +2.70 1 29
356 Elon 32.9% +2.87 1 30
357 Kansas City 33.4% +3.01 1 27
358 Abilene Christian 35.4% +3.54 0 32
359 Cal State Bakersfield 36.1% +3.70 0 25