The Predictor
Which single stat best picks winners?
For every stat, each completed game is scored by which team entered with the better season-to-date value — built only from snapshots dated before tip-off, so nothing leaks. AUC measures how well that ordering separates winners from losers (0.50 = coin flip, 1.00 = perfect); better team wins is the plain share of games won by the team entering with the better value. Single stats are weak predictors on their own — the prediction models combine dozens of them. As of 2022-04-05.
| Stat | Category | AUC | Better team wins | Games | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scoring Margin | Scoring | 0.750 | 68.8% | 5,259 | |
| Win Percentage (WP) | Results | 0.731 | 68.8% | 5,259 | |
| Offensive Efficiency | Efficiency | 0.710 | 66.0% | 5,259 | |
| Defensive Efficiency | Efficiency | 0.695 | 64.5% | 5,259 | |
| Total Rebound Percentage | Rebounding | 0.670 | 62.7% | 5,259 | |
| Points Per Game | Scoring | 0.669 | 62.2% | 5,259 | |
| True Shooting Percentage | Shooting | 0.668 | 62.1% | 5,259 | |
| Opponents' Opponents' Win Percentage (OOWP) | Results | 0.668 | 63.3% | 5,161 | |
| Field Goal Percentage | Shooting | 0.666 | 61.7% | 5,259 | |
| Effective Field Goal Percentage | Four Factors | 0.661 | 61.8% | 5,259 | |
| Opponent Points Per Game | Scoring | 0.657 | 61.6% | 5,259 | |
| Assist-to-Turnover Ratio | Playmaking | 0.651 | 61.0% | 5,259 | |
| Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage | Four Factors | 0.644 | 60.3% | 5,259 | |
| Assists Per Game | Playmaking | 0.626 | 59.1% | 5,259 | |
| Defensive Rebound Percentage | Four Factors | 0.612 | 57.8% | 5,259 | |
| Offensive Rebound Percentage | Four Factors | 0.606 | 58.0% | 5,259 | |
| Turnover Rate | Four Factors | 0.605 | 57.6% | 5,259 | |
| Rebounds Per Game | Rebounding | 0.604 | 58.1% | 5,259 | |
| Defensive Rebounds Per Game | Rebounding | 0.596 | 57.2% | 5,259 | |
| Three-Point Percentage | Shooting | 0.591 | 57.3% | 5,259 | |
| Block Percentage | Defense | 0.579 | 56.0% | 5,259 | |
| Free Throw Rate | Four Factors | 0.578 | 55.9% | 5,259 | |
| Steal Rate | Defense | 0.576 | 55.2% | 5,259 | |
| Opponent Turnover Rate | Four Factors | 0.567 | 54.4% | 5,259 | |
| Offensive Rebounds Per Game | Rebounding | 0.558 | 54.9% | 5,259 | |
| Opponent Free Throw Rate | Four Factors | 0.557 | 53.7% | 5,259 | |
| Personal Fouls Per Game | Defense | 0.553 | 54.0% | 5,259 | |
| Assisted Field Goal Percentage | Playmaking | 0.551 | 54.0% | 5,259 | |
| Free Throw Percentage | Shooting | 0.550 | 54.1% | 5,259 | |
| Opponents' Win Percentage (OWP) | Results | 0.538 | 53.2% | 5,161 | |
| Three-Point Attempt Rate | Shooting | 0.513 | 51.0% | 5,259 | |
| Pace | Efficiency | 0.499 | 50.2% | 5,259 | |
| Scoring Volatility | Scoring | 0.478 | 48.9% | 5,058 |
Rows in grey fall below AUC 0.55 — effectively no standalone predictive power. Defensive-direction stats are scored with their direction (lower is better) already applied.