Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -125 BAY +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +1 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | UCF -2.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -4.7 (-5.7) | 161.1 (+11.9) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -2.4 (-3.4) | 158.0 (+15.0) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -4.5 (-5.5) | 158.7 (+14.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -4.6 (-5.6) | 160.9 (+12.1) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2025 | BAY 91 – 76 UCF |
| Feb 1, 2024 | BAY 77 – 69 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-5 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#49) | 12.1 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#23) | 1.53 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.53 (#26) | 2.18 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#26) | 0.530 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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