Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UCF +138 BAY -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +8 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -3.6 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -2.1 (-5.9) | 142.4 (+3.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -2.0 (-6.0) | 139.5 (+6.5) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -2.2 (-5.8) | 140.9 (+5.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -1.7 (-6.3) | 140.4 (+5.6) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | BAY 87 – 86 UCF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | BAY 91 – 76 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-8 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#59) | 16.5 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#76) | 2.05 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#83) | 2.66 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#82) | 0.592 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 41.0% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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