Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | TROY +100 GASO +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GASO +15 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -2.8 (-17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.6 (+15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -2.7 (-17.7) | 130.6 (+12.4) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -2.8 (-17.8) | 130.7 (+12.3) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -2.8 (-17.8) | 130.5 (+12.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -3.3 (-18.3) | 131.4 (+11.6) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | TROY 77 – 61 GASO |
| Jan 24, 2026 | TROY 83 – 78 GASO |
| Jan 31, 2025 | TROY 81 – 74 GASO |
| Feb 2, 2024 | TROY 84 – 63 GASO |
| Feb 5, 2022 | TROY 61 – 52 GASO |
Game Analysis
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