Well New York City really has it all. "Sheena Is a Punk Rocker" - The Ramones

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min -17.1 max 21.0 mean -0.3 std 6.4 (n=359)

By Conference

A dot per team, best conference average at the top. The tick marks each conference's mean.

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.75 (team entering with the better value wins 69% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Rankings

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# Team Scoring Margin z Pctl GP
1 Gonzaga 21.0 +3.34 100 32
2 Houston 16.1 +2.58 100 38
3 Arizona 15.9 +2.55 99 37
4 Vermont 13.5 +2.17 99 33
5 Baylor 13.0 +2.09 99 34
6 Murray State 12.9 +2.08 99 31
7 Kentucky 12.9 +2.07 98 34
8 Duke 12.3 +1.98 98 39
9 Iowa 12.0 +1.94 98 36
10 Texas Tech 11.4 +1.85 97 37
11 UAB 11.0 +1.78 97 33
12 Auburn 11.0 +1.78 97 34
13 Kansas 11.0 +1.77 97 40
14 UCLA 10.9 +1.77 96 35
15 Purdue 10.9 +1.77 96 37
16 Tennessee 10.5 +1.70 96 35
17 Loyola Chicago 10.5 +1.70 96 32
18 South Dakota State 10.4 +1.68 95 33
19 UConn 9.5 +1.55 95 33
20 Toledo 9.5 +1.54 95 33
21 LSU 9.1 +1.49 94 34
22 Belmont 9.1 +1.47 94 32
23 Villanova 9.0 +1.47 94 38
24 San Francisco 8.9 +1.45 94 33
25 Davidson 8.5 +1.39 93 33
26 Wake Forest 8.5 +1.38 93 35
27 Grand Canyon 8.4 +1.37 93 29
28 Towson 8.4 +1.37 92 35
29 Saint Mary's 8.2 +1.35 92 33
30 Texas 8.1 +1.33 92 34
31 Dayton 8.0 +1.31 92 35
32 Virginia Tech 8.0 +1.31 91 36
33 Wagner 7.9 +1.29 91 26
34 North Texas 7.7 +1.26 91 30
35 Arkansas 7.6 +1.25 91 37
36 Furman 7.6 +1.25 90 33
37 Colgate 7.4 +1.21 90 34
38 San Diego State 7.3 +1.19 90 32
39 Missouri State 7.2 +1.19 89 33
40 Illinois 7.2 +1.18 89 33
41 Chattanooga 7.1 +1.16 89 33
42 Memphis 6.8 +1.12 89 33
43 Colorado State 6.7 +1.11 88 30
44 Boise State 6.7 +1.10 88 34
45 SMU 6.7 +1.10 88 33
46 North Carolina 6.6 +1.09 87 39
47 Princeton 6.6 +1.09 87 28
48 Iona 6.6 +1.09 87 33
49 Washington State 6.6 +1.09 87 37
50 Fresno State 6.4 +1.06 86 35
51 USC 6.4 +1.06 86 34
52 Saint Louis 6.4 +1.05 86 34
53 Drake 6.3 +1.04 85 34
54 Seattle U 6.1 +1.00 85 30
55 Utah State 5.9 +0.97 85 33
56 New Mexico State 5.9 +0.97 85 31
57 Liberty 5.9 +0.97 84 30
58 Longwood 5.8 +0.97 84 29
59 UC Santa Barbara 5.8 +0.96 84 26
60 Wyoming 5.8 +0.96 84 33
61 Ohio 5.7 +0.94 83 34
62 Middle Tennessee 5.7 +0.94 83 35
63 Texas A&M 5.5 +0.92 83 39
64 St. John's 5.4 +0.91 82 32
65 Norfolk State 5.4 +0.90 82 28
66 Santa Clara 5.4 +0.89 82 33
67 Providence 5.3 +0.89 82 33
68 Montana State 5.3 +0.88 81 33
69 Louisiana Tech 5.1 +0.86 81 31
70 Buffalo 5.1 +0.85 81 28
71 Ohio State 5.1 +0.85 80 32
72 Xavier 4.9 +0.82 80 36
73 Notre Dame 4.9 +0.81 80 34
74 Akron 4.8 +0.81 80 32
75 BYU 4.8 +0.81 79 33
76 VCU 4.7 +0.78 79 32
77 Indiana 4.6 +0.78 79 35
78 Bradley 4.6 +0.77 78 30
79 Florida Atlantic 4.5 +0.75 78 31
80 Abilene Christian 4.3 +0.73 78 32
81 Mississippi State 4.2 +0.72 78 34
82 Morehead State 4.2 +0.72 77 31
83 Seton Hall 4.2 +0.72 77 31
84 Florida 4.1 +0.69 77 34
85 Stephen F. Austin 4.0 +0.69 77 28
86 Oklahoma 4.0 +0.68 76 35
87 Wisconsin 4.0 +0.68 76 33
88 Utah Valley 4.0 +0.67 76 30
89 Cleveland State 3.9 +0.66 75 29
90 South Alabama 3.8 +0.65 75 30
91 Colorado 3.7 +0.63 75 33
92 Oral Roberts 3.6 +0.62 75 28
93 Jacksonville State 3.6 +0.62 74 30
94 Miami 3.6 +0.62 74 37
95 Wofford 3.6 +0.61 74 30
96 TCU 3.6 +0.61 73 34
97 St. Bonaventure 3.5 +0.60 73 33
98 Weber State 3.5 +0.60 73 31
99 Saint Peter's 3.4 +0.59 73 33
100 Navy 3.4 +0.59 72 31
101 Clemson 3.3 +0.57 72 33
102 Michigan 3.2 +0.56 72 34
103 Michigan State 3.2 +0.56 72 36
104 Wright State 3.2 +0.55 71 35
105 Cincinnati 3.2 +0.55 71 32
106 Jacksonville 3.1 +0.55 71 27
107 Coastal Carolina 3.1 +0.53 70 29
108 Western Kentucky 3.1 +0.53 70 30
109 North Dakota State 3.1 +0.53 70 31
110 Southern Utah 3.1 +0.53 70 33
111 Iowa State 3.1 +0.53 69 35
112 Alabama 3.0 +0.53 69 33
113 Northern Kentucky 3.0 +0.52 69 30
114 Texas State 3.0 +0.52 68 26
115 Vanderbilt 2.9 +0.51 68 36
116 Kent State 2.9 +0.51 68 32
117 Texas Southern 2.9 +0.51 68 32
118 Creighton 2.8 +0.49 67 35
119 Oklahoma State 2.7 +0.48 67 30
120 Bryant 2.6 +0.46 67 31
121 UNLV 2.6 +0.46 66 31
122 Richmond 2.6 +0.46 66 37
123 Hawai'i 2.5 +0.45 66 26
124 Oakland 2.5 +0.45 66 30
125 UC Irvine 2.5 +0.45 65 23
126 Marquette 2.4 +0.43 65 32
127 Hofstra 2.4 +0.43 65 30
128 Northern Iowa 2.4 +0.42 65 31
129 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 2.3 +0.42 64 31
130 Syracuse 2.3 +0.41 64 33
131 Virginia 2.3 +0.41 64 35
132 Nicholls 2.3 +0.41 63 29
133 Boston University 2.3 +0.41 63 34
134 Cal State Fullerton 2.2 +0.40 63 30
135 George Mason 2.2 +0.40 63 30
136 UNC Wilmington 2.2 +0.39 62 34
137 Wichita State 2.1 +0.38 62 28
138 Southern Illinois 2.1 +0.38 62 30
139 Delaware 2.1 +0.38 61 35
140 Gardner-Webb 2.1 +0.38 61 28
141 Winthrop 2.1 +0.38 61 29
142 Oregon 2.0 +0.37 61 34
143 Rutgers 2.0 +0.36 60 32
144 Florida Gulf Coast 1.8 +0.34 60 32
145 Northwestern 1.8 +0.33 60 30
146 Howard 1.8 +0.33 59 26
147 Charleston 1.8 +0.33 59 32
148 Southern 1.7 +0.32 59 29
149 Rhode Island 1.7 +0.32 59 30
150 Drexel 1.6 +0.30 58 28
151 UCF 1.6 +0.30 58 30
152 Kansas State 1.5 +0.30 58 31
153 Tulane 1.4 +0.27 58 29
154 Monmouth 1.3 +0.26 57 34
155 Sam Houston 1.2 +0.25 57 30
156 Yale 1.2 +0.25 57 30
157 South Dakota 1.2 +0.24 56 29
158 DePaul 1.1 +0.22 56 31
159 Purdue Fort Wayne 1.1 +0.22 56 31
160 UC Riverside 1.0 +0.20 56 26
161 Campbell 0.9 +0.20 55 26
162 New Hampshire 0.9 +0.19 55 26
163 Youngstown State 0.8 +0.18 55 32
164 UNC Asheville 0.8 +0.17 54 29
165 UTEP 0.8 +0.17 54 32
166 Marist 0.6 +0.15 54 30
167 UC Davis 0.6 +0.15 54 22
168 UMBC 0.4 +0.12 53 32
169 Temple 0.3 +0.10 53 29
170 Arkansas State 0.2 +0.09 53 26
171 Georgia State 0.2 +0.09 53 26
172 Fairfield 0.2 +0.09 52 32
173 Maryland 0.2 +0.09 52 32
174 Louisiana 0.2 +0.08 52 29
175 Cornell 0.0 +0.06 51 24
176 App State 0.0 +0.05 51 31
177 East Texas A&M 0.0 +0.05 51 2
178 Troy -0.0 +0.05 51 29
179 Eastern Washington -0.1 +0.04 50 32
180 Niagara -0.1 +0.04 50 29
181 California Baptist -0.2 +0.02 50 31
182 Kansas City -0.3 +0.01 49 27
183 Montana -0.3 +0.01 49 29
184 Penn State -0.4 -0.01 49 31
185 VMI -0.4 -0.01 49 29
186 UMass Lowell -0.4 -0.01 48 28
187 Loyola Maryland -0.4 -0.02 48 29
188 Harvard -0.5 -0.02 48 23
189 UNC Greensboro -0.5 -0.02 47 31
190 West Virginia -0.5 -0.03 47 33
191 Ole Miss -0.5 -0.03 47 32
192 Long Island University -0.6 -0.04 47 29
193 Portland -0.6 -0.04 46 32
194 Fordham -0.7 -0.06 46 32
195 LSU New Orleans -0.7 -0.06 46 29
196 Western Illinois -0.8 -0.08 46 30
197 Northern Colorado -0.9 -0.08 45 35
198 Florida State -0.9 -0.09 45 31
199 Long Beach State -1.0 -0.10 45 31
200 Mount St. Mary's -1.0 -0.10 44 29
201 Utah -1.2 -0.13 44 31
202 Boston College -1.2 -0.13 44 33
203 Charlotte -1.2 -0.13 44 31
204 Stony Brook -1.2 -0.14 43 30
205 Old Dominion -1.2 -0.14 43 31
206 South Carolina -1.2 -0.14 43 30
207 Samford -1.2 -0.14 42 29
208 Detroit Mercy -1.3 -0.15 42 29
209 Quinnipiac -1.4 -0.16 42 30
210 Eastern Kentucky -1.4 -0.16 42 27
211 Brown -1.4 -0.17 41 27
212 Saint Joseph's -1.5 -0.18 41 30
213 Dartmouth -1.5 -0.18 41 24
214 Illinois State -1.5 -0.19 41 31
215 Rice -1.5 -0.19 40 31
216 Washington -1.7 -0.21 40 32
217 Arizona State -1.8 -0.24 40 31
218 Kennesaw State -1.9 -0.24 39 27
219 Tennessee State -2.0 -0.27 39 30
220 Portland State -2.0 -0.27 39 29
221 East Carolina -2.2 -0.29 39 30
222 Minnesota -2.2 -0.29 38 30
223 Miami (OH) -2.2 -0.29 38 29
224 Mercer -2.3 -0.30 38 31
225 Rider -2.3 -0.31 37 32
226 Stanford -2.3 -0.31 37 32
227 Hartford -2.3 -0.32 37 32
228 Nevada -2.4 -0.32 37 30
229 Massachusetts -2.4 -0.32 36 32
230 East Tennessee State -2.4 -0.32 36 30
231 UIC -2.4 -0.33 36 29
232 Valparaiso -2.4 -0.33 35 30
233 Bellarmine -2.5 -0.34 35 29
234 Southeast Missouri State -2.5 -0.34 35 30
235 Tulsa -2.5 -0.34 35 31
236 NC State -2.6 -0.35 34 32
237 Tarleton State -2.7 -0.37 34 28
238 Louisville -2.8 -0.38 34 32
239 Siena -2.9 -0.40 34 29
240 Army -3.0 -0.42 33 29
241 California -3.0 -0.42 33 32
242 James Madison -3.0 -0.42 33 27
243 New Mexico -3.1 -0.43 32 30
244 High Point -3.1 -0.44 32 29
245 Florida International -3.2 -0.45 32 30
246 Lehigh -3.3 -0.46 32 31
247 UC San Diego -3.3 -0.46 31 27
248 SE Louisiana -3.3 -0.46 31 30
249 Pennsylvania -3.4 -0.49 31 28
250 Ball State -3.4 -0.49 30 30
251 Manhattan -3.8 -0.54 30 29
252 Georgia Tech -3.8 -0.55 30 31
253 Merrimack -3.9 -0.55 30 30
254 North Carolina Central -3.9 -0.56 29 27
255 Georgia Southern -4.0 -0.58 29 26
256 UAlbany -4.0 -0.58 29 31
257 La Salle -4.0 -0.58 28 30
258 Denver -4.2 -0.60 28 30
259 Binghamton -4.2 -0.61 28 27
260 Tennessee Tech -4.2 -0.61 28 30
261 Bowling Green -4.4 -0.63 27 29
262 George Washington -4.5 -0.65 27 30
263 Jackson State -4.5 -0.66 27 30
264 Morgan State -4.5 -0.66 27 24
265 UT Arlington -4.6 -0.66 26 27
266 Alcorn State -4.6 -0.66 26 34
267 Sacred Heart -4.6 -0.67 26 29
268 South Carolina State -4.6 -0.68 25 28
269 Butler -4.7 -0.69 25 31
270 Marshall -4.7 -0.69 25 31
271 San Diego -4.8 -0.70 25 29
272 Northeastern -4.8 -0.70 24 31
273 The Citadel -4.8 -0.70 24 28
274 Presbyterian -4.8 -0.70 24 29
275 South Carolina Upstate -4.9 -0.72 23 30
276 Lipscomb -5.1 -0.75 23 30
277 Loyola Marymount -5.2 -0.76 23 28
278 Canisius -5.2 -0.77 23 31
279 Nebraska -5.3 -0.77 22 32
280 Radford -5.3 -0.78 22 27
281 Florida A&M -5.4 -0.79 22 28
282 Indiana State -5.4 -0.80 22 28
283 North Carolina A&T -5.4 -0.80 21 29
284 St. Francis Brooklyn -5.6 -0.82 21 29
285 St. Thomas -5.6 -0.82 21 27
286 Cal State Bakersfield -5.6 -0.82 20 25
287 Alabama A&M -5.6 -0.82 20 30
288 SIU Edwardsville -5.7 -0.84 20 30
289 Lafayette -5.9 -0.88 20 29
290 Maryland Eastern Shore -6.0 -0.88 19 24
291 UL Monroe -6.1 -0.91 19 28
292 Missouri -6.2 -0.91 19 32
293 Stetson -6.3 -0.93 18 26
294 Georgetown -6.3 -0.94 18 31
295 Pittsburgh -6.5 -0.97 18 32
296 Alabama State -6.6 -0.98 18 30
297 Austin Peay -6.6 -0.99 17 27
298 Saint Francis -6.7 -0.99 17 29
299 Sacramento State -6.7 -1.00 17 27
300 McNeese -6.7 -1.00 16 29
301 Prairie View A&M -6.8 -1.01 16 27
302 Milwaukee -6.9 -1.03 16 31
303 Air Force -7.0 -1.05 16 29
304 Robert Morris -7.0 -1.05 15 31
305 Grambling -7.3 -1.09 15 30
306 Cal Poly -7.3 -1.09 15 27
307 Northern Illinois -7.4 -1.11 15 30
308 South Florida -7.5 -1.12 14 31
309 American University -7.5 -1.12 14 32
310 Elon -7.5 -1.13 14 30
311 Hampton -7.6 -1.14 13 26
312 Coppin State -7.8 -1.16 13 32
313 Houston Christian -7.8 -1.17 13 25
314 Eastern Michigan -7.8 -1.18 13 30
315 Bethune-Cookman -8.0 -1.20 12 29
316 Utah Tech -8.0 -1.20 12 27
317 UT Martin -8.1 -1.22 12 28
318 North Alabama -8.1 -1.22 11 26
319 Duquesne -8.2 -1.23 11 30
320 Bucknell -8.3 -1.24 11 32
321 Idaho -8.4 -1.27 11 29
322 North Florida -8.4 -1.27 10 28
323 Pacific -8.4 -1.27 10 28
324 Green Bay -8.4 -1.27 10 29
325 NJIT -8.5 -1.28 9 28
326 Western Carolina -8.6 -1.29 9 31
327 Georgia -8.7 -1.31 9 32
328 UTSA -8.8 -1.32 9 29
329 UT Rio Grande Valley -8.9 -1.34 8 29
330 Holy Cross -9.0 -1.35 8 29
331 Northern Arizona -9.4 -1.42 8 30
332 Idaho State -9.7 -1.47 8 28
333 Oregon State -9.8 -1.49 7 31
334 Central Connecticut -10.3 -1.57 7 32
335 Pepperdine -10.5 -1.59 7 31
336 Cal State Northridge -10.6 -1.61 6 28
337 San José State -10.8 -1.64 6 30
338 Northwestern State -10.9 -1.65 6 29
339 Central Michigan -11.0 -1.68 6 30
340 Western Michigan -11.2 -1.71 5 28
341 North Dakota -11.3 -1.72 5 29
342 Little Rock -11.3 -1.72 5 25
343 Fairleigh Dickinson -11.9 -1.82 4 26
344 William & Mary -12.0 -1.84 4 31
345 Central Arkansas -12.1 -1.85 4 29
346 Chicago State -12.3 -1.87 4 32
347 Evansville -12.3 -1.88 3 29
348 Incarnate Word -12.7 -1.94 3 29
349 Columbia -12.9 -1.97 3 25
350 Maine -13.0 -1.99 3 26
351 Southern Miss -13.2 -2.02 2 31
352 Lamar -13.3 -2.03 2 27
353 Charleston Southern -13.4 -2.04 2 28
354 Arkansas-Pine Bluff -14.4 -2.20 1 29
355 Omaha -14.7 -2.26 1 29
356 Delaware State -15.2 -2.34 1 25
357 Mississippi Valley State -15.8 -2.42 1 28
358 Eastern Illinois -17.1 -2.63 0 29
359 IU Indianapolis -17.1 -2.63 0 27