The black queen chants the funeral march, the cracked brass bells will ring / To summon back the fire witch to the court of the crimson king "The Court of the Crimson King" - King Crimson

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 51.3 max 87.2 mean 69.8 std 5.0 (n=359)

By Conference

A dot per team, best conference average at the top. The tick marks each conference's mean.

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.67 (team entering with the better value wins 62% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Rankings

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# Team Points Per Game z Pctl GP
1 Gonzaga 87.2 +3.50 100 32
2 South Dakota State 84.7 +2.99 100 33
3 Arizona 84.0 +2.85 99 37
4 Iowa 83.2 +2.69 99 36
5 Oral Roberts 81.5 +2.35 99 28
6 Duke 80.1 +2.06 99 39
7 St. John's 79.6 +1.97 98 32
8 Alabama 79.5 +1.95 98 33
9 Kentucky 79.4 +1.94 98 34
10 Purdue 79.4 +1.92 97 37
11 Toledo 79.1 +1.87 97 33
12 UAB 79.1 +1.87 97 33
13 Buffalo 78.7 +1.79 97 28
14 Princeton 78.6 +1.77 96 28
15 Wake Forest 78.5 +1.76 96 35
16 Auburn 78.2 +1.69 96 34
17 Kansas 78.2 +1.69 96 40
18 Charleston 78.2 +1.69 95 32
19 North Carolina 77.9 +1.63 95 39
20 Bowling Green 77.9 +1.62 95 29
21 Syracuse 77.4 +1.52 94 33
22 Santa Clara 77.3 +1.50 94 33
23 Northern Colorado 77.1 +1.47 94 35
24 Belmont 77.1 +1.47 94 32
25 Baylor 77.0 +1.45 93 34
26 VMI 77.0 +1.45 93 29
27 Hofstra 76.8 +1.41 93 30
28 Western Illinois 76.8 +1.41 92 30
29 Bryant 76.6 +1.37 92 31
30 Missouri State 76.5 +1.35 92 33
31 Florida Gulf Coast 76.5 +1.35 92 32
32 Furman 76.4 +1.33 91 33
33 San Francisco 76.3 +1.31 91 33
34 Murray State 76.3 +1.30 91 31
35 Cornell 76.3 +1.29 91 24
36 LSU New Orleans 76.0 +1.24 90 29
37 Arkansas 75.9 +1.23 90 37
38 Southern Utah 75.9 +1.22 90 33
39 SE Louisiana 75.9 +1.22 89 30
40 Southeast Missouri State 75.7 +1.18 89 30
41 Nicholls 75.7 +1.18 89 29
42 Massachusetts 75.7 +1.18 89 32
43 Wright State 75.5 +1.15 88 35
44 UCLA 75.4 +1.12 88 35
45 Eastern Kentucky 75.3 +1.11 88 27
46 Eastern Washington 75.2 +1.09 87 32
47 Iona 75.2 +1.09 87 33
48 Weber State 75.2 +1.08 87 31
49 Memphis 75.2 +1.07 87 33
50 Colgate 75.0 +1.04 86 34
51 Montana State 75.0 +1.04 86 33
52 Cleveland State 74.9 +1.02 86 29
53 Houston 74.8 +1.01 85 38
54 UConn 74.8 +1.01 85 33
55 Saint Louis 74.7 +0.98 85 34
56 Vermont 74.6 +0.97 85 33
57 Davidson 74.6 +0.96 84 33
58 Illinois 74.4 +0.93 84 33
59 Xavier 74.1 +0.86 84 36
60 Marquette 74.0 +0.85 84 32
61 Ball State 74.0 +0.83 83 30
62 Western Kentucky 74.0 +0.83 83 30
63 Miami 73.9 +0.83 83 37
64 The Citadel 73.9 +0.82 82 28
65 Abilene Christian 73.9 +0.82 82 32
66 BYU 73.8 +0.81 82 33
67 SMU 73.8 +0.80 82 33
68 Northern Iowa 73.8 +0.80 81 31
69 Long Island University 73.8 +0.79 81 29
70 Miami (OH) 73.8 +0.79 81 29
71 Illinois State 73.7 +0.78 80 31
72 South Dakota 73.7 +0.78 80 29
73 Louisiana Tech 73.7 +0.78 80 31
74 New Mexico 73.7 +0.77 80 30
75 Winthrop 73.7 +0.77 79 29
76 Middle Tennessee 73.6 +0.77 79 35
77 Ohio 73.6 +0.76 79 34
78 Howard 73.6 +0.76 78 26
79 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 73.5 +0.75 78 31
80 Seattle U 73.5 +0.75 78 30
81 Florida Atlantic 73.5 +0.74 78 31
82 Tennessee 73.5 +0.73 77 35
83 McNeese 73.4 +0.73 77 29
84 Wagner 73.3 +0.70 77 26
85 DePaul 73.3 +0.70 77 31
86 Nebraska 73.3 +0.70 76 32
87 Drake 73.3 +0.69 76 34
88 Samford 73.2 +0.67 76 29
89 Tulane 73.1 +0.67 75 29
90 North Dakota State 73.1 +0.67 75 31
91 Longwood 73.1 +0.66 75 29
92 NC State 73.0 +0.64 75 32
93 Marshall 73.0 +0.63 74 31
94 Colorado State 72.9 +0.62 74 30
95 Utah State 72.8 +0.61 74 33
96 Ohio State 72.8 +0.60 73 32
97 Stephen F. Austin 72.8 +0.59 73 28
98 St. Thomas 72.7 +0.57 73 27
99 Michigan 72.6 +0.57 73 34
100 LSU 72.6 +0.55 72 34
101 Rice 72.5 +0.54 72 31
102 Chattanooga 72.5 +0.54 72 33
103 Stony Brook 72.5 +0.53 72 30
104 Portland 72.4 +0.53 71 32
105 Long Beach State 72.4 +0.52 71 31
106 Northwestern 72.4 +0.52 71 30
107 USC 72.4 +0.52 70 34
108 Loyola Chicago 72.3 +0.51 70 32
109 Oregon 72.3 +0.50 70 34
110 Oakland 72.3 +0.50 70 30
111 Michigan State 72.3 +0.49 69 36
112 James Madison 72.1 +0.46 69 27
113 Texas Tech 72.1 +0.45 69 37
114 Notre Dame 72.1 +0.45 68 34
115 Norfolk State 72.0 +0.45 68 28
116 Pennsylvania 72.0 +0.45 68 28
117 UNC Asheville 72.0 +0.44 68 29
118 Texas A&M 71.9 +0.43 67 39
119 Idaho 71.9 +0.41 67 29
120 Lipscomb 71.8 +0.39 67 30
121 Drexel 71.8 +0.39 66 28
122 Villanova 71.7 +0.38 66 38
123 Clemson 71.7 +0.38 66 33
124 Nevada 71.7 +0.38 66 30
125 Northwestern State 71.7 +0.38 65 29
126 Liberty 71.7 +0.37 65 30
127 Houston Christian 71.6 +0.36 65 25
128 Youngstown State 71.6 +0.36 65 32
129 Kennesaw State 71.6 +0.36 64 27
130 UNC Wilmington 71.6 +0.35 64 34
131 Portland State 71.6 +0.35 64 29
132 Purdue Fort Wayne 71.6 +0.35 63 31
133 UC Santa Barbara 71.5 +0.34 63 26
134 Providence 71.5 +0.34 63 33
135 Washington State 71.5 +0.33 63 37
136 Wyoming 71.5 +0.33 62 33
137 Sacred Heart 71.4 +0.32 62 29
138 UIC 71.3 +0.30 62 29
139 Yale 71.3 +0.29 61 30
140 Bucknell 71.2 +0.27 61 32
141 UMBC 71.1 +0.25 61 32
142 Colorado 71.1 +0.25 61 33
143 Central Arkansas 71.0 +0.24 60 29
144 Richmond 71.0 +0.24 60 37
145 Florida State 71.0 +0.24 60 31
146 Maryland 70.9 +0.22 59 32
147 Virginia Tech 70.8 +0.20 59 36
148 East Tennessee State 70.8 +0.20 59 30
149 Indiana 70.8 +0.20 59 35
150 Towson 70.8 +0.20 58 35
151 UT Rio Grande Valley 70.8 +0.19 58 29
152 Vanderbilt 70.8 +0.19 58 36
153 Quinnipiac 70.8 +0.19 58 30
154 New Mexico State 70.7 +0.18 57 31
155 George Mason 70.7 +0.18 57 30
156 Georgetown 70.7 +0.18 57 31
157 Kansas City 70.7 +0.18 56 27
158 Delaware 70.7 +0.17 56 35
159 Jacksonville State 70.7 +0.17 56 30
160 Washington 70.6 +0.16 56 32
161 Seton Hall 70.6 +0.16 55 31
162 Denver 70.6 +0.16 55 30
163 Florida 70.6 +0.15 55 34
164 Mississippi State 70.5 +0.13 54 34
165 South Carolina Upstate 70.4 +0.12 54 30
166 Grand Canyon 70.4 +0.11 54 29
167 Louisiana 70.3 +0.09 54 29
168 Wofford 70.2 +0.08 53 30
169 Boston University 70.1 +0.06 53 34
170 Southern 70.1 +0.06 53 29
171 Tennessee Tech 70.1 +0.05 53 30
172 Charlotte 70.0 +0.04 52 31
173 St. Bonaventure 70.0 +0.03 52 33
174 Morgan State 70.0 +0.03 52 24
175 Wisconsin 69.9 +0.02 51 33
176 Manhattan 69.9 +0.01 51 29
177 Detroit Mercy 69.9 +0.01 51 29
178 UCF 69.8 +0.00 51 30
179 Georgia 69.8 -0.00 50 32
180 Hartford 69.8 -0.00 50 32
181 Bradley 69.8 -0.01 50 30
182 Kent State 69.8 -0.02 49 32
183 South Carolina State 69.8 -0.02 49 28
184 Utah 69.7 -0.02 49 31
185 Omaha 69.7 -0.03 49 29
186 South Carolina 69.7 -0.03 48 30
187 Utah Valley 69.7 -0.03 48 30
188 Mercer 69.6 -0.04 48 31
189 Western Carolina 69.6 -0.04 47 31
190 Harvard 69.6 -0.05 47 23
191 South Alabama 69.5 -0.06 47 30
192 Saint Mary's 69.5 -0.06 47 33
193 Coastal Carolina 69.5 -0.07 46 29
194 Prairie View A&M 69.5 -0.07 46 27
195 Montana 69.4 -0.08 46 29
196 Cincinnati 69.4 -0.09 46 32
197 Brown 69.3 -0.11 45 27
198 UL Monroe 69.3 -0.12 45 28
199 Dayton 69.2 -0.12 45 35
200 Creighton 69.2 -0.13 44 35
201 Loyola Marymount 69.1 -0.14 44 28
202 Arkansas State 69.1 -0.15 44 26
203 Army 69.1 -0.15 44 29
204 Oklahoma 69.1 -0.16 43 35
205 Texas Southern 69.0 -0.16 43 32
206 Kansas State 69.0 -0.17 43 31
207 Alabama State 69.0 -0.17 42 30
208 UNLV 68.9 -0.19 42 31
209 California Baptist 68.8 -0.20 42 31
210 North Dakota 68.8 -0.20 42 29
211 Eastern Michigan 68.8 -0.21 41 30
212 Northern Kentucky 68.8 -0.21 41 30
213 Texas 68.8 -0.21 41 34
214 Akron 68.8 -0.21 41 32
215 East Carolina 68.8 -0.21 40 30
216 Marist 68.8 -0.21 40 30
217 Tennessee State 68.8 -0.21 40 30
218 Cal State Fullerton 68.6 -0.24 39 30
219 Monmouth 68.6 -0.24 39 34
220 Florida International 68.6 -0.25 39 30
221 Morehead State 68.6 -0.25 39 31
222 Valparaiso 68.6 -0.25 38 30
223 Rutgers 68.5 -0.27 38 32
224 TCU 68.5 -0.27 38 34
225 Wichita State 68.5 -0.27 37 28
226 Georgia State 68.5 -0.28 37 26
227 West Virginia 68.5 -0.28 37 33
228 Robert Morris 68.4 -0.28 37 31
229 Lehigh 68.4 -0.29 36 31
230 UC San Diego 68.4 -0.29 36 27
231 George Washington 68.4 -0.29 36 30
232 Oklahoma State 68.4 -0.29 35 30
233 Oregon State 68.3 -0.31 35 31
234 Texas State 68.3 -0.31 35 26
235 Indiana State 68.2 -0.33 35 28
236 Ole Miss 68.1 -0.34 34 32
237 UTEP 68.1 -0.35 34 32
238 Utah Tech 68.1 -0.35 34 27
239 Bellarmine 68.0 -0.38 34 29
240 North Carolina Central 67.9 -0.39 33 27
241 High Point 67.7 -0.43 33 29
242 Boise State 67.7 -0.43 33 34
243 Saint Joseph's 67.6 -0.45 32 30
244 UC Davis 67.6 -0.45 32 22
245 Saint Francis 67.5 -0.47 32 29
246 La Salle 67.5 -0.47 32 30
247 UMass Lowell 67.5 -0.47 31 28
248 Georgia Tech 67.5 -0.47 31 31
249 Tulsa 67.4 -0.49 31 31
250 Rider 67.3 -0.50 30 32
251 Pepperdine 67.3 -0.50 30 31
252 Gardner-Webb 67.3 -0.51 30 28
253 Louisville 67.3 -0.51 30 32
254 Canisius 67.3 -0.51 29 31
255 Fairleigh Dickinson 67.2 -0.52 29 26
256 Mississippi Valley State 67.2 -0.53 29 28
257 Lafayette 67.1 -0.54 28 29
258 Troy 67.1 -0.56 28 29
259 VCU 67.1 -0.56 28 32
260 Hawai'i 67.0 -0.56 28 26
261 Rhode Island 67.0 -0.56 27 30
262 Minnesota 67.0 -0.57 27 30
263 Boston College 66.9 -0.58 27 33
264 Coppin State 66.9 -0.58 27 32
265 Stetson 66.8 -0.60 26 26
266 UT Martin 66.8 -0.61 26 28
267 Temple 66.8 -0.62 26 29
268 SIU Edwardsville 66.7 -0.62 25 30
269 New Hampshire 66.7 -0.62 25 26
270 Columbia 66.6 -0.65 25 25
271 Fairfield 66.5 -0.66 25 32
272 Alcorn State 66.5 -0.66 24 34
273 Dartmouth 66.5 -0.68 24 24
274 Stanford 66.4 -0.70 24 32
275 Saint Peter's 66.4 -0.70 23 33
276 Siena 66.3 -0.72 23 29
277 Fordham 66.1 -0.75 23 32
278 Loyola Maryland 66.0 -0.76 23 29
279 Old Dominion 66.0 -0.76 22 31
280 Fresno State 66.0 -0.77 22 35
281 Central Michigan 65.9 -0.78 22 30
282 Niagara 65.9 -0.80 22 29
283 North Carolina A&T 65.7 -0.83 21 29
284 Binghamton 65.7 -0.84 21 27
285 St. Francis Brooklyn 65.7 -0.84 21 29
286 Iowa State 65.6 -0.85 20 35
287 Sam Houston 65.5 -0.87 20 30
288 East Texas A&M 65.5 -0.87 20 2
289 Northern Arizona 65.4 -0.89 20 30
290 San Diego State 65.4 -0.89 19 32
291 Arizona State 65.4 -0.89 19 31
292 UC Riverside 65.3 -0.91 19 26
293 App State 65.3 -0.91 18 31
294 North Florida 65.2 -0.93 18 28
295 Pacific 65.2 -0.93 18 28
296 Presbyterian 65.2 -0.93 18 29
297 Duquesne 65.2 -0.93 17 30
298 Western Michigan 65.0 -0.97 17 28
299 Elon 65.0 -0.97 17 30
300 Grambling 65.0 -0.97 16 30
301 Incarnate Word 65.0 -0.98 16 29
302 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 64.9 -0.99 16 29
303 UTSA 64.8 -1.01 16 29
304 UT Arlington 64.8 -1.02 15 27
305 Missouri 64.7 -1.04 15 32
306 Penn State 64.6 -1.05 15 31
307 UNC Greensboro 64.6 -1.05 15 31
308 Sacramento State 64.5 -1.07 14 27
309 Campbell 64.5 -1.07 14 26
310 Milwaukee 64.5 -1.08 14 31
311 Mount St. Mary's 64.4 -1.10 13 29
312 Northeastern 64.3 -1.12 13 31
313 Jacksonville 64.2 -1.13 13 27
314 North Texas 64.2 -1.13 13 30
315 Navy 64.2 -1.14 12 31
316 North Alabama 64.2 -1.14 12 26
317 Northern Illinois 64.1 -1.15 12 30
318 Little Rock 64.1 -1.16 11 25
319 San Diego 63.9 -1.19 11 29
320 UC Irvine 63.9 -1.19 11 23
321 Charleston Southern 63.9 -1.20 11 28
322 Southern Illinois 63.7 -1.24 10 30
323 Georgia Southern 63.6 -1.25 10 26
324 Florida A&M 63.6 -1.25 10 28
325 American University 63.5 -1.28 9 32
326 Hampton 63.2 -1.35 9 26
327 Tarleton State 63.1 -1.35 9 28
328 William & Mary 63.1 -1.35 9 31
329 Holy Cross 63.1 -1.36 8 29
330 Butler 63.1 -1.36 8 31
331 California 63.1 -1.36 8 32
332 Maryland Eastern Shore 62.8 -1.43 8 24
333 Southern Miss 62.7 -1.43 7 31
334 Austin Peay 62.6 -1.45 7 27
335 Bethune-Cookman 62.5 -1.47 7 29
336 NJIT 62.5 -1.48 6 28
337 San José State 62.5 -1.48 6 30
338 Virginia 62.4 -1.50 6 35
339 Idaho State 62.4 -1.51 6 28
340 Chicago State 62.1 -1.56 5 32
341 UAlbany 61.8 -1.61 5 31
342 Radford 61.8 -1.61 5 27
343 Cal State Bakersfield 61.8 -1.62 4 25
344 Central Connecticut 61.8 -1.62 4 32
345 Pittsburgh 61.5 -1.67 4 32
346 Alabama A&M 61.4 -1.69 4 30
347 Green Bay 61.2 -1.74 3 29
348 Jackson State 60.9 -1.80 3 30
349 Lamar 60.9 -1.80 3 27
350 Maine 60.7 -1.83 3 26
351 Delaware State 60.6 -1.86 2 25
352 Cal State Northridge 60.6 -1.87 2 28
353 Cal Poly 60.6 -1.87 2 27
354 Air Force 59.0 -2.18 1 29
355 Merrimack 58.9 -2.20 1 30
356 Evansville 58.8 -2.22 1 29
357 South Florida 57.5 -2.49 1 31
358 Eastern Illinois 54.3 -3.13 0 29
359 IU Indianapolis 51.3 -3.74 0 27