We need the funk. "Give Up the Funk" - Parliament

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 0.0% max 90.3% mean 49.0% std 18.6% (n=359)

By Conference

A dot per team, best conference average at the top. The tick marks each conference's mean.

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.73 (team entering with the better value wins 69% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Rankings

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# Team Win Percentage (WP) z Pctl GP
1 Murray State 90.3% +2.22 100 31
2 Arizona 89.2% +2.16 100 37
3 Gonzaga 87.5% +2.07 99 32
4 Kansas 85.0% +1.93 99 40
5 South Dakota State 84.8% +1.92 99 33
6 Houston 84.2% +1.89 99 38
7 Auburn 82.4% +1.79 98 34
8 Duke 82.1% +1.77 98 39
9 Providence 81.8% +1.76 98 33
10 Vermont 81.8% +1.76 97 33
11 Colorado State 80.0% +1.66 97 30
12 Baylor 79.4% +1.63 97 34
13 Villanova 78.9% +1.61 97 38
14 Davidson 78.8% +1.60 96 33
15 Purdue 78.4% +1.58 96 37
16 New Mexico State 77.4% +1.52 96 31
17 Tennessee 77.1% +1.51 96 35
18 UCLA 77.1% +1.51 95 35
19 Wagner 76.9% +1.50 95 26
20 North Texas 76.7% +1.48 95 30
21 Boise State 76.5% +1.47 94 34
22 Kentucky 76.5% +1.47 94 34
23 USC 76.5% +1.47 94 34
24 Longwood 75.9% +1.44 94 29
25 Chattanooga 75.8% +1.43 93 33
26 Iona 75.8% +1.43 93 33
27 Montana State 75.8% +1.43 93 33
28 Saint Mary's 75.8% +1.43 92 33
29 Toledo 75.8% +1.43 92 33
30 UAB 75.8% +1.43 92 33
31 Wisconsin 75.8% +1.43 92 33
32 Arkansas 75.7% +1.43 91 37
33 Belmont 75.0% +1.39 91 32
34 Loyola Chicago 75.0% +1.39 91 32
35 Norfolk State 75.0% +1.39 91 28
36 Princeton 75.0% +1.39 90 28
37 North Carolina 74.4% +1.36 90 39
38 UNC Wilmington 73.5% +1.32 90 34
39 Texas Tech 73.0% +1.29 89 37
40 SMU 72.7% +1.27 89 33
41 Wyoming 72.7% +1.27 89 33
42 Grand Canyon 72.4% +1.26 89 29
43 Iowa 72.2% +1.25 88 36
44 San Diego State 71.9% +1.23 88 32
45 Towson 71.4% +1.20 88 35
46 Wake Forest 71.4% +1.20 87 35
47 Ohio 70.6% +1.16 87 34
48 Miami 70.3% +1.14 87 37
49 Seattle U 70.0% +1.13 87 30
50 Illinois 69.7% +1.11 86 33
51 San Francisco 69.7% +1.11 86 33
52 St. Bonaventure 69.7% +1.11 86 33
53 UConn 69.7% +1.11 85 33
54 Texas State 69.2% +1.08 85 26
55 Winthrop 69.0% +1.07 85 29
56 Akron 68.8% +1.06 85 32
57 VCU 68.8% +1.06 84 32
58 Dayton 68.6% +1.05 84 35
59 Middle Tennessee 68.6% +1.05 84 35
60 Bryant 67.7% +1.00 84 31
61 Louisiana Tech 67.7% +1.00 83 31
62 North Dakota State 67.7% +1.00 83 31
63 Drake 67.6% +1.00 83 34
64 Notre Dame 67.6% +1.00 82 34
65 BYU 66.7% +0.95 82 33
66 Memphis 66.7% +0.95 82 33
67 Missouri State 66.7% +0.95 82 33
68 Texas A&M 66.7% +0.95 81 39
69 Creighton 65.7% +0.90 81 35
70 Abilene Christian 65.6% +0.89 81 32
71 Kent State 65.6% +0.89 80 32
72 Richmond 64.9% +0.85 80 37
73 Colgate 64.7% +0.84 80 34
74 LSU 64.7% +0.84 80 34
75 Saint Louis 64.7% +0.84 79 34
76 Texas 64.7% +0.84 79 34
77 Morehead State 64.5% +0.83 79 31
78 Navy 64.5% +0.83 78 31
79 Seton Hall 64.5% +0.83 78 31
80 Stephen F. Austin 64.3% +0.82 78 28
81 Michigan State 63.9% +0.80 78 36
82 Virginia Tech 63.9% +0.80 77 36
83 Xavier 63.9% +0.80 77 36
84 Colorado 63.6% +0.78 77 33
85 Furman 63.6% +0.78 77 33
86 Saint Peter's 63.6% +0.78 76 33
87 Santa Clara 63.6% +0.78 76 33
88 Southern Utah 63.6% +0.78 76 33
89 Cal State Fullerton 63.3% +0.77 75 30
90 Hofstra 63.3% +0.77 75 30
91 Jacksonville State 63.3% +0.77 75 30
92 Liberty 63.3% +0.77 75 30
93 Jacksonville 63.0% +0.75 74 27
94 Delaware 62.9% +0.74 74 35
95 Fresno State 62.9% +0.74 74 35
96 Iowa State 62.9% +0.74 73 35
97 Florida Gulf Coast 62.5% +0.72 73 32
98 Ohio State 62.5% +0.72 73 32
99 Cleveland State 62.1% +0.70 73 29
100 Samford 62.1% +0.70 72 29
101 Boston University 61.8% +0.68 72 34
102 Monmouth 61.8% +0.68 72 34
103 TCU 61.8% +0.68 72 34
104 Northern Iowa 61.3% +0.66 71 31
105 Purdue Fort Wayne 61.3% +0.66 71 31
106 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 61.3% +0.66 71 31
107 Weber State 61.3% +0.66 70 31
108 Buffalo 60.7% +0.63 70 28
109 Indiana 60.0% +0.59 70 35
110 Northern Kentucky 60.0% +0.59 70 30
111 Oakland 60.0% +0.59 69 30
112 South Alabama 60.0% +0.59 69 30
113 UCF 60.0% +0.59 69 30
114 Utah Valley 60.0% +0.59 68 30
115 Virginia 60.0% +0.59 68 35
116 Wright State 60.0% +0.59 68 35
117 Yale 60.0% +0.59 68 30
118 Washington State 59.5% +0.56 67 37
119 Marquette 59.4% +0.55 67 32
120 Texas Southern 59.4% +0.55 67 32
121 Florida 58.8% +0.53 66 34
122 Nicholls 58.6% +0.51 66 29
123 South Dakota 58.6% +0.51 66 29
124 Temple 58.6% +0.51 66 29
125 Troy 58.6% +0.51 65 29
126 Long Beach State 58.1% +0.48 65 31
127 Arkansas State 57.7% +0.46 65 26
128 Georgia State 57.7% +0.46 65 26
129 Hawai'i 57.7% +0.46 64 26
130 UC Santa Barbara 57.7% +0.46 64 26
131 Alabama 57.6% +0.46 64 33
132 Northern Colorado 57.1% +0.43 63 35
133 Oral Roberts 57.1% +0.43 63 28
134 South Carolina 56.7% +0.41 63 30
135 Stony Brook 56.7% +0.41 63 30
136 Western Kentucky 56.7% +0.41 62 30
137 Wofford 56.7% +0.41 62 30
138 UC Irvine 56.5% +0.40 62 23
139 Rutgers 56.3% +0.39 61 32
140 UTEP 56.3% +0.39 61 32
141 Michigan 55.9% +0.37 61 34
142 Oregon 55.9% +0.37 61 34
143 Kansas City 55.6% +0.35 60 27
144 Bellarmine 55.2% +0.33 60 29
145 Charlotte 54.8% +0.31 60 31
146 Florida State 54.8% +0.31 59 31
147 UNLV 54.8% +0.31 59 31
148 UC Davis 54.5% +0.30 59 22
149 Oklahoma 54.3% +0.28 59 35
150 Cornell 54.2% +0.28 58 24
151 UC Riverside 53.8% +0.26 58 26
152 Gardner-Webb 53.6% +0.24 58 28
153 Wichita State 53.6% +0.24 58 28
154 Bradley 53.3% +0.23 57 30
155 Sam Houston 53.3% +0.23 57 30
156 Charleston 53.1% +0.22 57 32
157 Cincinnati 53.1% +0.22 56 32
158 Portland 53.1% +0.22 56 32
159 St. John's 53.1% +0.22 56 32
160 UMBC 53.1% +0.22 56 32
161 Washington 53.1% +0.22 55 32
162 Youngstown State 53.1% +0.22 55 32
163 Mississippi State 52.9% +0.21 55 34
164 Vanderbilt 52.8% +0.20 54 36
165 Coastal Carolina 51.7% +0.14 54 29
166 Long Island University 51.7% +0.14 54 29
167 Montana 51.7% +0.14 54 29
168 LSU New Orleans 51.7% +0.14 53 29
169 Siena 51.7% +0.14 53 29
170 Southern 51.7% +0.14 53 29
171 App State 51.6% +0.14 53 31
172 Florida Atlantic 51.6% +0.14 52 31
173 UNC Greensboro 51.6% +0.14 52 31
174 Clemson 51.5% +0.13 52 33
175 Utah State 51.5% +0.13 51 33
176 Alcorn State 50.0% +0.05 51 34
177 Campbell 50.0% +0.05 51 26
178 Drexel 50.0% +0.05 51 28
179 East Carolina 50.0% +0.05 50 30
180 East Texas A&M 50.0% +0.05 50 2
181 Eastern Washington 50.0% +0.05 50 32
182 Fordham 50.0% +0.05 49 32
183 Howard 50.0% +0.05 49 26
184 New Hampshire 50.0% +0.05 49 26
185 Oklahoma State 50.0% +0.05 49 30
186 SE Louisiana 50.0% +0.05 48 30
187 Southern Illinois 50.0% +0.05 48 30
188 Stanford 50.0% +0.05 48 32
189 Syracuse 48.5% -0.03 47 33
190 West Virginia 48.5% -0.03 47 33
191 California Baptist 48.4% -0.04 47 31
192 DePaul 48.4% -0.04 47 31
193 Louisiana 48.3% -0.04 46 29
194 Manhattan 48.3% -0.04 46 29
195 Tulane 48.3% -0.04 46 29
196 UNC Asheville 48.3% -0.04 46 29
197 James Madison 48.1% -0.05 45 27
198 Maryland 46.9% -0.12 45 32
199 Massachusetts 46.9% -0.12 45 32
200 George Mason 46.7% -0.13 44 30
201 Marist 46.7% -0.13 44 30
202 Merrimack 46.7% -0.13 44 30
203 Northwestern 46.7% -0.13 44 30
204 Rhode Island 46.7% -0.13 43 30
205 Western Illinois 46.7% -0.13 43 30
206 Arizona State 45.2% -0.21 43 31
207 Kansas State 45.2% -0.21 42 31
208 Mercer 45.2% -0.21 42 31
209 Penn State 45.2% -0.21 42 31
210 Rice 45.2% -0.21 42 31
211 Army 44.8% -0.23 41 29
212 Detroit Mercy 44.8% -0.23 41 29
213 Loyola Maryland 44.8% -0.23 41 29
214 Mount St. Mary's 44.8% -0.23 41 29
215 Niagara 44.8% -0.23 40 29
216 San Diego 44.8% -0.23 40 29
217 UIC 44.8% -0.23 40 29
218 VMI 44.8% -0.23 39 29
219 North Carolina Central 44.4% -0.25 39 27
220 Fairfield 43.8% -0.28 39 32
221 Harvard 43.5% -0.30 39 23
222 Ball State 43.3% -0.31 38 30
223 East Tennessee State 43.3% -0.31 38 30
224 Florida International 43.3% -0.31 38 30
225 Minnesota 43.3% -0.31 37 30
226 Quinnipiac 43.3% -0.31 37 30
227 South Carolina Upstate 43.3% -0.31 37 30
228 Pennsylvania 42.9% -0.33 37 28
229 South Carolina State 42.9% -0.33 36 28
230 UMass Lowell 42.9% -0.33 36 28
231 UAlbany 41.9% -0.38 36 31
232 Portland State 41.4% -0.41 35 29
233 Brown 40.7% -0.45 35 27
234 UC San Diego 40.7% -0.45 35 27
235 Louisville 40.6% -0.45 35 32
236 Ole Miss 40.6% -0.45 34 32
237 Rider 40.6% -0.45 34 32
238 Alabama A&M 40.0% -0.49 34 30
239 George Washington 40.0% -0.49 34 30
240 Nevada 40.0% -0.49 33 30
241 Southeast Missouri State 40.0% -0.49 33 30
242 Tennessee State 40.0% -0.49 33 30
243 Valparaiso 40.0% -0.49 32 30
244 Boston College 39.4% -0.52 32 33
245 Florida A&M 39.3% -0.52 32 28
246 Tarleton State 39.3% -0.52 32 28
247 Butler 38.7% -0.56 31 31
248 Lehigh 38.7% -0.56 31 31
249 Old Dominion 38.7% -0.56 31 31
250 Georgia Southern 38.5% -0.57 30 26
251 Air Force 37.9% -0.60 30 29
252 Bowling Green 37.9% -0.60 30 29
253 High Point 37.9% -0.60 30 29
254 Miami (OH) 37.9% -0.60 29 29
255 California 37.5% -0.62 29 32
256 Morgan State 37.5% -0.62 29 24
257 Hartford 37.5% -0.62 28 32
258 Austin Peay 37.0% -0.65 28 27
259 Binghamton 37.0% -0.65 28 27
260 Jackson State 36.7% -0.67 28 30
261 La Salle 36.7% -0.67 27 30
262 Lipscomb 36.7% -0.67 27 30
263 New Mexico 36.7% -0.67 27 30
264 Saint Joseph's 36.7% -0.67 27 30
265 Loyola Marymount 35.7% -0.72 26 28
266 NJIT 35.7% -0.72 26 28
267 The Citadel 35.7% -0.72 26 28
268 UL Monroe 35.7% -0.72 25 28
269 Georgia Tech 35.5% -0.73 25 31
270 Illinois State 35.5% -0.73 25 31
271 Tulsa 35.5% -0.73 25 31
272 Utah 35.5% -0.73 24 31
273 Missouri 34.4% -0.79 24 32
274 NC State 34.4% -0.79 24 32
275 Pittsburgh 34.4% -0.79 23 32
276 Dartmouth 33.3% -0.84 23 24
277 Denver 33.3% -0.84 23 30
278 Eastern Kentucky 33.3% -0.84 23 27
279 Grambling 33.3% -0.84 22 30
280 Kennesaw State 33.3% -0.84 22 27
281 Maryland Eastern Shore 33.3% -0.84 22 24
282 Radford 33.3% -0.84 22 27
283 Sacramento State 33.3% -0.84 21 27
284 UT Arlington 33.3% -0.84 21 27
285 Utah Tech 33.3% -0.84 21 27
286 Canisius 32.3% -0.90 20 31
287 Marshall 32.3% -0.90 20 31
288 Western Carolina 32.3% -0.90 20 31
289 American University 31.3% -0.96 20 32
290 Nebraska 31.3% -0.96 19 32
291 Central Arkansas 31.0% -0.97 19 29
292 Lafayette 31.0% -0.97 19 29
293 North Carolina A&T 31.0% -0.97 18 29
294 Presbyterian 31.0% -0.97 18 29
295 Sacred Heart 31.0% -0.97 18 29
296 St. Francis Brooklyn 31.0% -0.97 18 29
297 Alabama State 30.0% -1.02 17 30
298 Eastern Michigan 30.0% -1.02 17 30
299 Northern Illinois 30.0% -1.02 17 30
300 SIU Edwardsville 30.0% -1.02 16 30
301 Tennessee Tech 30.0% -1.02 16 30
302 Prairie View A&M 29.6% -1.04 16 27
303 Milwaukee 29.0% -1.08 16 31
304 Northeastern 29.0% -1.08 15 31
305 Indiana State 28.6% -1.10 15 28
306 North Florida 28.6% -1.10 15 28
307 Bucknell 28.1% -1.12 15 32
308 Coppin State 28.1% -1.12 14 32
309 Houston Christian 28.0% -1.13 14 25
310 Bethune-Cookman 27.6% -1.15 14 29
311 Saint Francis 27.6% -1.15 13 29
312 Hampton 26.9% -1.19 13 26
313 Stetson 26.9% -1.19 13 26
314 Elon 26.7% -1.20 13 30
315 St. Thomas 25.9% -1.24 12 27
316 South Florida 25.8% -1.25 12 31
317 Central Connecticut 25.0% -1.29 12 32
318 Holy Cross 24.1% -1.34 11 29
319 Idaho 24.1% -1.34 11 29
320 McNeese 24.1% -1.34 11 29
321 UTSA 24.1% -1.34 11 29
322 Cal State Bakersfield 24.0% -1.35 10 25
323 Little Rock 24.0% -1.35 10 25
324 Central Michigan 23.3% -1.38 10 30
325 Northern Arizona 23.3% -1.38 9 30
326 San José State 23.3% -1.38 9 30
327 Robert Morris 22.6% -1.42 9 31
328 Cal Poly 22.2% -1.44 9 27
329 Chicago State 21.9% -1.46 8 32
330 Cal State Northridge 21.4% -1.48 8 28
331 Pacific 21.4% -1.48 8 28
332 UT Martin 21.4% -1.48 8 28
333 Western Michigan 21.4% -1.48 7 28
334 Northwestern State 20.7% -1.52 7 29
335 UT Rio Grande Valley 20.7% -1.52 7 29
336 Duquesne 20.0% -1.56 6 30
337 Georgetown 19.4% -1.59 6 31
338 Pepperdine 19.4% -1.59 6 31
339 North Alabama 19.2% -1.60 6 26
340 Georgia 18.8% -1.63 5 32
341 Idaho State 17.9% -1.68 5 28
342 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 17.2% -1.71 5 29
343 Evansville 17.2% -1.71 4 29
344 Incarnate Word 17.2% -1.71 4 29
345 Southern Miss 16.1% -1.77 4 31
346 Fairleigh Dickinson 15.4% -1.81 4 26
347 Green Bay 13.8% -1.89 3 29
348 North Dakota 13.8% -1.89 3 29
349 Omaha 13.8% -1.89 3 29
350 William & Mary 12.9% -1.94 3 31
351 Columbia 12.0% -1.99 2 25
352 Maine 11.5% -2.01 2 26
353 Charleston Southern 10.7% -2.06 2 28
354 Eastern Illinois 10.3% -2.08 1 29
355 Oregon State 9.7% -2.11 1 31
356 Mississippi Valley State 7.1% -2.25 1 28
357 IU Indianapolis 3.7% -2.44 1 27
358 Delaware State 0.0% -2.63 0 25
359 Lamar 0.0% -2.63 0 27