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← Four Factors

Opponent Turnover Rate

Share of opponent possessions a defense forces into turnovers.

Opponents' season turnovers ÷ opponents' season possessions. Possessions aren't in the box score, so they're estimated as FGA − OffReb + TO + 0.475×FTA (the standard estimator).

Higher is better  ·  league avg 18.4%  ·  as of 2022-04-05

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 12.7% max 27.9% mean 18.4% std 2.4% (n=359)

By Conference

A dot per team, best conference average at the top. The tick marks each conference's mean.

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.57 (team entering with the better value wins 54% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Rankings

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# Team Opponent Turnover Rate z Pctl GP
1 Abilene Christian 27.9% +4.02 100 32
2 Southern 25.2% +2.89 100 29
3 LSU 25.1% +2.84 99 34
4 Tarleton State 24.7% +2.66 99 28
5 Iowa State 24.6% +2.62 99 35
6 VCU 24.6% +2.61 99 32
7 Stephen F. Austin 24.5% +2.59 98 28
8 Maryland Eastern Shore 23.8% +2.29 98 24
9 Texas A&M 23.7% +2.23 98 39
10 Howard 23.5% +2.17 97 26
11 Portland State 23.4% +2.14 97 29
12 Morgan State 23.2% +2.03 97 24
13 Texas Tech 23.1% +2.02 97 37
14 Baylor 23.0% +1.95 96 34
15 Texas 23.0% +1.94 96 34
16 Tennessee 22.9% +1.91 96 35
17 Oklahoma State 22.8% +1.86 96 30
18 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 22.6% +1.79 95 31
19 West Virginia 22.5% +1.75 95 33
20 Merrimack 22.5% +1.72 95 29
21 Eastern Kentucky 22.4% +1.71 94 27
22 East Texas A&M 22.4% +1.69 94 2
23 Wagner 22.3% +1.65 94 26
24 North Carolina Central 22.2% +1.60 94 27
25 Georgia State 22.1% +1.58 93 26
26 Texas State 22.0% +1.54 93 26
27 Washington 22.0% +1.54 93 32
28 San Diego State 21.9% +1.49 92 32
29 Cleveland State 21.8% +1.45 92 29
30 Florida 21.8% +1.44 92 34
31 Purdue Fort Wayne 21.7% +1.40 92 31
32 Houston 21.7% +1.39 91 38
33 South Carolina 21.4% +1.29 91 30
34 St. John's 21.4% +1.26 91 32
35 Presbyterian 21.2% +1.20 91 29
36 Coppin State 21.2% +1.19 90 32
37 South Alabama 21.1% +1.16 90 30
38 Northern Kentucky 21.1% +1.13 90 30
39 UAB 21.0% +1.12 89 33
40 Kansas City 21.0% +1.09 89 27
41 Austin Peay 20.9% +1.08 89 27
42 Belmont 20.9% +1.07 89 32
43 Florida State 20.9% +1.06 88 31
44 Mississippi Valley State 20.8% +1.02 88 28
45 Sam Houston 20.8% +1.02 88 30
46 Loyola Maryland 20.7% +0.99 87 29
47 Harvard 20.7% +0.97 87 23
48 UAlbany 20.7% +0.96 87 31
49 UCF 20.6% +0.94 87 30
50 Vanderbilt 20.6% +0.94 86 36
51 South Carolina State 20.6% +0.94 86 28
52 Prairie View A&M 20.6% +0.93 86 27
53 Arkansas 20.6% +0.92 85 37
54 UTEP 20.6% +0.92 85 32
55 Saint Peter's 20.6% +0.92 85 33
56 James Madison 20.5% +0.90 85 27
57 Murray State 20.5% +0.90 84 31
58 Washington State 20.5% +0.90 84 37
59 Oakland 20.5% +0.90 84 30
60 IU Indianapolis 20.5% +0.89 84 27
61 Memphis 20.5% +0.89 83 33
62 Seattle U 20.5% +0.88 83 30
63 Ohio 20.4% +0.85 83 34
64 Miami 20.4% +0.84 82 37
65 Oklahoma 20.4% +0.84 82 35
66 Bethune-Cookman 20.3% +0.83 82 29
67 Hofstra 20.3% +0.82 82 30
68 Middle Tennessee 20.3% +0.82 81 35
69 Air Force 20.3% +0.82 81 29
70 Navy 20.3% +0.81 81 31
71 Troy 20.3% +0.81 80 29
72 Tulane 20.3% +0.81 80 29
73 UT Arlington 20.3% +0.80 80 27
74 Cal State Fullerton 20.3% +0.79 80 30
75 Radford 20.2% +0.77 79 27
76 Boise State 20.2% +0.76 79 34
77 Loyola Chicago 20.2% +0.75 79 32
78 Weber State 20.2% +0.75 78 31
79 Tulsa 20.1% +0.74 78 31
80 North Carolina A&T 20.1% +0.73 78 29
81 Cal State Bakersfield 20.1% +0.73 78 25
82 Auburn 20.1% +0.72 77 34
83 Longwood 20.1% +0.72 77 29
84 UNC Wilmington 19.9% +0.66 77 34
85 Little Rock 19.9% +0.65 77 25
86 Wichita State 19.9% +0.65 76 28
87 Manhattan 19.9% +0.63 76 29
88 Cal State Northridge 19.9% +0.62 76 28
89 LSU New Orleans 19.9% +0.62 75 29
90 Long Beach State 19.9% +0.62 75 31
91 Kansas State 19.8% +0.60 75 31
92 Western Kentucky 19.8% +0.60 75 30
93 Tennessee State 19.7% +0.57 74 30
94 SE Louisiana 19.7% +0.56 74 30
95 Northern Illinois 19.7% +0.54 74 30
96 Nicholls 19.7% +0.54 73 29
97 UMass Lowell 19.7% +0.54 73 28
98 Wofford 19.6% +0.53 73 30
99 Fordham 19.6% +0.50 73 32
100 Arizona State 19.6% +0.50 72 31
101 Alabama A&M 19.6% +0.50 72 30
102 Mississippi State 19.5% +0.46 72 34
103 Brown 19.5% +0.46 72 27
104 SIU Edwardsville 19.5% +0.45 71 30
105 UC Santa Barbara 19.5% +0.45 71 26
106 North Texas 19.5% +0.45 71 30
107 UL Monroe 19.4% +0.45 70 28
108 Kent State 19.4% +0.44 70 32
109 Delaware State 19.4% +0.43 70 25
110 Towson 19.4% +0.43 70 35
111 UCLA 19.4% +0.43 69 35
112 Fresno State 19.4% +0.43 69 35
113 Florida Atlantic 19.4% +0.42 69 31
114 Drake 19.4% +0.41 68 34
115 Ole Miss 19.4% +0.41 68 32
116 Northwestern 19.4% +0.41 68 30
117 Rhode Island 19.3% +0.40 68 30
118 Louisiana Tech 19.3% +0.39 67 31
119 Army 19.3% +0.39 67 29
120 Iowa 19.3% +0.38 67 36
121 Alabama State 19.3% +0.38 66 30
122 Arkansas State 19.3% +0.38 66 26
123 UC Davis 19.3% +0.37 66 22
124 Winthrop 19.2% +0.36 66 29
125 Montana 19.2% +0.35 65 29
126 Saint Mary's 19.2% +0.35 65 33
127 Oregon 19.2% +0.34 65 34
128 Grambling 19.2% +0.34 65 30
129 Furman 19.2% +0.33 64 33
130 Alcorn State 19.2% +0.32 64 34
131 St. Bonaventure 19.1% +0.31 64 33
132 Charleston 19.1% +0.30 63 32
133 Houston Christian 19.1% +0.29 63 25
134 UNC Asheville 19.0% +0.28 63 29
135 Dartmouth 19.0% +0.27 63 24
136 Iona 19.0% +0.26 62 33
137 Gardner-Webb 19.0% +0.25 62 28
138 Detroit Mercy 19.0% +0.25 62 29
139 Georgia Southern 19.0% +0.24 61 26
140 Duquesne 18.9% +0.23 61 30
141 North Alabama 18.9% +0.23 61 26
142 South Florida 18.9% +0.23 61 31
143 Mount St. Mary's 18.9% +0.20 60 29
144 Marquette 18.9% +0.20 60 32
145 St. Francis Brooklyn 18.9% +0.20 60 29
146 Richmond 18.8% +0.19 59 37
147 Central Connecticut 18.8% +0.19 59 32
148 Chicago State 18.8% +0.17 59 32
149 Boston College 18.8% +0.16 59 33
150 Pacific 18.8% +0.16 58 28
151 Southern Illinois 18.8% +0.16 58 30
152 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 18.7% +0.15 58 29
153 Georgia Tech 18.7% +0.14 58 31
154 Virginia Tech 18.7% +0.12 57 36
155 Wright State 18.7% +0.11 57 35
156 Florida A&M 18.6% +0.10 57 28
157 TCU 18.6% +0.09 56 34
158 Seton Hall 18.6% +0.07 56 31
159 Grand Canyon 18.6% +0.07 56 29
160 East Carolina 18.5% +0.07 56 30
161 Delaware 18.5% +0.07 55 35
162 Florida International 18.5% +0.05 55 30
163 UNC Greensboro 18.5% +0.04 55 31
164 Eastern Illinois 18.5% +0.04 54 29
165 Rider 18.4% +0.02 54 32
166 Colorado State 18.4% +0.02 54 30
167 Villanova 18.4% -0.00 54 38
168 Norfolk State 18.4% -0.00 53 28
169 UT Martin 18.4% -0.01 53 28
170 San Francisco 18.4% -0.01 53 33
171 NC State 18.4% -0.01 53 32
172 Nevada 18.3% -0.03 52 30
173 Campbell 18.3% -0.03 52 26
174 Utah State 18.3% -0.04 52 33
175 Maine 18.3% -0.05 51 26
176 Louisiana 18.3% -0.05 51 29
177 Virginia 18.3% -0.06 51 35
178 Saint Francis 18.2% -0.06 51 29
179 Green Bay 18.2% -0.07 50 29
180 Yale 18.2% -0.07 50 30
181 Long Island University 18.2% -0.08 50 29
182 Nebraska 18.2% -0.08 49 32
183 Jackson State 18.2% -0.08 49 30
184 Fairleigh Dickinson 18.2% -0.09 49 26
185 Montana State 18.2% -0.09 49 33
186 Incarnate Word 18.2% -0.10 48 29
187 Bradley 18.2% -0.10 48 30
188 Tennessee Tech 18.2% -0.10 48 30
189 Southeast Missouri State 18.1% -0.11 47 30
190 Chattanooga 18.1% -0.11 47 33
191 Xavier 18.1% -0.13 47 36
192 Georgetown 18.1% -0.13 47 31
193 Loyola Marymount 18.1% -0.13 46 28
194 Kennesaw State 18.1% -0.14 46 27
195 Kansas 18.1% -0.14 46 40
196 George Washington 18.0% -0.16 46 30
197 Northern Iowa 18.0% -0.17 45 31
198 Pepperdine 18.0% -0.17 45 31
199 Alabama 18.0% -0.17 45 33
200 Cornell 18.0% -0.18 44 24
201 New Mexico 18.0% -0.18 44 30
202 UConn 18.0% -0.18 44 33
203 William & Mary 17.9% -0.19 44 31
204 Miami (OH) 17.9% -0.19 43 29
205 Massachusetts 17.9% -0.20 43 32
206 Lamar 17.9% -0.20 43 27
207 Utah Tech 17.9% -0.21 42 27
208 Missouri 17.9% -0.21 42 32
209 UT Rio Grande Valley 17.9% -0.21 42 29
210 Samford 17.9% -0.21 42 29
211 Cincinnati 17.9% -0.21 41 32
212 App State 17.9% -0.22 41 31
213 McNeese 17.9% -0.23 41 29
214 High Point 17.8% -0.24 41 29
215 Marshall 17.8% -0.25 40 31
216 South Carolina Upstate 17.8% -0.25 40 30
217 Evansville 17.8% -0.25 40 29
218 Rutgers 17.8% -0.26 39 32
219 Canisius 17.8% -0.26 39 31
220 Monmouth 17.7% -0.29 39 34
221 Indiana 17.7% -0.30 39 35
222 Saint Louis 17.7% -0.30 38 34
223 Wake Forest 17.6% -0.32 38 35
224 Holy Cross 17.6% -0.33 38 29
225 Sacramento State 17.6% -0.33 37 27
226 Bellarmine 17.6% -0.33 37 29
227 Oregon State 17.5% -0.37 37 31
228 Kentucky 17.5% -0.38 37 34
229 Colorado 17.5% -0.39 36 33
230 Akron 17.5% -0.39 36 32
231 Arizona 17.4% -0.40 36 37
232 American University 17.4% -0.41 35 32
233 California Baptist 17.4% -0.42 35 31
234 Charleston Southern 17.4% -0.43 35 28
235 Illinois State 17.4% -0.43 35 31
236 Portland 17.4% -0.43 34 32
237 UTSA 17.4% -0.43 34 29
238 Stony Brook 17.4% -0.44 34 30
239 Texas Southern 17.4% -0.44 34 32
240 Coastal Carolina 17.3% -0.44 33 29
241 Bowling Green 17.3% -0.46 33 29
242 UC Irvine 17.3% -0.46 33 23
243 Morehead State 17.3% -0.46 32 31
244 UNLV 17.3% -0.47 32 31
245 Siena 17.3% -0.48 32 29
246 Western Illinois 17.3% -0.49 32 30
247 Southern Utah 17.2% -0.49 31 33
248 Lafayette 17.2% -0.49 31 29
249 Quinnipiac 17.2% -0.49 31 30
250 UC San Diego 17.2% -0.50 30 27
251 Temple 17.2% -0.51 30 29
252 Ball State 17.2% -0.51 30 30
253 Old Dominion 17.2% -0.51 30 31
254 Niagara 17.2% -0.53 29 29
255 Dayton 17.1% -0.53 29 35
256 George Mason 17.1% -0.53 29 30
257 Youngstown State 17.1% -0.56 28 32
258 Jacksonville State 17.1% -0.56 28 30
259 Butler 17.0% -0.58 28 31
260 Wisconsin 17.0% -0.58 28 33
261 Northwestern State 17.0% -0.58 27 29
262 Liberty 17.0% -0.59 27 30
263 Cal Poly 17.0% -0.60 27 27
264 Robert Morris 16.9% -0.62 27 31
265 Fairfield 16.9% -0.63 26 32
266 Clemson 16.9% -0.63 26 33
267 UIC 16.9% -0.63 26 29
268 Eastern Michigan 16.9% -0.63 25 30
269 Charlotte 16.9% -0.63 25 31
270 SMU 16.9% -0.64 25 33
271 Marist 16.9% -0.65 25 30
272 Vermont 16.9% -0.65 24 33
273 New Mexico State 16.8% -0.66 24 31
274 La Salle 16.8% -0.67 24 30
275 DePaul 16.8% -0.68 23 31
276 Syracuse 16.7% -0.70 23 33
277 Davidson 16.7% -0.71 23 33
278 North Florida 16.7% -0.72 23 28
279 Idaho State 16.7% -0.72 22 28
280 NJIT 16.6% -0.74 22 28
281 Hampton 16.6% -0.74 22 26
282 Central Michigan 16.6% -0.75 22 30
283 Bryant 16.6% -0.75 21 31
284 UMBC 16.6% -0.76 21 31
285 Elon 16.6% -0.77 21 30
286 East Tennessee State 16.6% -0.78 20 30
287 Pittsburgh 16.5% -0.79 20 32
288 Denver 16.5% -0.80 20 30
289 Boston University 16.5% -0.80 20 34
290 Valparaiso 16.5% -0.81 19 30
291 Hartford 16.5% -0.82 19 32
292 Jacksonville 16.4% -0.83 19 27
293 Santa Clara 16.4% -0.84 18 33
294 Stanford 16.4% -0.85 18 32
295 Columbia 16.4% -0.86 18 25
296 Central Arkansas 16.4% -0.86 18 29
297 Drexel 16.3% -0.91 17 28
298 Louisville 16.3% -0.91 17 32
299 St. Thomas 16.2% -0.92 17 27
300 Gonzaga 16.2% -0.93 16 32
301 Stetson 16.2% -0.95 16 26
302 Maryland 16.1% -0.97 16 32
303 UC Riverside 16.0% -1.00 16 26
304 San Diego 16.0% -1.01 15 29
305 Sacred Heart 15.9% -1.04 15 29
306 Binghamton 15.9% -1.04 15 27
307 Colgate 15.9% -1.05 15 34
308 Hawai'i 15.9% -1.05 14 26
309 Indiana State 15.9% -1.07 14 28
310 Minnesota 15.9% -1.08 14 30
311 Mercer 15.8% -1.08 13 31
312 Buffalo 15.8% -1.09 13 28
313 South Dakota State 15.8% -1.09 13 33
314 San José State 15.8% -1.10 13 30
315 Southern Miss 15.8% -1.11 12 31
316 Florida Gulf Coast 15.8% -1.12 12 32
317 Georgia 15.7% -1.14 12 32
318 Duke 15.7% -1.14 11 39
319 Missouri State 15.7% -1.15 11 33
320 Wyoming 15.7% -1.16 11 33
321 Northeastern 15.6% -1.17 11 31
322 Eastern Washington 15.6% -1.18 10 32
323 Utah Valley 15.6% -1.20 10 30
324 Providence 15.5% -1.21 10 33
325 Creighton 15.5% -1.21 9 35
326 Princeton 15.5% -1.22 9 28
327 South Dakota 15.5% -1.23 9 29
328 Illinois 15.5% -1.25 9 33
329 Pennsylvania 15.4% -1.27 8 28
330 Ohio State 15.4% -1.28 8 32
331 Utah 15.3% -1.31 8 31
332 Michigan State 15.3% -1.32 8 36
333 Toledo 15.2% -1.35 7 33
334 Notre Dame 15.1% -1.40 7 34
335 Western Michigan 15.0% -1.44 7 28
336 BYU 14.9% -1.47 6 33
337 Milwaukee 14.8% -1.51 6 31
338 Omaha 14.8% -1.54 6 29
339 Michigan 14.7% -1.56 6 34
340 California 14.7% -1.57 5 32
341 Lehigh 14.7% -1.58 5 31
342 Idaho 14.5% -1.67 5 29
343 USC 14.4% -1.69 4 34
344 Western Carolina 14.3% -1.73 4 31
345 Rice 14.2% -1.76 4 31
346 VMI 14.1% -1.80 4 29
347 Lipscomb 14.1% -1.81 3 30
348 Purdue 14.1% -1.82 3 37
349 New Hampshire 14.0% -1.88 3 26
350 Northern Colorado 13.8% -1.94 3 35
351 Northern Arizona 13.8% -1.95 2 30
352 The Citadel 13.8% -1.97 2 28
353 Bucknell 13.7% -1.97 2 32
354 Penn State 13.7% -1.98 1 31
355 Saint Joseph's 13.7% -1.98 1 30
356 North Dakota 13.7% -2.00 1 29
357 North Carolina 13.6% -2.02 1 39
358 North Dakota State 12.7% -2.42 0 31
359 Oral Roberts 12.7% -2.44 0 28