Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | TROY -230 GASO +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +16 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -5.2 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.6 (-24.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -3.8 (+12.2) | 155.0 (-17.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -5.1 (+10.9) | 156.1 (-18.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -3.7 (+12.3) | 153.1 (-15.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -3.8 (+12.2) | 153.6 (-15.6) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | TROY 83 – 78 GASO |
| Jan 31, 2025 | TROY 81 – 74 GASO |
| Feb 2, 2024 | TROY 84 – 63 GASO |
| Feb 5, 2022 | TROY 61 – 52 GASO |
| Feb 6, 2021 | GASO 79 – 64 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 9-7 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 80.3 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#155) | -4.6 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#121) | -0.35 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#147) | -0.68 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#73) | 0.475 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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