Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -102 MSU -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +16 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -1.2 (-17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -0.4 (-16.4) | 143.8 (-11.8) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -1.2 (-17.2) | 143.6 (-11.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -1.3 (-17.3) | 140.1 (-8.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -0.5 (-16.5) | 141.0 (-9.0) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 28, 2024 | MSU 94 – 91 UNC |
| Mar 23, 2024 | UNC 85 – 69 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-5 |
| Home | 18-0 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 14.4 (#25) | 13.1 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.23 (#14) | 2.41 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.05 (#13) | 3.06 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.644 (#22) | 0.628 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 45.8 | 43.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 41.7% |
| FT Rate | 34.3% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.2% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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