Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | NOLA +100 RGV -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +19 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | RGV -0.2 (-18.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (+17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NOLA -0.1 (-19.1) | 146.2 (+24.8) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RGV -0.3 (-18.7) | 147.3 (+23.7) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NOLA -0.7 (-19.7) | 145.9 (+25.1) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NOLA -0.6 (-19.6) | 147.8 (+23.2) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2025 | NOLA 85 – 69 RGV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | RGV 88 – 78 NOLA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | RGV 76 – 64 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 12-10 | 14-8 |
| Home | 5-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 9-11 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#206) | 0.8 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#207) | -0.41 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#202) | -0.22 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#187) | 0.494 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.5% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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