Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -200 MSU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +3 | 185 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -8.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (+30.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -4.7 (-7.7) | 154.6 (+30.4) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -3.6 (-6.6) | 154.0 (+31.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -4.5 (-7.5) | 149.9 (+35.1) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -4.8 (-7.8) | 150.4 (+34.6) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2025 | MSU 74 – 58 UNC |
| Mar 23, 2024 | UNC 85 – 69 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 17-3 |
| Home | 12-3 | 15-1 |
| Away | 6-6 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 17.0 (#13) | 9.0 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#24) | 1.83 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.41 (#20) | 3.13 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.727 (#9) | 0.550 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 22.1% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 12.4% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 35.8% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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