Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
| Money | MTSU +143 OHIO -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +12 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | OHIO -5.1 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.5 (+25.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -3.0 (-9.0) | 131.0 (+17.0) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -3.3 (-8.7) | 132.4 (+15.6) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -3.4 (-8.6) | 132.2 (+15.8) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -2.7 (-9.3) | 131.3 (+16.7) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 21, 2024 | MTSU 83 – 81 OHIO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#225) | 2.2 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#213) | -0.21 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#135) | -0.17 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#146) | 0.438 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.7% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 26.3% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.1% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 42.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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